Welcome to Saturday and it genuinely is heaving with quality racing from three tracks, Bangor looking weak but set to be exploited by Twiston-Davies.
Take it easy out there, don’t go mad with the bank, and just enjoy what is one of the best days racing of 2020.
11-45 – A strong favourite in CASTEL GANDOLFO but I’m also seeing support for SON OF RED 4/1 > 3/1 with the rest weak. A dutch should secure a profit.
12-20 – A Rated race which sees a weak favourite (my top rated), but that is purely and simply because money is coming for my fourth highest rated horse 14/1 > 7/1….I would now suggest a top four dutch.
12-55 – Post Racing subscribed members were advised of an OMM here and it is still holding up well. It would appear they now also feel TUPELO MISSISSIPPI had been allowed to get far to big and having gone 5/2 > 11/4, they have now pulled it back in, 9/4 the best I can see.
1-30 – Nothing had been seeing support overnight but they are now storming in to BARON DE MIDDLETON 8/1 > 7/2 and my play here would be a 20/80 that Ellison runner.
2-05 – EPATANTE has been incredibly weak on the tissue and you can now have E about a horse that was long odds on when they opened this market. SCEAU ROYAL and SILVER STREAK are being very well supported to beat last seasons Champion Hurdler.
Official Ratings suggest the winner simply has to come from the front three on the tissue and you can achieve a 15% profit playing that trio.
2-40 – Post Racing subscribed members were advised of an overnight steamer here and it is another race that sees the front three on the tissue very strong. A 28% profit is achievable working with the three currently to a dutch.
- EWOOD PARK
- FEARLESS FRACAS
3-15 – Great race and we are spoiled with this race following on from the Ladbroke Chase at Newbury….two such races in 15 minutes….my Christmas has arrived early!
More than pleased with my Podcast selection who has been very strong overnight and is in my dutch, as well as having played at bigger prices yesterday afternoon.
All it has to do now, is win.
12-05 – The overnight OMM is still attracting support, as is LORD BRENDY 7/1 > 9/2 and OUT FOR JUSTICE 10/1 > 7/1
The favourite is very weak FURIUS DE CIERGUES 5/2 > 7/2 and I would now consider a dutch LORD BRENDY / OUT FOR JUSTICE / THE OMM
12-35 – Down to six runners but I’m happy to work with the OMM advised in the Post Racing Newsletter this morning.
1-08 – PRESENTING MEGHAN has attracted support since the Newsletter went out 7/4 > E and very strong. It’s 7/1 bar two but the market is telling us DIDONATO is the less fancied of the top pair on the tissue, despite having opened up favourite last night.
1-43 – Decision making time here and the logical play here now is a dutch rated horses 1, 3, 6 and 10, the last being my bottom rated OMM.
I’m now seeing money for MICK MAESTRO 14/1 > 15/2, whilst my second highest rated horse is 33/1 > 50/1 and clearly running with a limp.
The ratings are my starting point, and always open to decision making….that’s my own for this race.
2-18 – A good competitive Novice ‘chase in which we had an overnight mover. Now though, that horses ease slightly….not enough to bother me merely back to its starting price last night.
MINELLA TRUMP is rock solid on 4/1, with SEDDON being sniffed out 5/1 > 6/1 > 9/2….I’m more than tempted to now dutch this race, that pair plus the OMM.
2-53 – Plenty of money for BIG BAD BEAR 10/1 > 6/1 and that one sits bottom rated. I’d now be considering a four horse dutch, top three plus this Nicky Richards runner now being punted.
This one has pulled up in two of its last three races but it would appear they’ve solved something!
3-28 – The Bumper to conclude and the morning mover is easing as the favourite strengthens, ARTHUR’S SEAT 13/8 > 7/4 > 6/4….if the market has it right one of the two wins it and a dutch right now achieves a profit of 62%.
12-10 – Plenty of money for one overnight and it is still being heavily supported but they will not let MRS HYDE go 5/2 without someone bouncing on it!
I’m happy with the OMM.
12-40 – Hopefully both Sean and I sorted this out in the podcast yesterday and this morning Nicholls has taken out SOUTHFIELD STONE so just five now go to post.
Money this morning is for KALOOKI 9/4 > 7/4 and it’s an intriguing little race now. Hopefully we have Podcast bragging rights next Friday!
1-15 – Brilliant race….rated, an OMM in my top three and I’m happy working with what was produced for the morning Newsletter.
1-50 – Another Rated race here and another absolute cracker. If my figures are right, we are in for a bit of a shock result to be honest. The market is not telling me much of anything, other than the favourite is expected to win it TEA CLIPPER 3/1 > 5/2….the race is only four years old and two favourites have won the middle pair, CHAMP being one of those.
I’ll just take what comes and not expecting anything.
2-25 – Yet another Rated race….my figures feel/look rock solid and I’m happy to work with them.
3-00 – When it comes to races like this, I prefer Profiling to figures and you can read my Profiling on the Post Racing website by clicking here.
My profiling suggest the horse I fancy for this seasons Grand National….interesting!
3-35 – Tons…and tons….and tons of money for the OMM advised in the morning Newsletter and we are also seeing huge fluctuations because they’ve pulled IBLEO….that was the tissue favourite and my dutch four still stands, introducing the horse rated fourth best in place of IBLEO.
12-15 – The OMM here looks “expected” but since my Newsletter went out money has come for PINK LEGEND 11/2 > 3/1 with the rest very weak.
12-47 – We now need to employ a four horse dutch as shekels are flying in for DUHALLOW LAD 9/1 > 9/2, fifth best on my numbers but clearly expected to have improved lumps for seasonal debut.
1-22 – I do not like this race one little bit. I said to myself this morning that Twiston-Davies is riding here on a promise, with so much good racing elsewhere and he coming to Bangor for….what? He rides a very short priced favourite here that I cannot get a handle on. Only six career starts to date, placed once, only raced twice before over fences and fell in one of those.
Trying to produce an accurate figure for this horse is a bit like trying to knit yogurt.
I’ll most likely not play it myself.
1-57 – Twiston-Davies with an odds on shot here….in a Novice event. A previous CD winner who is rated a lb suprior to the second favourite, who has to give him 7lb….wears first time head gear, the favourite should win….but, it’s odds on in a Novice event….no – thank – you.
2-32 – Guess what….yep, Twiston-Davies odds on shot. TOOK THE LOT is 4/7 now, another CD winner, in another novice event….moving swiftly on…..
3-07 – This is the weakest meeting of the four today and here we have a Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap. Seeing money for two:
- TIPALONG TYLER – 10/3 > 9/4
- ROLLERCOASTER – 5/1 > 7/2
Outside of that pair the only other runner winking at me is MILANVERA….8/1 and the only horse not moving one way or another….keep a very close eye on this market.
I’d dutch that trio.
3-42 – The Bumper to close this weak meeting and it’s the Twiston-Davies trained/ridden MACFIN favourite and strong. Money for FLANN 5/1 > 10/3 but this looks and feels like a Twiston-Davies day, to sort out the Christmas expenses for their staff.
Best of luck!