Ayr, Newbury and Catterick – 24 races assessed

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Tim Easterby has been in rocking good form this season and his five-timer yesterday, several of which were given a positive mention in my article yesterday, indicates it’s not about to turn funny on him any time soon. This was my personal favourite from the writing produced yesterday:

Tim Easterby – in rare form!

“A mover and a half at 4-20pm! GARDEN OASIS….9/1 > 9/2….cheekpieces on for the first time today….The last time they applied first time headgear (blinkers), it won”

I spotted one of his having been punted overnight (more of that below), but doubtless punters will be looking to play his runners in any race he has one entered for, we’ll need to be on the lookout for those that are real, and those that are bogus….they cannot all win.

I’m going to start today by looking at the card at Catterick and with the favourite having been taken out, I’m seeing plenty of price adjustment taking place in the opener….everything is shortening and so, I’ll leave that to the needy and greedy.

The second favourite has been pulled from the 1-45pm event and so, again, all I’m seeing is price adjustment, as opposed to “movers”. I should point out that one I advised to my subscribed membership over at Post Racing yesterday that was taken out, HERMAN HESSE (Ayr 5-35pm), runs in this and the market again suggests either he, or FIVEANDTWENTY, wins this. Not a betting race for me though.

The 2-20pm has the two exposed juveniles being supported, SASPARILLA 4/6 > 8/15, and BRAZEN BELLE 6/1 > 9/2. The Fahey newcomer, CANTERBURY TALES, is weak, 4/1 > 11/2 and the overall feeling is, this is a weak juvenile race, best left well alone.

A seven runner Nursery next (2-55pm), and nothing at all is being supported. Everything, even the Tim Easterby trained UNDER FOX – 10/1 > 12/1 – is drifting. Sorry….another race I’d prefer to just watch.

The paper favourite, LEAFHOPPER, is doing a “Kon Tiki” right now….8/11 > 10/11….as they nibble away at EGRECIO….3/1 > 5/2….it’s 40/1 bar three in this so safe to assume one of that trio (to include MODEL GUEST), will be winning this race. A round of applause has to go to the muppet at the Racing Post who advises readers that EGRECIO has an each-way chance. I’ll not bother getting the betting bank opened for this one.

I had been hoping to advise that ASHORTBACKANDSIDES had been cut but they have pulled it completely. It’s a Class 6, the layers are failing completely to lure punters in and nothing at all is being supported. The four at the top of the handicap are also the quartet heading the tissue and I’m sorry but, again, it’s just not a race I’d be remotely interested in playing, other than (maybe), a 20/80 the one advsied to Post Racing subscribed members this morning, as an OMM (now a little easier to back but still likely to place, at the very least).

Division 2 of the Class 6 and the pair I advised as OMM’s this morning are also now easier to back. I’m also now seeing a move of sorts, for POET’S MAGIC….12/1 > 8/1….this one wears first time cheekpieces and by crikey they’ll need to work….this thing is a maiden after 15 attempts and Ray Dawson, as good a 5lb claimer as I’ve seen in a long time, will have to draw the “magic” out of it to land the punt.

My only race that was put through the Ratings here today is the 5-15pm. Pleased to see my top rated, KITTEN’S DREAM, being supported….8/1 > 11/2….and it has been sustained support, since my Newsletter went out.

I’m happy with my figures and will play to my usual methodology.

AYR

1-40pm – Post Racing subscribed members will have hopefully got on at 4/1. This morning I advised CRYSTAL GUARD was an OMM….6/1 > 4/1….now the best you can get is 15/8. Everything else is on the drift and I’m now more than hopeful that this is “right”.

WOBWOBWOB was the horse popped into the OMM’s section this morning….11/2 >2/1….now best priced 2/1. The Tim Easterby runner, SHOWALONG, is 9/2 > 10/3 now and I guess a dutch makes some kind of sense. The favourite is by no means weak though.

This meeting sees the markets bouncing, as you would expect and in the 2-45pm event, the Post Racing subscribed members received news this morning that BICKERSTAFFE was 4/1 > 11/4….now the best you can get is 7/4. The rest are drifting and he looks “proper”.

