It is now starting to crank up, and the quality of what we have at Newbury today suggests the season is just about to begin. I have looked at all 24 races being run today at Newbury, Market Rasen and Sedgefield, and we have plenty going on. The markets have been bouncing overnight and they have come alive again this morning.
12-20 – They start with a Conditional jockeys Handicap and two horses were advised to my Post Racing subscribed membership as have been supported overnight. They are still strong and a dutch of that pair looks likely to produce profit.
12-55 – Again my Post Racing subscribed membership had an OMM for this race and again I’d be dutching with the morning favourite, SOARING GLORY, who is by no means weak.
1-30 – A Beginners Chase and a very strong tissue favourite in THE BIG BREAKAWAY. All bar ONE FOR THE TEAM, 5/1 > 9/2 is weak against it but as with all races of this kind, I could never advise taking odds on in a novice event and whilst the Tizzard horse might well win pulling a caravan, I can afford to let him.
2-00 – You are again being invited to take long odds on a Novice, this time a Nicky Henderson trained hurdler, GRAN LUNA. I’m seeing money for the second favourite though, SATURN ‘N SILK 13/2 > 4/1.
All we know about the favourite is that it won a Bumper, and is “promising”….I’d much prefer a 20/80 that one being punted if I had to have a bet on a race like this but, thankfully, I don’t.
2-30 – My figures and the market are in relative tandem here. My top three occupy the 2nd, 3rd and 5th spots on the tissue, with plenty of money for my second highest rated horse. If you would like those figures, please click here to subscribe for a package.
I’m also seeing e.w. money for KATESON, who runs here second time after a wind-op. The 14/1 has gone and the best price now is 8/1. Go back far enough and you find this one running third to CHAMP in a Challow Hurdle so, if the horse is ready on seasonal debut, I could see it hitting the frame right enough. I fancy my figures have it right though.
3-05 – Great race. My top rated horse is attracting money and moving on the tissue as is my second highest rated. My figures and tissue are more or less speaking the same language here and I’m again expecting a profit from my numbers.
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3-40 – Division I of the Bumper and in my morning Newsletter I advised of two being supported. The first named of that pair has shortened further and that has led to a very slight lengthening of the second of that pair.
I’m of a mind they have this sorted out….straight win.
4-15 – The morning OMM is drifting now, because a right old punt is going on. SKYTASTIC is 20/1 > 15/2 but FINE CASTING is 9/1 > 6/1.
Not a race I’d ever be keen to bet because it does not have one anything like as strong as the first division of this event.
12-00 – Post Racing subscribed members knew all about one being smashed off the boards before 7-00am this morning and they are still wading in. The only other runner holding up against this punt is GIOVANNI CHANGE, 4/1 > 3/1 so a two horse dutch looks the way to a profit here.
12-30 – This is a race I’d rather watch then play. I’m seeing a favourite they’ll not let drift far BALLINGERS CORNER 7/4 > 2/1 > 9/4 > 15/8, despite money coming for two:
- SHIROCCSMYWORLD – 9/1 > 9/2
- PELLADY – 16/1 > 9/1
You could snaffle a 75% profit at current Betfair odds, dutching the three.
1-02 – A weak favourite, CASABLANCA MIX 4/5 > 5/6 > 10/11 > E….but it looks a race nobody wants to play for some reason. A bit of a nibble REALLY SUPER, 8/1 > 13/2, who won the Summer Plate but for me, a race to watch only.
1-37 – My Post Racing subscribed members knew earlier what was going on here, and that horse named as an OMM is still very strong. The favourite is now drifting because of the support for that one and I’d be more than happy with a 20/80 the OMM.
2-07 – Class 5 Handicap Chase but, as we saw yesterday, horses of this grade struggle to jump properly, even when backed to win! COURT JARADO would have won a minute yesterday but could barely get off the ground. It’s why I very rarely suggest we get involved.
PAKIE’S DREAM is the one expected to improve for first time headgear (visor), 6/1 > 4/1, as they let the morning favourite go 15/8 > 5/2.
A 20/80 the Candlish runner might bring home a little profit.
2-40 – The first of my three rated races from this track today and my top rated horse is the one for money this morning. We had seen a big priced one played overnight and entered into the OMM’s section of the Newsletter but that now drifts slightly.
This race is a prime example of how things can change with regards betting a race.
We now have a bottom rated favourite that I personally would replace the OMM with. JUST SO COOL saw support 6/1 > 3/1 and whilst the money for my top rated has seen is move back out to 4/1, everything else is now on the drift.
3-15 – My second rated race here and one of the two OMM’s is very strong….the one suggested was introduced into a four horse dutch. I might have got that bit right then!
I’m seeing massive drifters ROSES POSES 13/8 > 3/1, COSHESTON 8/1 > 12/1, THE RUTLAND REBEL 11/1 > 18/1, PARIS PROTOCOL 9/1 > 20/1, SPIRIT OF WATERLOO 12/1 > 25/1, DOUBLE COURT 14/1 > 33/1 and BLACK ABBEY 14/1 > 40/1
JUST MARVIN 8/1 > 5/1 along with those drifters suggests the three to work with here are the morning OMM, PROJECT MARS and JUST MARVIN.
A competitive race made more interesting by the market this morning.
3-50 – This is my final rated race here and the figures came out seriously low for everything….my top rated is -23!
I still think my figures are right and the market likes everything I produced this morning. Despite them being weak looking, I still expect them to produce a profit here, along with the morning OMM.
12-10 – You wouldn’t be looking to play here. The front two on the tissue are 5/6 & 11/8, then it’s 14/1 and bigger the rest. One of them wins it and it’s probably GET RICH DIE PLYIN….but I wouldn’t bet on it.
12-40 – My only rated race here and with the OMM strong and in my top three rated horses, I’m happy to go with what I have but there are a few being nibbled at and I’d keep staking low if you are playing.
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1-15 – A very competitive looking Conditional Jockeys handicap in which nothing is being punted so best advice….just watch.
1-45 – Another Class 5 Handicap Chase and the CD winner CASH AGAIN is a strong enough favourite with a little action surrounding CYBALKO 8/1 > 11/2
ICONIC HERO is 8/1 > 13/2 and if you do need to have a bet, dutch those three….with no confidence at all.
2-15 – You have a very long odds on favourite to try and get beaten….or not, as the case may be.
GLORIOUS ZOFF is 2/5 to make the trip from Ireland profitable…well, whatever is left from a first prize of £3,769 after those travel expenses have been covered.
2-50 – A Novices’ Handicap Chase and as mentioned earlier, players are not overly interested in these. The layers have kept one onside this morning, ROYAL CROWN. Not a race I’d be playing myself but if you opted for a 20/80 that one, I’d not blame you.
3-25 – Division I of a Class 5 Mares Handicap. I posted up an OMM in my morning Newsletter and I’d be happy with a 20/80 that one although two others are being punted:
- MO TOTTIE – 8/1 > 5/1
- LOSTNFOUND – 8/1 > 11/2
They make a feasible dutch with that morning OMM.
4-00 – The only horse for money here is HOT GOSSIP 14/1 > 8/1….pulled up last two runs, a maiden after 18 races under rules, I’d not be involved and if they land a touch, I’ll just read the stewards report.
Best of luck!