The best racing of the week thus far and very much looking forward to how my figures perform today. I’m extremely confident we have the winner of a race at Carlisle and my Post Racing subscribed membership have been advised of the name of that horse. Here we’ll see how the markets have been working since my 7-00am Newsletter went out.
I’ll kick off with that good meeting up at Carlisle.
12-35 – GRANDADS COTTAGE is the only runner attracting player support 7/4 > 6/5 and very strong. Of the bigger priced horses ITSNOTYOUITSME originally drifted drifted from an original 10/1 > 14/1 but that was big enough to attract the e.w. players and this one now trades just 9/1.
1-08 – It’s another Olly Murphy/Aidan Coleman runner coming in for substantial support now JETAWAY JOEY, 7/2 > 9/4. Everything else is on the drift and it looks like the battalion of horses Murphy has sent up is expected to win the battles. He has popped no fewer than seven horses up to Carlisle this afternoon, a round trip of 456 miles and the money is down.
1-40 – The Murphy runner here is weak, NOTRE PARI 11/4 > 7/2. Nothing is particularly strong in the market to be fair and this is a tissue I’d like to continue to monitor. I have a feeling something is going to happen….it’s just a matter of when.
2-15 – Just four going to post and again, the Murphy trained runner here, NICKOLSON, is weak….backed from 7/4 > 5/4 he has now weakened back out to his original opening show. The reason for this is the strength behind RIBBLE VALLEY. He races first time following a wind op and the second they go evens about this horse, it is snaffled up. It does seem they expect the Richards horse to be able to give Murphy’s runner the 6lb and a beating.
2-50 – What a brilliant race this is. A 16 runner Class 3 Handicap will always get the thumbs up from me. This is also the first of my three Rated races here today.
We have a very strong favourite here, NO REGRETS 3/1 > 9/4 and it’s then 7/1 bar. Whatever they have done with this favourite during the summer has clearly worked and they are making hay before the winter ground arrives. It is no coincidence he has started all three races this season as the favourite to win them. He jumps two grades today but the manner of his wins suggests he’s up to it.
Still very lightly raced, just seven runs over obstacles, he has won his last two by 16 lengths and 36 lengths. It looks like I can ignore my figures (this horses sits 5th best on +/-0), and concentrate my thoughts on a proper looking “mover”….not that I’ll be betting here, just enjoying the spectacle.
3-25 – Down to five runners but this is the race in which I have taken a plunge and punted STATION MASTER. He is clear top rated on my numbers, he has been punted from 5/1 > 15/8 and all the stars look aligned for him.
His trainer only sends a horse to Carlisle when it is primed and ready, as his 80% wins to runners strike rate would testify.
I expect him to win….but then it wasn’t supposed to rain today and we have a shower right now!
4-00 – Another superbly competitive race and my final rated race here this afternoon.
The Skelton trained BANDSMAN is a solid favourite and sits second best on my figures.
The only money I’m seeing for anything is that for TRONGATE 10/1 > 7/1….but that feels very much like place punters going in.
I’m happy with my figures and would just be applying Stake Management rules here.
4-34 – It’s a Class 5 but very competitive for the grade. They go 6/1 the field but we do have a “mover”….SOYOUTHINKSOAGAIN….10/1 > 6/1 joint favourite.
I had advised my Post Racing subscribed membership that CAPAC was an OMM….11/1 > 7/1 and it would appear he is set to run a big race, too.
A two horse dutch that pair mentioned might well prove profitable.
1-25 – The market appears to be telling us it’s a three horse race:
- AJERO – 5/2 > 15/8
- WHITLOCK 11/8 > 2/1
- GREY SPIRIT 7/2 > 9/2
It is then 10/1 bar that trio.
The market is suggesting AJERO, wearing a tongue tie first time, is expected to make it third time lucky.
WHITLOCK was bought out of John Gosden’s yard for 200,000Gns two years ago and if he still retains that flat ability (he was rated 87 and running in Class 3 handicaps), then he must go close….but the market does appear to suggest that whatever has kept him off the track was to his detriment.
2-00 – A Class 5 Handicap Chase and the market has not been touched. Nobody wants to know and I’m with “nobody”….it’s a very poor race that something will win purely because something has to do so.
2-35 – WYNN HOUSE is the one for money, 6/4 > 5/6 with CHAMPAGNE LILLY 5/2 > 4/1 and friendless. They only want the Alan King horse here and I’m with “they”.
3-10 – We have a “steamer” here, TRICKY CUSTOMER 20/1 > 9/1 and only the favourite, GOA LIL, is strong against it, 5/2 > 2/1.
My first thought here was, “two horse dutch”….it was also my second thought and that would be my advice to anyone thinking about betting this race.
3-45 – The first of my three rated races from this track and in this event I advised my subscribed membership we have two OMM’s in here, both of which are interesting.
JOHN CONSTABLE is my second highest rated horse and was 8/1 > 13/2 overnight….now just 9/2 and extremely strong.
DON JUAN DU GOUET is my fourth highest rated here. The reason DON JUAN DU GOUET is of interest is the jockey booking….Tom Queally, he of FRANKEL fame, and who rode BALMACARA a couple of times for us in 2004, has his first ride over hurdles since he won over them in 2016….that was a flat jockeys only event
Makes that race 10 times more interesting than it otherwise would have been.
An outsider is attracting e.w. support, too….my bottom rated horse, FORT DE L’OCEAN is 20/1 > 12/1….just one win from his previous 15 runs is not encouraging but he is race hard having had six races already since July.
I’d be happy with my figures here.
4-20 – My second rated race here and it’s as tight as a drum. Just nine going to post and they go 7/2 the field and if the market is right, my figures are totally wrong!
One horse has been played e.w., ROBINSHILL, 11/1 > 15/2, and makes seasonal debut having been off for 314 days. A previous course winner his seasonal debut figures read: 9, 6, P, 7, 4….hardly inspiring me to suggest you follow that money.
A race I’d not bet, just watch and enjoy.
4-53 – I’ve rated this race by mistake….no wonder my figures for it are absolute pants.
Having said that, the horse “top rated”, TIMOSHENKO, is 14/1 > 8/1 so whilst those figures reflect just how poor this race is, I might just have stumbled on something….I wouldn’t bet on it though!
The one they have trading favourite is EVENSTEVENS 5/1 > 7/2 and if the players have sorted this out already, one of that pair wins.
5-25 – They conclude with an Amateur Jockey’s Handicap Chase and it’s that in form trainer and beautician Sheila Lewis responsible for a right mover here, STUPID CUPID 14/1 > 6/1.
It arrives with form figures reading 27PP-P….cheekpieces first time are going to need to work a miracle of loaves and fishes proportions.
After the first of those PU’s it was given 67 days off, after the second it was given 224 days off….this time it’s 22 days….and I spy with my little eye a clue. This critter has had just 17 runs and managed just one win….a year ago tomorrow.
Now I’d not normally bet a race like this….still wont….and I’d never watch one of these either….but I’ll watch this and if Sheila pulls this off, I’ll look to read the report taken by the Stewards relating to the improved performance.
Best of luck!