Sometimes I just simply “know” when a horse is “off” and that was the case yesterday, with GAMBON, who was punted from an opening 5/1 into 9/4 favourite. I guess it comes from having done this stuff for years now and the signs become obvious….although they do still sometimes lose!
It is simply bonkers today, with far to much racing, the jockey pool spread far to thinly and so today, rather than go through every single race and put us all in the poorhouse by 7-00pm tonight, I’m looking for a few plays that will hopefully secure us a profit.
Sandown is chock full of Rated races, whilst Salisbury offers me none, and both Chester and Doncaster one a piece.
I’ll start at Chester and my Rated races. In the 5-10pm, my top rated horse, who has been absent for 734 days, has been smashed up in the betting since my morning Newsletter went out to Post Racing subscribed members….12/1 > 11/2….NATURAL HISTORY. I will still work a three horse dutch, my top three rated horses but, for sure, my confidence in that play has been bolstered by that move for the Balding runner.
In my first rated race there (4-00), LINCOLN PARK is most certainly the horse for money this morning….8/1 > 4/1….sits second best on my numbers. My top rated has little chance in that race, from that 12 draw. If he even manages a place, then Mr Bentley has performed a minor miracle.
I’ll dutch rated horses 2, 4 and 5….all three drawn absolutely where I’d want them.
At 3-30pm, a dutch SURREY PRIDE / CHICHESTER looks a profitable route. The market wants only this pair and it’s 10/1 bar, everything else in that race very much on the drift.
Sandown is “busy” for us….far to busy really….and the markets are fluctuating wildly with a flood of money now coming for MICHAELS CHOICE in the 1-25pm event. He wears a first time visor today and it would appear they expect it to work….6/1 > 3/1f….the overnight move for my top rated, RIO RONALDO has dried up and having been backed from 13/2 > 10/3, you can have 5/1 now. I’ll not play that race myself.
The 2-30 is my next Rated race and YES MY BOY was popular overnight 11/2 > 3/1…now 7/2….we have 5 x 3-y-o’s taking part here, impossible to rate accurately, and the five of them head the tissue. My ratings have two of them in my top three and I will simply dutch that pair….CAMPARI / DUBAI MIRAGE.
The 3-05pm looks a tough as old boots to work out and it’s 4/1 the field in a 10 runner handicap. CARDSHARP sits third best on my figures but is being backed….6/1 > 4/1f….whilst EBURY, my bottom rated horse, has been supported in from 7/1 > 9/2.
I’ll just have a 20/80 CARDSHARP.
Seven of the 10 going to post at 3-35pm are 3-y-o’s and it is a race I’d not trust my figures to do anything Trying to produce a figure for a horse having had just three or four races is impossible.
I’m seeing a flood of money for LAWAHED, 3/1 > 13/8….just four runs, blinkered first time today, and a beaten favourite last time out. I’d trust the market ahead of my numbers, here….that horse sits sixth best on the Ratings and I knew last night, that would be wrong.
When I’d finalised my work for the 4-05pm, I was happy with my figures, and think my top rated will run a big race….5/1 > 7/2 now. However, I’m not blind to the fact we have six 3-y-o’s in here and the second favourite, DUBAI WELCOME, who sits sixth best after just two racecourse appearances, was a beaten favourite last time out and also wears first time headgear today, could be anything….I cannot advise having a bet here.
Doncaster has been like akin to playing hopscotch on a minefield this week. Some of the results have been crazy but, it’s now mid September and I expect nothing less.
I have just one rated there today and it’s another I’ll simply not get involved in. GHALYOON runs second time following a wind-op and the money is for him….5/1 > 11/4….and he is well drawn…but it’s simply not a race I fancy working at all.
At Salisbury not a rated race in sight so it’s all about trusting to the runes.
There has been a big move for PREY FOR GLORY – 10/1 > 9/2 – in the first race on that card at 3-25pm. The market is telling us ALBANMAN, a Varian debutante, will not be winning it 9/4 > 10/3.
FREDDY FLINTSHIRE is 10/1 > 9/2 at 3-55pm, with IN THE BREEZE 5/2 > 2/1. Only this pair is being supported and a dutch looks a player.
Two non-runners in the Nursery and all I see are adjustments for those. EL PATRON was advised to Post Racing subscribed members as a mover last night 14/1 > 7/1 and he’s now bets priced 4/1.
MARIANCE is being supported at 5-00pm….13/2 > 9/2….and in that wonderful Class 6 at 5-30pm, it’s MOLLY SHAW, 4/1 > 2/1 the punters want.
Nothing sticks out at 6-05pm but RANCH HAND is another Balding runner being backed today at 6-35pm…12/1 > 11/2….I’ll go 20/80.
The only runner being supported at 7-05pm is GENERAL ZOFF….9/2 > 11/4….as much to do with MOUSEBIRD coming out but having said that, everything else is drifting so I’ll go 20/80 the Muir runner.
Don’t forget to tune into the Podcast at 4-00pm today!
Best of luck!