Recouping our losses on Kerry National day.

4

Well folks, I think it was safe to say the sooner we write Monday off the better! After the poor run on the tipping game, I was both very lucky and unlucky. I was on the back of a horse that had no intention to jump. I thought I was on the right leg coming in, the horse stopped dead in its tracks and sent me flying into the side of the jump.

Lucky enough I came away with no major injuries, but it could well have ended a whole lot worse. I re-mounted and jumped the course again with a clear round. It is safe to say that jockeys deserve the height of respect to do what they do on a daily basis.

Onto tomorrow anyway, and with it being Kerry National day it is only right we try to recoup our losses from Monday.

My nap of the day lies in the 2.45 with Malone Road at 1-2.

I know what you are thinking, why Nap a 1-2? The simple fact is this. The horse is undefeated and more than likely will continue to be after tomorrow. I was highly expecting to see this horse in the starting prices trading odds of 1-4 or 1-5. 1-2 is a brilliant price for a horse that does not know how to lose.

Being honest, the horse looks too classy for this opposition, the ground will be coming in its favour after the rainfall today and tomorrow. It got a racecourse canter last time out around Kilbeggan and even if it needs to push tomorrow, it will run every horse ragged.

The 1-2 may seem safe, and possibly it is to get my confidence back, but it is one of the most confident bets that you could put your money on. I would almost guarantee you would be happy to get a price like 1-2 come race time tomorrow.

My next best of the day comes in at a slightly better price for punters, Western Victory at 5-4.

Again, I am struggling to see how this horse is such a “big” price. It has beaten most of the field before, is generally a sound jumper and can take this with open arms tomorrow.

Personally I was expecting it to be even money at the absolute highest. The only horse it has yet to beat considerably is Popong. I have seen this horse run before and I would be of the expectation that it needs to come on considerably to win here.

That is not out of the question, but Western Victory is a sound jumper and has chewed up and spit out the rest of the field in races prior. I would expect to see it do the very same tomorrow evening.

Finally my each-way bet lies in the National itself and Ravenhill at 7-1 is decent price.

Firstly, the horse clearly goes well fresh. All you have to do is look at its run in Cheltenham this year. Granted, it was a pretty weak race but it was the most impressive winner of the festival, if I am not mistaken.

It is accompanied by Rob James, a talented 7lb claimer who knows exactly how to win on the back of a horse. Its record for chases is three wins from seven runs, and the trainer is in flying form.

What more can I say? Rob James success rate for the past two weeks is 50% excluding any point-to-point wins. The horses overall form chasing returns just shy of 50%. While Gordon is 24% for his runners in the last two weeks. The numbers are there for Ravenhill to do the business tomorrow.

That is all for me folks. Like always if you want to see what I think of the overall card for tomorrow you can do so by checking out my YouTube channel linked below.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCMacq3pemmv1EVCZdVyOwqA

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4 COMMENTS

    • Yeah I can see your argument. But do you not think she has the tendency to completely blow up in her races? She was unreal in last years Munster. But since then she has been poor and probably past her best. I cant see it if I’m honest, but best of luck to you