Three days of magic about to start with the first day of the Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting and I cannot wait for 1-15pm to arrive. I enjoy flat racing but NH racing is something else all together. It’s something that (when allowed), sees people in big coats standing in the wind, rain, sleet and snow, to cheer those horses and jockeys on and it’s Cheltenham that produces the biggest buzz of all.
1-15 – I advised my subscribed members we had an OMM here, last night. They continued to back it overnight and, they have continued to back it this morning, too. It does look like they expect it to win.
1-50 – My only Rated race here this afternoon and I’m happy with my figures. The favourite, which sits outside my top three, is not weak at all and if Post Racing members felt the need for a safety blanket they could dutch four but I’ll be working with my top three only.
2-25 – Only four going to post but it’s going to make for a fascinating watch. My subscribed members were advised we had a “mover” here last night and it has shortened still further. I’m on straight win.
3-00 – Cross Country races do absolutely nothing for me. I do not bet on them, I do not watch them.
3-35 – The market is telling me one of two horses win this, DOES HE KNOW, or GRAND MOGUL and, since I’d swallowed my last spoonful of porridge, they have made a move for GRAND MOGUL 3/1 > 5/2, whilst the Kim Bailey trained runner has eased 5/4 > 6/4.
You can make a 50% profit dutching the pair to current BF prices….nowt wrong with 50%.
4-05 – We have a proper mover here now, after this market having been sleeping since it opened. ONE TRUE KING is 13/2 > 7/2 and everything bar the favourite is drifting, THE BEES KNEES 7/2 > 10/3.
I have set up a two horse dutch and we’ll see what comes of it.
Something tells me the Twiston-Davies yard is about to catch fire.
11-45 – My Post Racing subscribed membership knew of an OMM here last night but I’m now of a mind we’ll need to dutch with HIDDEN DEPTHS, 5/1 > 7/2. At current BF prices the dutch produces over 60% of profit. I’d be happy with that.
12-18 – Division II of that Class 5 and I’m seeing four that could feasibly be utilised for dutching:
- ESPOIR MORIVIERE – 13/3 > 5/2
- VIKING RUBY (fluctuating between 11/4 & 9/4)
- SISSINGHURST – 10/1 > 4/1
- TOMORROW’S ANGEL – 12/1 > 6/1
I’m always wary of Class 5 gambles and so whilst that bottom pair look “off”, I’d still be looking to a dutch. You will secure a profit of 25% in the event one of the four wins it and with everything else on the drift, it looks likely one of them will. Class 5 though so staking should be kept low.
12-48 – Another Class 5, this time a Novices’ Chase and it’s one of the front three on this tissue that will be winning it, barring a shock result….which, in this grade, can very easily happen (see some of those results yesterday!).
The strongest of the three appears to be FURIUS DE CIERGUES, who has just his fourth run over fences this afternoon, ran well on seasonal debut and they have made sure they got the Champion jockey booked to ride it.
1-23 – A right move was going on for one here last night and Post Racing subscribed members knew. They are still getting on as I type.
1-58 – Novelty races….I do not like them. I put them in the same pigeon hole as Cross Country races and whilst I’ll tell you two here are being supported, CROCODILE DUNDEE 9/2 > 5/2, and CHARMIX 12/1 > 13/2, I’ll not be watching….I’ll just be about to start today’s Podcast, which will be ready for you to tune in to from 4-00pm latest!
2-33 – The first of my two rated races from this track and lovely to see them getting stuck right into my top rated horse now. I’m very happy my figures are right now I’ve seen that.
3-10 – My second Rated race. Again, they are absolutely smashing into my top rated horse….not sure I have enough subscribed members to move the market this much? Guess it must be “off”!
The favourite, PHOENIX DAWN is not weak, in fact, quite the opposite 5/2 > 2/1 and I’d now suggest dutching four.
3-40 – A 16 runner Bumper and the players have yet to move on it. Best advice is to wait until you can see the market for yourself, in the 30 minutes leading up to he off.
12-02 – I’m happy my Ratings have this boxed off, the money now arriving for my second highest rated horse.
12-32 – We have an odds on favourite sitting outside my top three here but I’m happy. Two of my three sitting top of my figures are being supported to beat it. Makes it interesting for a race at Southwell!
1-05 – This feels tricky. I’m seeing support for four, including JABULANI, 8/1 > 4/1….been missing for 586 days.
As this money arrived that saw the front two on the tissue drift but now, they have been clawed back in again.
A near 35% profit if one of the current tissue front four lands a dutch and that’s acceptable.
1-40 – The OMM advised last night is still solid at the price advised but they are now looking to BARABADOS BUCK’S 7/2 > 5/2.
A profit of just under 50% right now. I’d take that.
2-15 – Nothing is being supported to beat the odds on favourite, HOOPER. That kind of bet in a maiden novice appeal about as much as a driving lesson from Dominic Cummings so I’ll just let it win….if it does.
2-50 – Division I of a Class 5 and I’m seeing five punted to some degree. They occupy the front five places on the tissue as I am putting this down and if punting half the field to produce a profit of 25% floats your boat, there you have it.
3-25 – I advised my Post Racing subscribed members this morning that we had an additional OMM here and it looks likely that one, or the favourite, DASH OF BLUE 2/1 > 7/4, wins it. I’ll be dutching.
3-55 – A Class 5 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle to conclude the meeting.
A couple are being nibbled at….not movers….yet….and I’d not be looking to play this race myself. The one I’m keeping an eye on is ZARAZENA 11/1 > 8/1 and if I see further movement for it, I’ll go 20/80 to my minimum staking because I can never understand a horse that has raced only four times, never placed, been beaten 98 lengths, 63 lengths, 100 lengths and 25 lengths, attracting anything other than sniggers!
Best of luck!