Ascot, Haydock and Thirsk “movers” and advice


Why do they refuse to provide a going stick reading at Thirsk? Why does the going stick reading and going description based on that reading, vary so wildly at Haydock? How can a going stick reading of 5 indicate soft, heavy in places when, at the same time last year, a going stick reading of 6.9 was called heavy (Turftrax going stick archive)?

What this means is, I produce no figures for either of those tracks. I’m more inclined to take Jim Crowley’s opinion of Haydock, “bottomless down the back, very hard work up the straight”.

I’ll start with Thirsk and in the opened my subscribed members at Post Racing were advised CARRIBEAN QUEEN was 25/1 > 12/1. It is now just 13/2 with everything else drifting like barges.

Still a 20/80 but nothing like as much of a one, as it was around 6-45am!

ALBA ROSE (1-50), is the one for money this morning, 6/4 > E….with again, the rest drifting. This looks one of the stronger favourites around today.

The 2-20pm sees a most definite “steamer” in DAWAAWEEN….11/2 > 11/4 with just DREAM WORLD offering anything remotely like market opposition. A dutch that pair might just bring home some profit.

I’m seeing money for four horses in the Nursery at 2-55pm and will skate straight past that.

In the Post Racing Newsletter that went out to subscribed members this morning, SHELIR was advised 8/1 > 4/1 and, at that time, was the only mover in the 3-30pm. Now, I’m seeing a ton of cash for ARCH MOON 7/1 > 7/2. My own play here will be a two horse dutch, even though I’ve noted ARCHEOLOGY being nibbled at….7/1 > 9/2, now back out to 5/1.

ISPAHAN was advised to my subscribed members as having been punted from 7/2 > 5/2 overnight. The horse is still being backed, now just 7/4 and ZEEBAND 5/2 > 15/8 has now joined him at the head of what looks a two horse tissue. ISPAHAN looks the strongest of this pair.

I had nothing to report regarding the 4-35 earlier today, but three now look a dutch, based on market movement….OUR LITTLE PONY 7/1 > 5/1, VENTUROUS 7/1 > 6/1 and AUTUMN FLIGHT 12/1 > 7/1.

Small stakes advised but a dutch, for sure.

A seriously competitive 20 runner Class 4 Handicap at 5-05pm and a race I would have loved to have produced figures for. No going stick reading, no interest in doing that.

The market isn’t giving much away right now and it’s a race I’ll watch only.

At Ascot we have another strong favourite in TWILIGHT CALLS (1-55). Post Racing subscribed members were advised this morning that it had been backed overnight, 9/4 > 5/4 and the best you can do now is evens. Nothing is being backed to beat it.

This morning that Newsletter advised of a Hannon runner being punted, MUAY THAI having opened 9/2 and at that time, trading 7/2. The best price you can now have about this newcomer is 15/8. I’m seeing place money coming for BALLYCONNEELY BOY, 16/1 > 9/1 but the market clearly seems to know this one of Hannon’s is a bit quick.

The 3-05pm did have a mover this morning, LA BARROSA had been 5/2, backed in to 11/10….now 11/8. Nothing else is being punted right now and I’d be inclined to think they have the right favourite.

The morning favourite at 3-40pm was drifting badly earlier on the 15/8 turning into 3/1….but they’ve had a go at that and he’s back into 5/2.

He is the only 3-y-o contesting the event and as you would expect, sits bottom of my ratings. It’s not a race that floats my boat at all and I’ll simply do as Stake Management suggests will produce a profit of any description.

MARRONIER (4-15), was a significant mover this morning, 9/2 > 11/4. It did go 5/2 a second ago but is now back out to 11/4. With money for nothing else in that race, I’ll go with the market….20/80.

My second rated race here is the 4-50pm. A bucket load of cash has been seen for WALHAAN, who has no chance on my numbers….6/1 > 11/4. I’ll see if I can add it to the Dutch to take a profit.

The 5-20pm is the most competitive race I have worked on for a few weeks now and they currently go 7/1 the field, my top rated horse, the 3-y-o PUNCHBOWL FLYER at the head of that tissue.

Several are now being backed at huge prices, HONORE DAUMIER 20/1 > 11/1, TRIGGERED 20/1 > 12/1 and GLOVES LYNCH 20/1 > 14/1 and I’m thinking, purely for sanity’s sake, I will just have a 20/80 my top rated horse.

The markets at Haydock are up and down like yo-yo’s….the first race on the card now seeing LIGHTLY SQUEEZED, who was 5/1 > 11/8 overnight, now back out to 5/2, as money comes for HAWRIDGE FLYER 15/2 > 5/1. FOLLOW INTELLO has also been backed this morning, 12/1 > 8/1.

A no bet race for me, not least because of the potential going issues.

Two have come out of the 2-45pm….but everything has drifted since with the exception of KORNFLAKE….25/1 > 14/1….another no play race at this end!

Two horses were advised as solid movers in the 3-20pm, in that morning Newsletter, BIELSA 11/4 > 2/1….now 15/8….and HYPERFOCUS 9/1 > 6/1….now 9/2.

I’d suggest a dutch that pair, looks a sensible option.

FOX HILL is now 9/1, having opened at 14/1, in that 3-50pm event. Nothing else is being punted, despite the odds of the rest lengthening.

The Hannon juvenile, TEODORINA, is the only runner being supported at 4-25pm. Now 6/4 having been 2/1 earlier, just MERE GREEN, who is standing firm at 3/1. I’ve seen nibbling of TIKI FIRE….12/1 > 9/1 and I’ll be expecting one of that trio to be in the winners circle.

FINOAH had been 15/2 whrn this market opened and subscribed Post Racing members were told that 3/1 was the best they could get at 7-00am. Now 7/2 as money comes for TRANCHEE (my own personal fancy for this race), 15/2 > 9/2.

Even though just 11 go to post, that’s one heck of a competitive race.

They have taken four out of the finale at 5-25pm and I’d simply run up a dutch the pair advised this morning, LUNAR JET / DARK LOCHNAGAR.

Despite the market adjusting, I’d still suggest the last name is a definite “mover”. It opened 10/1 last night, was 6/1 this morning….now just 3/1.

Best of luck….and don’t forget to tune in to the Post Racing Podcast at 4-00pm this afternoon!

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