The rain put a temporary hold on things towards the end of last week and the first few days of this but today I’m happy to get busy again and introduce some thoughts on today’s racing.
The markets for both NH meetings had been very quiet with just one OMM at each meeting, four at the flat meeting taking place at Nottingham.
Things are moving now though and we start with the first at this meeting:
1-15 – SMALL PRESENT opened 11/4 here but is now just 15/8. STORMIN NORMAN also saw an early move but having gone 13/2 > 9/2, is now out to 11/2 again in the light of this move for the Sue Smith runner.
SMALL PRESENT does look “the one”.
1-45 – Just four going to post and even if we had anything to work with by way of a “mover”, novice steeplechasers are best left alone until we’ve seen they can actually do it on a racecourse.
2-19 – I have rated this race and I’m looking forward to seeing how my numbers pan out. It is very competitive….they go 9/2 the field and I’m seeing two attracting a little support….not a lot but some.
- LEGALIZED – 9/1 > 13/2
- PARIS PROTOCOL – 6/1 > 9/2
One of that pair is in my top three rated and whilst my top rated is one of three drifters, I’d be happy with my dutch, if I were betting.
2-54 – Six head to post here and the market is currently all over the place. The favourite, MY RENNAISANCE, is weak – 11/10 > 2/1, MISTERCOBAR, my bottom rated and the only runner in here with no winning form on the going as currently described, 5/1 > 7/2, with TONTO’S SPIRIT 18/1 > 10/1.
I could only run with my figures again here, if I were getting involved.
3-29 – A mares novice next and it would appear the players make this between a pair:
- WILD POLLY – E > 11/10
- ESCORT’NAMIX – 7/2 > 5/2
It is 9/1 bar that pair with the market very much indicating the race fit ESCORT’NAMIX preferred. The favourite has been off for 222 days but, for all of that, isn’t weak as such.
4-00 – The third of four Rated races here and again, ultra competitive on paper….even if my figures do have one miles clear. That is definitely priced to play 20/80.
Nothing at all is being punted here, quite the opposite, horses drifting to try and tempt punters in and so, again, I’d have to be looking to my figures for profit.
4-35 – The last race on the card and my final Rated race here, too. I’m loving my figures, especially my top Rated horse, who has already been advised as an OMM to my subscribed membership over at Post Racing.
The market again suggests only one of two can win this as it’s 15/8 > 6/5 THE NAVIGATOR, with EYEOFTHESCORPION 2/1 (solid), and then 8/1 bar.
2-10 -If the market is right, neither of the front two on the tissue wins this, both on the drift. Nothing is being backed at all and it’s simply a race to swerve.
2-45 – I have two races rated here and this is the first of them. My top rated horse currently heads the tissue and was 10/3 > 5/2, now 11/4 but by no means weak. Two horses for money:
- YEAVERING BELLE – 8/1 > 6/1
- STORM GODDESS – 12/1 > 15/2
I have to be happy with my figures as one of that pairing is my second highest rated so, the market likes two I’d be dutching.
3-20 – The second and last of my rated races here this afternoon. TEMPLEPARK is weak – 3/1 > 5/1 – but still holding onto favouritism….just….from another very weak in COUP DE PINCEAU – 10/3 > 11/2….just this very second gone 6/1….that horse is my top rated but whilst I like my numbers here, the market says “no” about this one, but very much “yes” regarding my second highest rated, RELENTLESS DREAMER 10/1 > 13/2.
Several others are also being “tickled”:
- TINTERN THEATRE – 10/1 > 13/2
- BIGMARTRE – 10/1 > 15/2
- SUMKINDOFKING – 16/1 > 11/1
- CRESSWELL LEGEND – 16/1 > 12/1
It’s simply an extremely competitive early season NH race and a Class 3, which should make for a brilliant watch.
Let’s see how good my numbers are.
3-55 – The third favourite has been pulled out and so all I’m seeing here is market adjustments….although, DOES HE KNOW is extremely strong at the head of the tissue….now odds on to succeed.
4-30 – MORNING VICAR was advised to my Post Racing subscribed members this morning, as an OMM….5/1 > 7/2….best priced now 11/4 and very strong. I’d be happy running with the Henderson horse.
5-05 – A Conditional jockey’s race next and two are attracting support:
- ROAR – 13/2 > 4/1
- KARAKORAM – 9/1 > 6/1
The move has seen ROAR now trade favourite and it appears they are after their money back, this horse pulled up 49 days ago, when favourite to succeed.
Still priced to go 20/80, for sure.
5-35 – They finish with a Bumper and the market usually guides us in the right direction….just not yet! If you feel you must have a bet here, watch for late market moves, especially for ORDERED LIVES. They are sniffing around this one, just not getting stuck in just yet.
12-00 – Never a fan of end of season races being run the flat, on soft ground and would not be betting on them unless, as with yesterday, I spot a race I feel offers up a genuine betting opportunity.
Here two of the juveniles are being supported:
- FIGHTER PILOT – 15/8 > 6/4
- LOUBY LOU – 20/1 > 12/1
I’d suggest the latter is place money and that the tissue favourite is “expected” as all around that one drifts!
12-30 – It would appear IRISH LEGEND is a cat now out of the bag here….3/1 > 6/4 and not a sausage for anything else. ROYAL TOUCH would appear to be booked for second.
Post Racing subscribed members knew earlier this morning this one was “hot” as they had it in their Newsletters 5/1 > 3/1….so to see it shrink to 6/4 now tells us all we need to know.
1-00 – Likewise here, in my morning Newsletter I advised Post Racing subscribed members that ESPRESSO FREDDO was 8/1 > 5/1….now 4/1 but I’m also now seeing money for FLYING DRAGON – 12/1 > 13/2.
1-30 – A Class 6 and they go 6/1 the field. Only three points between favourite and sixth favourite and I’d not even consider punting this, even if the market had one up in lights…which it doesn’t.
2-00 – Class 3 here….six runners and, it’s the outsider attracting money EAST END GIRL, 12/1 > 8/1….14 furlongs in the mud….no thank you.
2-35 – ACT OF WISDOM should win this now that the morning second favourite has been pulled out.
3-10 – The first time blinkered JACKAMUNDO is 10/1 > 6/1 with SNOW OCEAN 10/3 > 11/4….a few others are also being sniffed around COCKALORUM 11/1 > 8/1, MAHANAKHON POWER 22/1 > 16/1, other coming in, drifting, coming in again….a race that, quite simply, I’d not touch with a barge pole.
4-15 – I pointed one out in my morning Newsletter, HOOROO 16/1 > 10/1….but again it’s simply a market in a complete state of flux….STORMINGIN – 20/1 > 11/1. APPROXIMATE 20/1 > 12/1….just a couple of “for instances”.
I’d fancy a bet in a Class 6 Apprentice Handicap as much as I did my lumbar puncture in 2013….no….thank…you!
Best of luck!