A “Stats” look at the US Open 2020

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Thought I’d take a look at this golf tournament for you, and try to apply my way of working with horse racing, which is how I make my living from that sport. Everything happens for a reason, certain criteria is almost always met and we can at least, again as with horse racing, draw up a “dutch”

This year they play at The Winged Foot Golf Club in Mamaroneck, New York. It will be the eighth major played at the club, and the first since Geoff Ogilvy landed the US Open there in 2006.

By all accounts (and I’m no expert on golf courses!), this could well be the toughest golf course on the planet….Tiger Woods certainly thinks so….”I think Winged Foot is right up there next to Oakmont and Carnoustie as far as just sheer difficulty without even doing anything to the course”

He added, “The winning scores here have never traditionally been very low, and I don’t see that changing this week”

He should know…he missed the cut here back in 2006!

What comes next might not amount to a hill of beans but, I’ll give it a shot.

Eight of the last 10 winners were to be found in the top 25 golfers in the world, at the time they kicked off:

THE WORLDS TOP 25 GOLFERS

  • DUSTIN JOHNSON
  • JON RAHM
  • JUSTING THOMAS
  • RORY MCILROY
  • COLLIN MORIKAWA
  • WEBB SIMPSON
  • XANDER SCHAFFELE
  • BROOKS KOEPKA
  • BRYSON DE CHAMBEAU
  • PARTICK REED
  • PATRICK CANTLAY
  • ADAM SCOTT
  • DANIEL BERGER
  • TYRRELL HATTON
  • TOMMY FLEETWOOD
  • TONY FINAU
  • MATTHEW FITZPARTICK
  • HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
  • PAUL CASEY
  • JUSTIN ROSE
  • TIGER WOODS
  • MARC LEISHMAN
  • ABRAHAM ANCER
  • SUNGJAE IM
  • LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN

So, that’s our starting point….if the stats speak true, one of those guys wins it.

All 10 of the last 10 winners, were aged 35 or under:

  • JON RAHM
  • JUSTIN THOMAS
  • RORY MCILROY
  • COLLIN MORKAWA
  • WEBB SIMPSON
  • XANDER SCHAUFFELE
  • BROOKS KOEPKA
  • BRYSON DE CHAMBEAU
  • PARTICK REED
  • PARTICK CANTLAY
  • DANIEL BERGER
  • TYRELL HATTON
  • TOMMY FLEETWOOD
  • TONY FINAU
  • MATTHEW FITZPATRICK
  • HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
  • ABRAHAM ANCER
  • SUNGJAE IM
  • LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN

By virtue of age, we are now down to 19 “runners”.

I’m a great one for the market helping us locate our winners and with eight of the last 10 winners starting at 20/1 or bigger, we’ll rule out those trading shorter:

  • WEBB SIMPSON
  • BRYSON DE CHAMBEAU
  • PATRICK REED
  • PATRICK CANTLAY
  • DANIEL BERGER
  • TYRELL HATTON
  • TOMMY FLEETWOOD
  • TONY FINAU
  • MATTHEW FITZPATRICK
  • HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
  • ABRAHAM ANCER
  • SUNGJAI IM
  • LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN

The market gives us a shortlist now of 13.

If you have played the week before this tournament, the stats suggest you left this one there. Seven of the last 10 winners had taken a week off before this one and we lose Tommy Fleetwood at this point, as we do Abraham Ancer, Sungjai Im. They have yet to make the top 25 in a US Open and with all of the last 10 winners having a top 25 placing on their CV’s, I’d suggest that’s important

  • WEBB SIMPSON – T8TH
  • BRYSON DE CHAMBEAU – WON
  • PATRICK REED – T13TH
  • PATRICK CANTLAY – T43RD
  • DANIEL BERGER – T34TH
  • TYRELL HATTON – MC
  • TONY FINAU – T8TH
  • MATTHEW FITZPATRICK – MC
  • HIDEKI MATSUYAMA – T17TH
  • LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN – 3RD

Now down to 10 and next I’m looking for players who, in recent tournaments, had finished in the top eight “finishers”. I’m looking specifically at the last three tournaments they played and so, from my list of 10 I’ll take:

  • WEBB SIMPSON
  • PATRICK REED
  • DANIEL BERGER
  • TYRRELL HATTON
  • TONY FINAU
  • MATHEW FITZPATRICK
  • HIDEKI MATSUYAMA

Down to seven.

The last five winners have been American and so I’ll run with that stat and select from that seven, those born in the good old US of A.

  • WEBB SIMPSON
  • PATRICK REED
  • DANIEL BERGER
  • TONY FINAU

Currently 25/1, 35/1, 30/1 and 30/1 respectively, I’ll dutch that quartet and also have a few quid e.w. on WEBB SIMPSON.

He won the 2012 US Open, and has done well in the last two “running’s”, finishing 10th and 16th so I don’t see him choking on it, if he’s in contention on the final day.

That’ll do for me and best of luck if you are having a punt on this tournament.

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