Two meetings to play around with this afternoon and we have plenty of big priced horses seemingly expected to outrun their opening shows as they have been supported both overnight and since 7-00am, when my Newsletter went out to my Post Racing subscribed membership.
The start of this week has seen poor racing but this is better today. I have three Rated races for Fontwell and it will be interesting to see if they perform as well as those at Exeter did yesterday:
- (OMM), * – OSCARS MOONSHINE….+9 – WON 4/6
- UMNDENI….-14 – 2ND 13/2
- * – ADIMELO….-16 – 3RD 28/1
- W2 – TALKTOMENOW….-20
- MAX FORTE….-40
Tricast paid just over £51 and the second of my rated races there also produced a result:
- SIZING AT MIDNIGHT….+8 – 2ND 2/1
- KITTY’S LIGHT….-6 – WON 9/2
- WINTER GETAWAY….-24
- (OMM) – COMMODORE BARRY….-32
- FLYING VERSE….-35
- T – PORTWAY FLYER….-37
Very pleasing considering we are just past half way through October.
I’ll start with Fontwell
1-25 – NORLEY makes seasonal debut and races second time following a wind-op and he’s attracting the money….9/2 > 11/4. The morning favourite LORD ACCORD is weak, 7/4 > 11/4 and the Sherwood horse is the only one for money.
Oliver Sherwood, trainer of NORLEY, has had three winners from his last 10 runners and those three winners have started 7/2 or shorter.
A 20/80 NORLEY would be the suggested play.
2-00 – Division II of the Maiden Novice and the long odds on shot, COQUELICOT is weak, 8/15 > 4/6 and money comes for Neil Mulholland’s ROOKIE TRAINER, 6/1 > 9/2.
You would never in a million years punt odds on in such races anyway and this punt also makes seasonal debut running for the second time following a wind-op.
It’d be a 20/80 ROOKIE TRAINER if were thinking about punting here.
2-35 – The first of my three rated races here and it’s my third highest rated horse BAD BOY DU POULDU trading favourite, and strong, too….9/4 > 7/4.
An outsider being played to e.w. money is ROYAL PLAZA, running first time following a wind-op….16/1 > 15/2. A previous course and distance winner, he is a winner of just four of his previous 40 races and in three runs since July, he has been beaten 33 lengths, 50 lengths and 37 lengths, so that operation is going to have to produce a Lazarus type miracle to get him home in front.
I’d just dutch my figures.
3-10 – The second of my rated races and lovely to see the support for my second highest rated horse, KISSESFORKATIE, 11/2 > 7/2 favourite.
I’m also seeing money for MR PUMBLECHOOK 9/1 > 11/2, racing first time following a wind-op for Alan King and, yet another Chris Gordon runner having money thrown at it, HAREFIELD 10/1 > 7/1….that one is my top rated horse so, if I’m right, and the market is right….a profit is just around the corner….if only it worked like that!
We shall see.
3-45 – Yet another horse racing first time following a wind-op having plenty of support in the market. ECLAIR DE GUYE rates fourth best on my figures and is 15/2 > 9/2 and this is another CD winner, too.
I’d be looking at a top four dutch now using my top three with that market mover, if a profit could be attained, and if I were betting right now.
An outsider being supported is CHURCHTOWN GLEN 33/1 > 16/1 but this was a maiden over fences in Ireland and has been missing for a year….happy with my decision making and if that scuppers my thoughts, so be it.
4-23 – A Class 5 but we have one being punted properly. ONE FOR DUNSTAN 13/2 > 4/1 favourite and very strong, too….they are taking…have taken…all prices in between.
THE PREMIER CELTIC was proving interesting, 10/1 > 7/1, now 15/2 and the Alan King runner HACKSHAW RIDGE 12/1 > 9/1 is attracting e.w. players.
4-55 – Another Class 5, this time over fences. INSPIREUS opened 33/1 and has been attracting support all morning, now just 14/1 and this has seen the paper favourite SEASIDE GIRL weaken 6/4 > 9/4.
FURIUS DE CIERGUES is 13/2 > 5/1 and is totally unexposed over fences, having raced over then just twice. He was a good third in a higher Class on his final run last season and can race off 2lb lower in the lesser grade. I’d be thinking 20/80 that one.
5-30 – I had advised my Post Racing subscribed membership of an OMM here, FLYING NUN, 14/1 > 8/1 but I hate Bumpers.
1-15 – MARADA is long odds on to win the Mares Novice and it’s 18/1 bar three. One of those three is attracting support though, MICK MONA, running second time following a wind-op (that seems to be a theme today!), 5/1 > 7/2.
A no bet race.
1-50 – A Novice Chase and, yet another horse racing first time following a wind-op is getting all the money here 3/1 > 13/8…. AYE AYE CHARLIE….EL PRESENTE has drifted all barge like is the face of that support E > 6/4….quite possible the horse that has form figures reading UP, and has been missing for 221 days goes off favourite following that op.
I’d just watch.
2-25 – It’s getting silly now. Another horse that has seen a vet and had it’s wind done, is the one for money here, YOUNG BUCK 2/1 > 6/4, with the favourite ZIGGY ROSE 8/11 > 10/11….again not a race that would interest me for punting but I’m curious to see if all these wind-op have worked.
3-00 – ATLANTIC STORM is 8/1 > 11/2 and everything is weak around it and he drops back to his preferred trip of two miles, having raced over four furlongs further last time out. Two things I do not like about him are, he appears to like the backside of at least one other horse in front of him and going right handed he has raced seven times and placed just once.
Another no bet race here.
3-35 – Nothing particularly strong here but if the opening market was accurate, one of three wins it:
- LUCKY ONE
- FUGITIVES DRIFT
- RED NIKA
The last named was allowed to drift 7/2 > 4/1 a little support is now coming and 3/1 is the best you can get.
I’d go 20/80 RED NIKA.
4-15 – Only six going to post and two for a little money are:
- TB BROKE HER 13/2 > 4/1
- PRETTYLITTLETHING – 12/1 > 15/2
The front two on the tissue are not what I’d call weak, more fluctuating as money comes for that pair.
Again, a race I’d simply watch.
4-45 – They finish with a pair of Bumpers and in this one it’s Mick Channon’s THOMAS KERSHAW attracting support, 13/2 > 4/1
5-20 – ….and here it’s Fergal O’Brien’s REBEL REBELLO…..6/1 > 7/2 and guess what, it’s another racing second time following a wind-op!
Hereford will never be a track I bet much and today it’s just that one I have “bolded” that would see a Robinson shekel down.
Best of luck!