Badger landed, 11/1 winner, 110/1 CSF….let’s see what we can do today!

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A stunning start to our NH season, I think it is fair to say. If you didn’t access the Badger Profiling, this is what you missed: I thought I’d make it my first fully profiled race of the season and hopefully between these words and tomorrow’s numbers, we are somewhere close to finding the winner.

I’ll start as I usually do with age groupings. In the last 10 years no horse older than nine has won this race and, only one horse aged younger than seven so, with nine of the last 10 winners aged 7-9, that will be my first shortlist:

  • DANNY WHIZZBANG
  • POTTERMAN
  • SOME CHAOS
  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • COO STAR SIVOLA
  • COBRA DE MAI
  • SUPREMELY LUCKY
  • JUST A STING
  • IRISH PROPHECY
  • SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

Next I’d be looking at weight ranges and we do see a wide spread here. Only one horse though has carried less than 10st 6lb to victory in the last decade and nothing has carried more than 11st 9lb in that same period of time so, taking all that into account, we prune that list above:

  • POTTERMAN
  • SOME CHAOS
  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • COO STAR SIVOLA
  • COBRA DE MAI
  • SUPREMELY LUCKY
  • JUST A STING
  • IRISH PROPHECY
  • SIZING AT MIDNIGHT

Market position next. Only one winner has come from outside the front six on the tissue in the last 10 years and so those currently outside that range get their wings clipped now:

  • EL PRESENTE
  • CHAMPAGNE COURT
  • JUST A STING
  • POTTERMAN

Favourites have a funny old record in this. only five of the last 10 have actually completed the race but those that have, have form figures reading 1, 2, 1, 1, 1

Six of the last 10 winners actually occupied one of the front two places on the tissue, at the off.

Next I’m looking at how a horse had to have performed in its last race and with seven of the last 10 winners having won (5), or placed (2), it would seem to be the case you need to have shown some form.

That would narrow it down to a pair:

  • EL PRESENTE
  • POTTERMAN

Right now I’m still of a mind stable form counts for a lot and with Alan King (POTTERMAN), having a strike rate of just 5-51, his horses showing a 35% RTF (running to form), and Kim Bailey having saddled seven runners from his last 27 runners in the last two weeks, and his horse running to a 52% RTF, I would have to post up EL PRESENTE as the Profile selection.

Of course, it would be no shock at all to see Nicholls take this race again. he has won the last three running’s of the race, twice with PRESENT MAN, who will possibly go off favourite to win it for a third time.

I love DANNY WHIZZBANG and he turns out under last years winning jockey, racing first time following a wind-op.

Both are outside the weight range stated above and as a 10 year old, and you have to go back 20 years to find the last horse to manage to win it having turned 10 years of age, and before that it was PANTO PRINCE in 1993.

POST RACING PROFILE SELECTION:

EL PRESENTE – 20/80

If you would like to access my work on a daily basis, please visit this link and select a package.

STRATFORD

12-20 – The fourth favourite has been pulled out here and that has led to the front two having their prices adjusted….but DAN GUN is a mover, 14/1 > 15/2 and now joint third favourite.

It’s a very weak Class 5 but it does look set for a dutch PHOENIX DAWN, CREMANT, DAN GUN.

12-50 – Division I of another Class 5 and the morning odds on favourite is very weak 4/9 > 8/13 and that is because of the money for WAHWONAISA, 22/1 > 11/1.

You know my thoughts on odds on shots in novice events and here I ‘d just go 20/80 that mover.

1-25 – Division II of this Class 5 and we have a strong favourite, MISS GEMSTONE. The second favourite, DUBAI OUTLAW, is solid @ 7/2 and I’d pop a two horse dutch on.

2-00 – A very strong odds on favourite in a race I’d steer clear of for punting purposes….PRINCE ESCALUS 4/5 > 4/7 and whilst I am seeing two being nibbled at to place, I’d be inclined to do something else whilst this is on.

2-35 – Another odds on shot in a novice event. No wonder I’ve no rated races from here this afternoon. Shocking meeting. BATHIVA will probably win if in the same form as last weekend but we can afford to let it.

3-10 – ALL GOOD THINGS, 8/1 > 5/1 is the one being supported here, everything else drifting so consider a 20/80 that one. It’s yet another Class 5….whoever put this card together wants a rocket up the Khyber.

3-40 – I advised Post Racing subscribed members of an OMM this morning and I’m now seeing a little move for KAPSIZE 6/1 > 9/2.

Dutch with the OMM.

4-10 – Three to dutch in the Bumper:

  • RAINYDAY WOMAN – 2/1 > 7/4
  • HARDE FASHION – 15/2 > 7/2
  • FONTATA ELLISSI – 11/1 > 7/1

It’s a Bumper though….scary things, Bumpers.

SANDOWN

12-40 – Heck of a move going on for one here….and my subscribed members over at Post Racing were advised of it this morning. It looks like it is expected.

1-15 – Again here, Post Racing subscribers were told the name of one being supported overnight and it is still attracting punters in.

1-50 – Plenty of money for YOUR DARLING in this one, 2/1 > 6/5 and it’s 20/1 bar three. ADRIMEL looks the one for the CSF.

2-25 – Three runners, odds on in a novice chase, forget it for punting purposes.

3-00 – My only Rated race of the day and I am extremely happy with my figures, plus the fact my second highest rated is being bet heavily right now.

I expect to make a profit from this one.

3-30 – A Novelty race….I don’t do this kind of race and all I can tell you is, something will win it.

4-00 – A few days ago we had an OMM. It was withdrawn because of doubts over the ground. It runs here, it’s again an OMM….and it looks like it will be winning.

FFOS LAS

1-07 – SHAKEEM UP’ARRY is 8/13 > 1/2 to win this Novices’ Hurdle. I’ll leave it entirely up to you but again, odds on in Novice events….not for me.

1-42 – The Post Racing subscribed membership were advised of one here that had been well backed overnight….still is. I expect it to win.

2-17 – We have a Pipe runner being smashed off the boards here, MARTINHAL 7/2 > 2/1 and they have been taking all prices in between, too. The favourite isn’t weak and I’d suggest a two horse dutch, ASK ME EARLY / MARTINHAL, to trouser that profit.

2-50 – The front of the market in this race is weak on account of money for one I advised my subscribed members about this morning. I’d just go 20/80 the OMM, to minimal staking.

3-25 – Again here, we have an OMM….if you would like the names of these horses please do head over to Post Racing and select a package. This horse is still the one for money and appears to be a rock solid 20/80.

3-55 – The morning OMM is now easing slightly as they come for DONATELLO MAIL 7/2 > 5/2. MOUSEINTHEHOUSE is not weak though and I would suggest a three horse dutch to obtain your profit from this race.

4-25 – Here too, an OMM was indicated but a two horse dutch is now required as SEXY LOT is 4/1 > 9/4 and very, very strong.

An outsider being supported place only is CAPTAIN AULMES, 25/1 > 10/1 and if you wanted to be wearing an insurance blanket, you could dutch three.

Best of luck!

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