I hope you are all keeping well after Make A Challenge won well for us last week. For The World Of Sport website I am going to keep the same system going, while aiming at three different types of bets. The NAP, for those who may not already know, will be the most confident bet of the day. The NB will be the next best meaning the one I think has a good chance of winning but not with the same confidence. Finally the EW for, punters who like a nice horse to place at a value price.
First of all we will focus on the NAP of the day.
This comes in the 2.50 with Bonarc. Here is how I predict the race will be run. Bonarc should really take the lead and go at a nice brisk pace with Presenting Meghan, I’m On Snap, and potentially Wat Ua Doin, up with the pace. I expect to see the likes of Bioverdia, Ally Cay and Imperial Blonde held up to challenge late. The rest of the field should not be much of a danger and need no real mention (although that comment has came back to haunt me in the past). With a circuit to go I would expect to see Bonarc beginning to stretch the field, as they take the huge climb up the back straight. I can see the likes of Bioverdia making a move around five furlongs out while Ally Cay slowly but surely picks off tiring rivals. This will ultimately be make or break for Bonarc here but her high cruising speed should be too hot to handle. Wat Ua Doin is one I would be keeping an eye on here though. The Dam is a maiden hurdle winner, while her half-sister is a listed winner at seven furlongs. There is good pace in the bloodline and she is definitely a dark horse, but Bonarc should be back to the level to win here after her latest second to Shewearsitwell, in Sligo.
Now we swiftly move onto the “next best” of the day.
Although the saying goes “we’ll save the best until last”, we will go with the next best in the final race of the day. The 5.25 is where I really like Shoe String. Amy Corrado gave this horse a brilliant ride from the front in Kilbeggan and I can honestly see her doing the same again. Expect to see her going to the front and setting a very decent pace. If she does, it will be difficult for this field to catch her. She was very Green last time out which is often expected from newcomers in races. This should not be the case today or at least, not as much. She is a more experienced filly now and she should prove to be a talented front running mare when hurdles are put in front of her in another year or less. I am excited about this one. The only reason I am not doing an indepth analysis of the race is because I simply do not know what quality these newcomers will be. Saying that, they would need to be an exceptional quality to match Shoe String here.
Finally, it’s time for the EW selection. At the time of writing I do not know the price but with the quality of the field here it should be an each-way price at the very least. The faith is put in Minella Away, in the 4.55.
This is how I see it going down. The pace will more than likely be made by Thatbeatsbanagher, who will almost surely be followed by Mary Of De Sorrows and Mossy White. In behind will more than likely be Canadian Steel, Castle Canny, Circling Moon and, potentially, Tricky Trix. The rest, including our selection, will either be held up or struggling to match the pace. With a circuit to go most of these will begin to tire. Thatbeatsbanagher will still be in front (hopefully), while the only ones possibly going with any promise are Mossy White, Circling Moon and still at the back of the field will be Minella Away. This part of the race will be crucial. Phillip Enright should start to make some progress here. Shooting up the outside quickly, making light work of tiring rivals and putting in a challenging effort at the last and possibly getting its head in front just at the right time.
The reason I am putting this as an each-way fancy is because the chance of Thatbeatsbanagher being lumped on is strong considering the form he is in. That could leave Minella Away not only opening up at a nice price but even drifting out before the off. It definitely has huge potential to place but it could well be the one that causes a bit of a shock, if nothing else.
That is all I have for Down Royal’s meeting on Friday. Stay tuned for more tips tomorrow. If you want to follow my tips for the whole day, you can do so by checking out my YouTube channel.
I hope I have chosen correctly and, if you are going to have a bet, I wish you the very best of luck.
Shane Rooney – The Peaky Blogger