We again have just one meeting today and I have already made a decision not to bet there myself. I see no point in guessing what is going to happen and as this is the first time I can ever remember this meeting taking place on soft ground, why get involved in that guessing game? The last five winners, for instance, won on either good, or good to firm and so this very much accounts for the lack of activity in the markets.
I’ll go through what I have, produce some scribblings for the Bullet but, what they will be worth given the potential for them swinging across the track of f the turn into the home straight, is anyone’s guess.
In the opened, the market has flirted with STORM DREAMER, who opened 11/4, came in to 2/1 but is already back out to 9/4. Nothing could be described as a “mover” here.
Two have come out of the 1-30pm event and it’s just a case of adjustments to the morning odds….nothing atttracting the punters at all.
All I am seeing at 2-00pm are drfiters….the favourite is 11/8 > 13/8, ONE IDEA, currently third best on the tissue, is 5/2 > 3/1, AOIFE’S JOY, who opened 4/1, is now 7/1….and I’m already feeling my decision not to bet today, is proving the right one.
The Class 3 at 2-30pm has two moving, one of which was my 20/80 a couple of days ago, when they ran on slop at Catterick. ZIP is 11/2 having opened 8/1 but I would not want to be backing a horse having it’s second run in three days, on slow ground.
The other one being backed is AMAYSMONT – 7/1 > 9/2. From the same yard as ZIP. This gelding is having just his fifth run on turf. Its only previous run on soft saw it finish 14th of 22, at Ascot, in June.
They go 7/1 the field at 3-00pm and over this sprint trip, I’d want to know how the jockeys have played it in the early races, to know if they are going to come across the track.
The morning favourite has been pulled out, it’s simply a mess and the markets are merely adjusting.
The Beverley Bullet at 3-30pm and let me tell you how this would usually go:
You want a horse aged 5+ onside as eight of the last 10 winners were of that age grouping. Eight of the last 10 winners also carried between 9st and 9st 6lb….and nine of the last 10 winners were in the front five on the tissue.
Eight of the last 10 winners were also drawn in stalls 1-4 so, if we have a horse in the front five on the tissue, aged 5+, carrying a weight that sits in that bracket above, that is drawn 1-4, we potentially have our winner:
The problem of course, is soft ground. He has run on it twice, finishing runner up at Thirsk on it, in 2018.
Maybe a 20/80 might yield a profit….maybe not? His trainer, Julie Camacho, has only run one in this, in the last 10 years….won….last years winner, JUDICIAL.
We have a five runner Class 5 next and all the money is for HMS PRESIDENT…but this horse has failed to deliver a punt on a couple of occasions this season. He’s up 5lb for coming second last time out, having been backed to win. The move from 10/3 > 2/1 suggests they want that money back. I should warn you, he has been beaten on both runs on soft, to date.
We do have what appears to be a proper plunge horse at 4-25pm….ARTISTIC VISION is now just 4/1 having opened at 8/1 and everything else in that market is going for a walk.
In the second of my rated races I’m pleased to see money now coming for one of my top three, HOOROO. Karl Burkes runner is now just 6/1, having opened at 14/1 last night. He has winning form on heavy and I’m seeing this punt as a better guide as to how that rack will ride, versus the going stick reading advising it is merely soft.
Best of luck today, if you get involved.