Why I’m not betting yet

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Usually I would not bet on football for at least the first 2 months of the season because working out the early games is impossible. I cannot make head nor tale of what is happening in the Premier League right now and if anyone tells me they can I will call them out on it.

I was reading about a company that has creating an algorithm that has predicted who will win the league this year and my first thought was, “dopes!”. They have Liverpool winning the league by 2 points from Man City but was that before Liverpool lost Van Dyke or after?

If you try to predict the result of a game right now you have no chance and so far we’ve seen results that have me scratching my head wondering when its all going to settle down. Nobody is playing consistently well, Leeds winning at Villa last night was a result nobody could have predicted until after the game and loads of people are doing that. The bets put up by the Racing Post were Villa to win and BTTS.

I am no fan of VAR and I read Ron’s comments on social media were he said he’s not enjoying his football now because you cannot enjoy a goal the second it is scored and I have to agree. The ball to hand rule is crazy and you just get the feeling its being done for a reason and that is to stop 0-0 draws.

Fans being missing is also another factor in some of the crazy results we are seeing. Sheff Utd’s manager reckons it’s costing his team points because they relied on home support to help them and it will be the same everywhere. I doubt very much Spurs would have won 6-1 at Old Trafford if the home support had been there.

You explain to me Villa winning 7-2 against Liverpool, or how the goals per game ratio of 3.58 has happened! The record across a season is 2.82 and that is set to be smashed this season. The last time we saw a GPG ratio in excess of 3 came in 1960 when it was 3.73 and all this matters when trying to predict the outcome of a game.

The last 5 Premier League seasons have produced GPG averages of 2.72, 2.82, 2.68, 2.80 and 2.70 so that record will most likely go this time around, because of VAR and ball to hand.

Give me a couple of weeks to see if it settles down but don’t expect miracles from me or the other two lads doing football betting this season because it isn’t normal. Those laying football bets must be laughing at the moment.

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