This is my time of year, I love it when it’s racing in the cold and wet. There is no finer sight in racing, than a horse leaping over a “big black one”, as Arthur Stephenson used to describe a fence. It’s exhilarating watching it so how it must feel to be aboard one, I can only imagine. At 63 years of age, 6ft 1in and weighing in at 17 stone, I’m never going to find out so imagination it will be.
Today we have Warwick and Ffos Las and whilst I’ll not produce figures for the Welsh track, I’ll still examine the markets, watch the Exchanges, in search of clues.
Let’s start with Warwick.
The markets were quite simply dead overnight but now things are happening and in the opener it POGO I AM – 7/2 > 2/1 – the punters have latched on to. The morning tissue favourite, GALICE MACALO, has drifted from 11/8 > 9/4, with the Skelton runner, MARADA, 7/2 > 11/2.
An outsider for place money is SOME MIGHT SAY. 14/1 > 15/2, and he does at least arrive with fitness onside, having raced only 19 days ago.
12-40 – It’s all about the King runner, ES PERFECTO – 4/1 > 2/1, the rest are drifting. Someone once asked me for advice regarding Warwick, as they were going racing and I simply said, “look for anything Alan King sends there”. He had three winners that day.
1-10 – Just four going to post and all I can tell you is, they cannot give GETAWAY TRUMP away….E > 6/4….it’s the two outsiders attracting support, GOLDEN TAIPAN 4/1 > 3/1 and the Bryony Frost ridden TRINCOMALEE 15/1 > 5/1.
Should be educational for those taking part, and those of us just watching.
1-45 – What a cracking good Class 3 Handicap this is. The market isn’t saying much….it’s to early in the season, really, but there was a slight move towards my third highest rated horse in this CALUM GILHOOLEY – 9/2 > 10/3….now back out to 4/1. It is 15/2 bar that one, the market says my top rated has no chance, UMNDENI 8/1 > 14/1….and that’s why we just treat these races as “sighters” for Ratings purposes….I’ll trust the markets though!
2-20 – The Michael Scudamore flat runners have been performing well recently and here he runs COURT MASTER, off for 250 days, first run back following a wind-op, and the market like him – 7/2 > 2/1 but they also like BOOTLEGGER, 4/1 > 11/4….the rest you can have, the players want nothing to do with them. I’d dutch the movers if this were not early October.
2-55 – I have a top rated horse absolutely miles clear on my figures, the punters are getting stuck in and it looks likely PINK SHEETS will win this if my figures and the tissue have it correct. Opened 4/1, now 5/2, the rest drifting.
3-30 – CAPTAIN MORGS was the only OMM here advised to Post Racing subscribed members this morning, 6/4 > 10/11….now though, you can have 5/4 as the Alan King trainer METHUSALAR is getting hammered in the betting, 6/1 > 7/2….as you know from above, I’m a fan of King runners here.
Those strange off times are now appearing again.
2-08 – BUCK BRAVO is all the rage this morning, 4/1 > 5/2 and I cannot see a bean for anything else. Ran and won just three days ago and it would appear they are striking whilst their iron is hot, and those others are just now being put into the flames.
2-43 – Decent looking Novice Chase next but as I’d expect, the markets are not showing off a solitary runner that I’d call “preferred”. A few are fluctuating but I’d never use the word “mover” to describe any of them. One for the notebook.
3-18 – MILKWOOD over BALLINSKER….the former 2/1 > 11/8, the latter 5/4 > 15/8….although I’m now seeing money for STIMULATING SONG….4/1 > 11/4. All three have been missing from action as long as Lucan has been on the run and I’ll just watch.
3-53 – Two of the front three on the morning tissue have been pulled out and it’s merely tissue changes I’m seeing right now. If I had to point to one, it would be WHO SHOT JR….6/1 > 3/1 is a little more than fluctuating.
4-30 – Three pulled out of this one but DANCING IN THE SKY is a very strong favourite, 11/4 > 7/4, whilst JACK THUNDER has halved in price 12/1 > 13/2 and VOLCANO is 33/1 > 14/1….I’ll just watch.
5-00 – CAPTAINS RUN, who pulled up 58 days ago, has a first time tongue tie fitted, Sam Twiston-Davies up and is 33/1 > 12/1. That was his second successive P on his form line and it makes you wonder what that piece of stocking over the toungue is going to do….or is expected to do.
The favourite, JOLY MAKER, isn’t weak @ 2/1, but again, I’m not parting with cash and will just watch what goes off.
5-30 – The tissue favourite has been withdrawn but three horses are being smashed up:
- KHANISARI – 7/2 > 6/4
- NOCTE VOLATUS – 10/1 > 4/1
- THIRSTY FARMER – 25/1 > 14/1
COGITAL would have been the new favourite….you’d have thought….nope, 7/4 > 3/1 and it appears it’ll be running in divers boots.
Best of luck today!