I love working with the racing at Musselburgh. Making a profit from my betting has been like shelling peas when it comes to that track and hopefully today produces results similar to those seen most often. York is always a little trickier, but we’ll give it a good shot.
In my morning Newsletter to Post Racing subscribed members, I’d pointed out a move overnight for CANDESCENCE (1-50), 3/1 > 9/4. That one has now eased slightly (5/2), as money comes for THE FAST LION, 5/1 > 3/1 and MIDNIGHT POPPY, 28/1 > 10/1.
Given the absence of CANDESCENCE since the debut win, I’d be inclined to go 20/80 THE FAST LION.
My lone Rated race at Musselburgh (2-20pm), has a good old fashioned “steamer” in the shape of MAJALAAT, who was advised to Post Racing members this morning, as an OMM (overnight market mover).
The Ellison trained runner opened 14/1 but was half that price at 8-00am. This horse now trades 5/1 favourite and is most definitely into my dutch already, despite sitting 11th best on my figures.
I’m also now seeing money for HOW BIZARRE 14/1 > 8/1 (5th best on my numbers), and CABALLERO 16/1 > 7/1….who sits in my top three.
MAJALAAT is impossible to rate accurately, on account of the horse having had just four runs on turf. The last of those came in a Class 4, over six furlongs and he was keeping on at the end. The return to seven furlongs and a drop in Class….that will be the reason for the plunge.
Class 6 at 2-55pm and the market is saying nothing other than LARA SILVIA. Opened 12/1, now 15/2, and everything else is drifting. A course and distance winner here at this time of year last season, in this Class. Has been operating at Class 4 and 5 for most of this season and will find this easier. A 20/80.
At 3-30pm, MEWS HOUSE is being punted heavily. Opened 13/2, now the 4/1 clear favourite. MY KINDA DAY, first time tongue tie, has also been supported, 20/1 > 11/1 but the rest are being ignored. I’ll dutch that pair.
Two for money in the Class 6 at 4-00pm. SEA ART is now 5/1, having opened 8/1 and FLASH POINT, already advised to Post Racing subscribed members 25/1 > 10/1 overnight, is now just 15/2. Happy to dutch that pair, having already got on the OMM earlier this morning.
Another Class 6 at 4-30pm but again, two are being heavily supported.
PEERLESS PERCY 5/2 > 15/8 was advised to Post Racing members earlier today. We are now seeing support though for SPYCRACKER, 14/1 > 15/2, as the early support for HIGH FORT who opened 13/2, went 5/1, has now reverted back to that opening show of 13/2.
I’ll pop the three in a dutch and might even consider a cheeky exotic.
This meeting is choc full of poor racing and they end with two divisions of another Class 6.
In the 5-00pm, STRAIGHT ASH 10/1 > 7/1, and GHAYYAR 22/1 > 12/1, are the horse for money and if I’m miles ahead and the spuds do not need basting, I’ll pop a little dutch on.
GOD OF DREAMS would be the only runner in the 5-30pm, that could be described as “punted”….22/1 > 14/1. Franny Norton doesn’t get up to Musselburgh often and Keith Dalgleish has this one running for him, for the second time. Not sure what to expect from a 12 times raced maiden, that has hit the frame just once….but that run did come at this track and the step back up to a mile might help.
Some good racing at York and in the 1-00pm, it’s MAMBA WAMBA they want….5/2 > 11/8. The rest are completely friendless right now.
I’m very happy with my figures for the only race I have rated today at York. THIBAAN is clear top rated, well drawn, and the market agrees with my findings….advised a “mover” this morning, 4/1 > 10/3. You can get 7/2 now.
The one that interested me when Rating the race was LUIGI VAMPA, who attracted all the icons and wears blinkers first time this afternoon. Now 10/1 from 14/1, I’m pretty sure a 3-y-o will win this.
The 2-00pm was covered in the Friday Podcast and of the pair I mentioned it’s DAKOTA GOLD the punters prefer. JUDICIAL is taking a walk in the market, 3/1 > 5/1 and it is ARISTOCRATIC LADY now seeing money coming….13/2 > 9/2.
I’ll dutch the three mentioned.
ATHER opened 13/8 last night, was advised as Evens to my Post Racing subscribed members this morning, now trades 5/6. The market appears to have given up on the rest of them!
MR CHUA was advised as a mover last week and duly obliged. He was one of two mentioned this morning (6/1 > 4/1), the other being FRANKENSTELLA 7/2 > 11/4.
The last named is now trading 3/1, whilst money still comes for MR CHUA….now best priced 7/2.
I wil ldutch that pair and expect to profit as nothing else at all, is being supported against them.
We have a 17 runner Class 3 for 3-y-o’s next and it’s AMAYSMONT that is being supported e.w…..20/1 > 11/1. Not a race I’ll get involved in myself, as we have umpteen completely unexposed types in here so note taking only.
We conclude with an Apprentice Handicap at 4-10pm. The pair I mentioned in the Newsletter OMM’s section this morning, AWESOMEDUDE 7/2 > 9/4 and FIREWATER 7/1 > 4/1, can both now be backed at slightly longer odds….5/2 and 9/2 respectively.
Nothing is being supported to beat them but it’s not a race I’d be in a hurry to get involved in.
Have a great day and, be lucky!