The racing today is slowly falling apart as a steady stream of non-runners is coming through. No fewer than 23 since the Newsletter went out htis morning and I’ve a feeling we may see ground worse than officially described but, until we’ve seen that with our own eyes, not a lot we can do about it. Plenty going on out in the market place but in a good few races it is leaving a confusing picture. Again, this is probably all due in no small way to the ground. If you are working with the Rated races, caution advised.
I would like to be able to make a more positive statement than that but unti I know for sure, I’m as stuck as anyone else.
12-00 – The two for money here are OTTONIAN 5/2 > 15/8 and TOMMY’S OSCAR 10/3 > 15/8. Everything else is very much on the slide. Of that pair it would be TOMMY’S OSCAR stronger in terms of support. You get a 50% profit off a dutch but I’m not confident the third favourite can be completely ruled out and so I’ll pass.
12-35 – My second highest rated has been pulled out here and so Post Racing members should simply employ “Natural Progression” to the figures and play the new top three.
1-05 – Class 5 Handicap, and as ridiculous as it appears, we have a steamer in HORST 66/1 > 16/1. This thing runs first time following a wind-op and arrives having pulled up in three of its last four starts, finishing a 31 length seventh on that other start. It has done diddly squat since Micky Hammond bought it from France way back in 2018. He got shut of it in August since when it has run three times for Lynn Siddall, if you can call it running.
If this goes in, they’ll be asking questions in the house!
A no bet race with bells on for me.
1-40 – There was money for QUICK PICK this morning 3/1 > 9/4…..now 5/2 but both the favourite and third favourite are weak so a 20/80 the mover, running first time in cheekpieces for a trainer in a bit of form (her horses running to a 52% RTF), and Brian Hughes booked to ride this previous course winner.
2-15 – SHANTOU EXPRESS appears to have a “gimme” and if you are happy playing at 2/5 in a Novice event, you have one here.
2-50 – My second Rated race here and the OMM advised is extremely strong so, AS PER NEWSLETTER!
3-25 – Bumper to conclude and we have a horse running here that I had looked at as a potential purchase, HARDE FASHION, for The Clover Club. The asking price is £50k plus VAT….bit rich at this point but you get an idea of what my thinking is.
Opened 10/11 following a promising debut 26 days ago, now 6/5 as money is coming for NEW DELHI EXPRESS, 7/1 > 9/2
Not a betting race for me at all but very much looking to see HARDE FASHION running, with an eye on it going over obstacles….nice mark up if Kim can get £50k for it….he only paid £5k in May last year!
12-25 – Very weak favourite but it’s another of those races we’ve seen recently, where we have a market that is simply all over the place:
- KERB LINE 7/4 > 2/1 > 9/4 > 11/4
- PUZZLE CACHE – 28/1 > 10/1
- RAGTAG RASCAL – 50/1 > 20/1
….and then we have that OMM to consider, too, backed from a silly price into 12/1, drifted back out to 16/1 and now 12/1 again.
It’s a Conditional and Amateurs Class 5….I’m out!
12-55 – I had an OMM here that I’m inclined to think we can forget about, now returned to it’s opening show as money aplenty is being lumped on THE BRASS MAN 10/3 > 15/8.
This one runs second time following a wind-op and it looks for all the world like they expect it to go in today….it’s a race though I feel like I’ll be guessing, if I play….so I personally wont.
1-30 – Very weak favourite in CROSSLEY TENDER 6/4 > 5/2 and I don’t think it’ll be long before 3/1 is about. The money is for HUNTSMANS JOG 3/1 > 9/4, with AVOID DE MASTER 7/2 > 11/4 also attracting some in. Both are trained by Fergal O’Brien, who is having a great time of it right now.
Only five going to post and I’m never very keen on races of less than six runners. Less keen here given that pair come from the same yard and I am not privy to riding instructions.
2-05 – One of my 20 to Follow here, THE BIG BREAKAWAY, who opened 2/13 to beat his three rivals but is now up at 2/9. They have shaved half a point off BOLD PLAN 4/1 > 7/2 but if the favourite is as good as I said he would be earlier this year, then he wins this pulling a caravan. Do you fancy £900 to win £200?
2-40 – One of my two rated races here. Cracking little race that I’ll work to my figures, even though MOLINEAUX was punted this morning 5/1 > 7/2….the second they put up 4/1 again, bang, in they went, 7/2 the best up.
Several of them attracting interest of some kind though and should make for a cracker.
3-15 – I do not usually rate races being run over further than three miles as not many have form….or will ever have form….over such a trip. I found myself thinking though, “those numbers don’t look bad at all”. I’ll play them and possibly give myself a kicking afterwards…minimal staking this end.
3-50 – This has been a market that was fun to watch! AUTONOMOUS CLOUD opened Evens, and was smashed in to 4/9….but then, someone started playing GENTLE KATE 9/1 > 6/1.
Then the Paul Henderson 33/1 shot TZUNAMI….33/1 > 14/1, followed by BARBARIAN 50/1 > 16/1, HAZY DREAM 33/1 > 18/1, SAM HAZE 40/1 . 18/1….then I said, “hang on….four have come out!”….2nd favourite, third favourite and the morning OMM….just sitting here shaking my head now.
I’m not a fan of Exeter at the best of times to be honest and my betting here resembles that of Scrooge handing out a bonus.
12-45 – Amateur riders event to kick us off. I’ve had a 20/80 the OMM, that didn’t cause panic in the trading rooms.
1-15 – This race is falling apart….so many non-runners this morning. Three have come out since I sent my work out to Post Racing subscribed members, so it no longer resembles the race I worked on. Feel free to do with it as you please because I have no time at all to rewrite that race.
1-50 – AS PER NEWSLETTER
2-25 – Not a race I’m looking at for anything at all. It is now down to just four runners, all I’m seeing are market adjustments and whilst is looks a good race on paper, I’m more interested in watching how STAR GATE gates on against older horses, than I’d ever be in placing a bet on it.
3-00 – We have no more non-runners here, two taken out whilst I was prepping it. If the market is right, then my figures are absolute pants….my seventh highest rated is 11/2 > 4/1 and now favourite, my bottom rated is a Chris Gordon punt 11/1 > 13/2, my top rated is 14/1 > 25/1, and it’s giving of a right stink now. I’m thinking I’ll dutch rated horses 2 & 9….two of those in the original play….with ESPION.
The market is suggesting a good few here are fancied though, including FLEMCARA 9/1 > 6/1….but I’ll take those 3 x 6-y-o’s who have the second best record in the race after five year olds, who have won four of the last 10…..which suggests Chris Gordon’s will run well….that’s the only 5-y-o in here.
3-35 – AS PER NEWSLETTER
Best of luck!