The NH season is now getting into full stride and I have looked at all 22 races today for the three meetings taking place at Ascot, Wetherby and Ayr. The last named meeting will be run on heavy ground, in a gale and I’m glad I do not start betting again properly until next weekend.
This meeting starts with a divided Conditional Jockeys Novices’ Handicap and in the 12-15 they are going for XCITATIONS 13/2 > 9/2.
If you are happy playing such races then a 20/80 looks likely to pay a profit
12-47 – The second leg and two horses for money:
- KNOWN – 9/2 > 10/3
- FIFTY BALL – 11/2 > 4/1
The rest of this field is on the drift and so again, if you are cosy playing such races, the dutch might well be the path to profit.
1-20 – FALCO BEACH isn’t weak at the head of the market but the OMM advised to Post Racing subscribed members this morning is rock steady at the price it was backed into. Post Racing members know this horse well because I posted it up as an Eyecatcher when it ran third in January last year, and it bolted up at 20/1 next time out.
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1-55 – IBLEO is strong at the head of this market and sits in my top three rated horses. The market and my Ratings tie up well and I’d expect my top three to produce a profit from the dutch.
2-32 – If you listened to the Podcast yesterday, you know I advised one right at the end, to pay for the weekend. It was then advised as an OMM in my morning Newsletter and now all it has to do, is win. If you would like to listen to the Podcast, please click here.
3-05 – Two advised as OMM’s in my morning Newsletter and they are still very well supported. I’m now seeing money for SCARAMANGA 11/1 > 7/1 and the one I put up in the Podcast as a 20/80 is still very steady.
Sean Trivass suggested his Podcast “something for the weekend” would run very well in this and that again, was an OMM in the morning Newsletter.
3-40 – The Henry Daly horse, WHATMORE has been all the rage for this since the markets opened but my figures say no….been wrong plenty times before and Post Racing members playing this race to a dutch would include that one for a Dutch 4….great race, looking forward to it.
4-17 – OFF THE PLANET has been backed off the boards to take the Bumper, 8/1 > 4/1. The rest they cannot give away at this moment and it looks like Hobbs has a live one. Definite 20/80.
12-25 – The market is suggesting FINANCIAL OUTCOME is expected to run well and as he’s in my top three rated, best course of action would be to simply apply Stake Management rules. My top rated has also seen a bit of market action since 10-00am, 11/1 > 15/2 and with cheekpieces applied first time, the yard must be half expecting a big run.
1-00 – Not a race I was keen on at first light but we see money for ONCHAN 33/1 > 16/1. The front pair on the tissue are not weak though and a three horse dutch ASHTOWN LAD / BRIEF AMBITION, with that well backed outsider, might yield a profit.
1-35 – A hugely competitive handicap and if I had to point to one stronger in the market than anything else, it would be HES NO TROUBLE, 11/1 > 17/2. He is also my top rated horses so a dutch four with the OMM looks a good way to go, especially as the favourite is also in my top three rated!
2-10 – Some of the outsiders are being played to place but it looks likely VERDANA BLUE will land the spoils. SA race to watch as opposed to be betting on.
2-45 – A race we discussed in detail yesterday and they cannot give LISNAGAR OSCAR away right now, 11/4 > 9/2….no real money for anything though, to be honest and again, a race I’ll just watch.
3-20 – If you listen to the Podcast you’ll know I gave a couple of good reasons why the Nicholls horse wont be winning. The one the market likes now is VINNDICATION and that’s one I did make a bit of a song and dance about.
I mentioned also that AYE RIGHT was 40/1 when the market opened and now best priced 14/1. He is race fit, which counts for plenty at this point.
3-55 – What an absolutely brilliant race to finish off with….19 runner Handicap Hurdle and I’m seeing one attracting more support than the others, although plenty are being nibbled.
CALUM GILHOOLEY is 12/1 > 15/2 since the markets woke up this morning. He’s fourth best on my numbers so right now, I’d just dutch my top four and enjoy the spectacle.
The ground will be bad, the weather lousy and punting here will most certainly carry a wealth warning!
12-32 – The morning favourite, FIVE BAR BRIAN….6/4 > 9/4….nobody wants it. CASTLE RUSHEN is now a solid 13/8 favourite with LET ME ENTERTAIN U 15/2 > 9/2….a two horse dutch the new favourite and the Scudamore horse, me thinks.
1-07 – Everything here is drifting….just work with my numbers.
1-42 – POUGNE BOBBI is 14/1 > 13/2 and only the favourite, CALTEX, is strong against it. My top rated horse is very weak and the three for a dutch would be:
- POUGNE BOBBI
The middle one misses a race at Wetherby to come here….wise move.
2-17 – Paul Nicholls has sent two horse up here which is about a 1000 mile round trip. A round of applause for those driving!
HIGHLAND HUNTER was a mover for him here but is now weak, 3/1 > 7/4 > 9/4….they have changed their minds. I’m not sure I’d want to back a horse that had been standing in a horse box for as long!
Two being supported now are:
- JUSTATENNER 12/1 > 7/1
- OFF THE HOOK 16/1 > 10/1
The last named races first time following a wind-op and wearing a first time tongue tie….it has no chance on my figures but, my figures cannot take into account the effect the op and the equipment might have.
I’ll just be watching.
2-52 – Massive gamble going on here, SAINT LEO 14/1 > 9/2. He is my bottom rated horse in this, and rightly so. Something must have happened in the 323 days he has been off the track, that we all know nothing about….but someone clearly does!
I’d now have no option but to look at a four horse dutch….if I were betting.
3-27 – The other horse Nicholls has sent up is also drifting like it’s arrived having been all over a travel bag on the way up. CALVA D’AUGE 5/2 > 4/1 as the money keeps piling on my top rated horse, advised as an OMM in my morning Newsletter….all looking good here, then!
4-02 – A five runner Bumper to conclude and the players are all of the same mind….not a penny piece for anything so you’d simply watch before turning over to take in the Liverpool match!
Best of luck!