Today was very much a mixed bag for me. A profitable one, but also with three non-runners it made things frustrating. For those who are following the YouTube channel, we made profit. I tipped up a winner at 6-1, a winner at 3-1 and an each-way 12-1 place. I hope those of you that follow my YouTube made some cash, if you have not already subscribed, it only takes a second.
On to tomorrow and another nice looking card, and I have some horses that are almost sure to bring about some winners.
My Nap of the day is Smithscorner in the 3.40, at a mouth-watering price of 2-1.
It has been nothing short of a revelation this season, racking up a huge weight in the chasing scene but today it reverts back to hurdles.
It is running off a mark of 104 tomorrow. Previously it was running in chases off a mark of 133. What this means it is running off a mark 29lbs lower than he would in chases.
This statistic alone should be enough to insure Smithscorner wins “at a walk” tomorrow. Honestly I cannot see any horse to match his form in the book. Expect to see Jack Kennedy win this in comfortable fashion and if he does, we will have broken even with two chances of making a profit.
My next best of the day is the following race, the 4.15 with Scheau Time at 13-2.
Obviously, considering it is at an each-way price, I would always suggest to back each-way. But this is certainly the best value horse in the race here.
It is beginning to come into his own at the chasing game lately, finishing a very gallant fourth at 22-1 in Galway. Here is where it gets interesting.
The now joint-favourite, Pakens Rock, was four lengths behind that day. When you price them up, the fourth place horse is currently trading at 13-2 while the horse in fifth is trading 2-1.
For me it does not make sense. I think people are hyping up this Pakens Rock a little too much here. It has got a lot to find and is no way deserving of favouritism.
The McManus horse is from a yard with excellent chasers, but his hurdles form hardly holds up. It is risky to even consider throwing money for favourites here.
In steps Scheau Time, improvement is likely and with form to boast about it is a very good bet at 13-2. It should have no problem hitting the frame, but I reckon it will go one better.
Finally my each-way bet of the day lies in the 4.45 with Something Sweet, currently trading 5-1.
Like Scheau Time, Something Sweet is beginning to get into the swing of things with these chasing fences. She has been running some blinders lately.
I fell in love with her style in my local track, Thurles, last year. She is so honest and giving, just grabbing the bit and taking the jockey for a leisurely ride.
Something Sweet is generally a hold-up horse, positioned in or around midfield just at the rear of it. While she always likes to make her move with half a mile or so to go.
You will hopefully see the black and white silks start to join the leaders at the final bend, if she can do this again we will all know our faith. Something Sweet can be just that for us tomorrow.
That is all for me here folks, but if you want to follow me on my race by race analysis, there is a video on my YouTube channel for you to enjoy. I will leave a link below, if you could be so kind to subscribe it really helps me out.