Two for money since the market opened properly at 10-00am. MAGICAL JOURNEY is 10/1 >15/2 but it’s the Michael Dods runner, QUEENS GIFT, that is having a right old battering on the tissue….16/1 > 15/2. This one is clearly expected to be running better today, than it has done previously this season. I’ll dutch that pair with LAST EMPIRE, who does look to be the right favourite.

The Ayr Bronze Cup next and we have a runner here from my list of horses to follow. I cannot believe it has not won yet, this season but as I mentioned to a member recently, when it again got beaten, “he’s saving it for Ayr”. It’s form figures in September read 2, 1….it’s well drawn in middle (if I am reading this race correctly), and the market has found it….currently trading 13/2 favourite.

However, unsurprisingly, two Tim Easterby runners are being punted….FLYING PURSUIT (advised to my subscribed members yesterday 16/1 > 9/1….now 8/1), and MUSIC SOCIETY is now 10/1 > 7/1….this is actually a race I’m more interested in with an eye on tomorrow. I want to see if we get a pronounced draw bias I can work with.

I’ve had a 20/80 CALL ME GINGER because if I’m right and this meeting has been the plan all season, I’d hate to miss it if it won.

A six runner long distance waste of my time next (4-25pm), and they go 3/1 each of three. You could not get me parting with money here, if you gave me that money to bet with.

Division 1 of a Class 5 next and I’m now seeing them getting stuck into the favourite, GEORGE RIDSDALE….7/2 > 2/1. The two I provided my Post Racing subscribed members with earlier sees one getting stronger, one taking a right old hike. BLONDE WARRIOR was 14/1 > 8/1….now 7/1….the other one was 40/1 > 12/1….weak and back out to 20/1.

I’ll dutch GEORGE RIDSDALE / BLONDE WARRIOR.

CASSY O turns out again in the 5-25pm, and having opened 5/4, you can now have 15/8….won a seven furlong race very easily here yesterday but now upped to a mile and weak.

The OMM I advised subscribed members of this morning was RALPHY BOY TWO….11/1 > 6/1….now 7/1 with nothing else at all being punted.

I’ll just have me a 20/80 the OMM.

NEWBURY

My favourite racecourse.

HAAJOOS is all the rage in the first at 1-20pm….11/8 > 5/6….you can now have 7/2 bar and this looks a winner waiting to happen.

1-55 – Post Racing subscribers were told this morning that WHENTHEDEALISDONE has been supported overnight – 9/1 > 9/2….best price now is 5/2. Looks very much as if the deal is well and truly done!

In the 2-30pm, the money is still pouring on the OMM that my members were advised of before 7-00am this morning….DASH OF SPICE was 12/1 > 7/1 in that Newsletter but now just 4/1 and the new favourite for the race.

Nothing to report with regards the 3-05pm race and in the five runner race at 3-40pm, it’s YABIR they fancy most….10/3 > 9/4….everything else drifting.

A good race at 4-15pm and since those markets started ticking over at 10-00am, it’s GLORIOUS JOURNEY, 8/1 > 9/2, that the players have come for for win purposes and I’m also seeing place money for JASH, 20/1 > 12/1. The rest of the field is currently weak on the tissue so I’ll dutch that pair.

A three runner race at 4-45pm and what looked a strong favourite in LUCID DREAMER, is now a weak one…..4/6 > 10/11….TEODOLINA is 13/8 > 6/5…all academic really as I’d need flogging if I punted a three runner race.

My last rated raced of the day at 5-20pm and it’s simply far too top heavy with 3-y-o’s for me to take my figures seriously, seven of the 13 going to post, coming from that age group.

The market appears to think a 4-y-o will win it though, INCLYNE 9/2 > 3/1 being chased currently, up the tissue table, by MAORI KNIGHT – 8/1 > 11/2 – a 3-y-o.

I’ve decided I’ll abstain here because as I type, I cannot make head nor tale of it.

Best of luck today!

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