Exeter abandoned but we have terrific racing at Musselburgh!

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It was not great news losing today’s Cheltenham meeting and Exeter has just been called off due to the track being frozen. The racing at Musselburgh is superb, five lovely handicaps to work with and if you do not receive the Post Racing Newsletter this is what you would have received today…you can have everything free of subscription or donations:

OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVERS

How to use Market Movers

If Market Movers occur in a Rated race, after my first Newsletter has gone out, I will advise members via my article on The World Of Sport website. A number of trends emerged and if, after applying the Rated Races and Bottom Rated Favourites criteria, there are still only 3 selections in your Dutch, then a Market Mover may be introduced to make a Dutch 4 bet. For those Market Movers that are not in Rated Races, consider using Market Movers based on price and market movement, adjusting your staking levels accordingly. Of course, you can use the Market Movers in whichever way suits you and concentrate solely on those to straight win or, to 20/80.

MUSSELBURGH

  • 12-45 – FIVEANDTWENTY – 8/13 > 4/9
  • 1-20 – SEBASTAPOL – 9/2 > 10/3
  • 1-20 – KAIZER – 10/1 > 7/1
  • 1-55 – MIRANDA – 7/2 > 5/2
  • 1-55 – HAZZAAR – 9/1 > 5/1
  • 1-55 – ROSIE AND MILLIE – 7/1 > 4/1
  • 2-30 – EAGLE RIDGE – 5/1 > 7/2
  • 3-05 – ROMAIN DE SENAM – 6/1 > 4/1
  • 3-05 – SCHIEHALLION MUNRO – 8/1 > 13/2

EXETER

  • 2-50 – HOLD THAT TAUGHT – 5/1 > 7/2
  • 2-50 – MUCKAMORE – 5/1 > 10/3

WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. § – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

Whilst working with Astech Gold between August 2017, to August 2019, we developed a way of utilising the information provided that would offer up the most potential for making profit. Nothing, when it comes to betting, gambling, investing, call it what you will, comes guaranteed, or bearing a certificate of infallibility….whenever we trust our money to flesh and blood, it will always carry a wealth warning.

What I am adding to each race below is text that covers how you could contemplate working it, based on all the information you have at the moment you receive my work.

The problem is, because we deal with handicaps, the definitive information as to what may happen, might not become apparent until five minutes before a race is about to start. By that I mean a yard that has been plotting a touch for some time might only go in to punt it in the 10 minutes before the off. When that happens and the touch is landed, chances are we lose money.

Many of you will not be in a position to adjust your position (that happens to me, doing this for a living, too), and of course, not everyone will achieve the same levels of profit for a variety of reasons.

I will be re-writing the Stake Management section of the website but the rules will remain the same.

If something below, which refers to working with Rated races only, confuses or befuddles you, do not hesitate in getting back to me.

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

Q – What should I do if I have an OMM and a bottom rated favourite in the same race?

A – Astech gold preferred utilising the bottom rated favourite, I prefer utilising the OMM. Astech Gold turned £1k into £41k in 104 weeks and I also made a nice profit. Their is no definitive answer so pick one, and stick with it.

Q – What should I do if the third, fourth or even fifth horse have the same rating?

A – Data indicates that when the 3rdand 4thlisted in the Rated Races have the same rating the 4thrated horse produces the same investment level returns as the 3rdrated selection.

If you already have a Dutch 4 following the previous trends (OMM, bottom rated favourite), then ignore this.

However, if you wish to create a Dutch 4 then consider including the 4th or even 5th or more listed selections if it has the same rating as the 3rd in the ratings and includes the selection with the lowest odds.

Q – What if we have two OMM’s in the same race, outside the top six rated horses?

A – Create your Dutch 4 using the lowest priced of the OMM’s.

You could choose to keep it all very simple and only work with rated races having no OMM’s or BRF (Bottom Rated Favourite)….straight top three dutch, when the prices of my top three rated indicate the potential for profit is greater by virtue of their market position.

TODAY’S RATINGS

MUSSELBURGH 1-20

  • (OMM), T* – SEBASTAPOL….+25
  • T – NAVAJO PASS….+15
  • T – ACCOMPLICE….+14
  • * – I’M TO BLAME….+9
  • NEWTOWN BOY….-6
  • ELF DE RE….-24
  • * – CLEARANCE….-24
  • SKIDDAW VALLEYS….-25
  • * – KAIZER….-39

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

MUSSELBURGH 1-55

  • (OMM), TH* – HAZZAAR….+17
  • (OMM), T* – MIRANDA….+3
  • RAYMOND….-7
  • * – CAIUS MARCIUS….-11
  • T – MANICCI….-14
  • W2, T – BLAKENEY POINT….-15
  • T* – SWAFFHAM BULBECK….-21
  • (OMM) – ROSIE AND MILLIE….-35
  • VOIX DU REVE….-39

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS OMM

MUSSELBURGH 2-30

  • (OMM), * – EAGLE RIDGE….+9
  • * – SHANROE STREET….+8
  • * – BUCKLED….+3
  • T – DANBORU….-2
  • BROTHERLY COMPANY….-9
  • * – DAMIEN’S DILEMMA….-12
  • T* – OSCAR CEREMONY….-14
  • * – EXIT TO WHERE….-18
  • RACING PULSE….-20
  • EMIRAT DE CATANA….-34
  • ACDC….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

MUSSELBURGH 3-05

  • GET OUT THE GATE….+14
  • W2, * – RETURN TICKET….+11
  • (OMM), T* – ROMAIN DE SENAM….+10
  • T* – GARDE LE VICTOIRE….+10
  • T – RED RISK….+2
  • T* – FANZIO….-2
  • (OMM), T* – SCHIEHALLION MUNRO….-11
  • MINT GOLD….-12
  • * – COOL MIX….-18
  • W – VOIX D’EAU….-24
  • T* – BIGMARTRE….-35

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS OMM

MUSSELBURGH 3-35

  • TH – WHISKEY LULLABY….+16
  • T – MIDNIGHT AURORA….+10
  • * – TOKARAMORE….-12
  • * – COURT BALOO….-16
  • BULLION BOSS….-21
  • OSCAR CLOUDS….-25
  • T – WYNFORD….-27
  • W, T – PRUSSIA WITH LOVE….-28
  • OFF THE BEAT….-29
  • A LADIES MILAN….-35
  • ARNICA….-40
  • H – THE BLAME GAME….-40
  • ARKYN….-40
  • WEE GOLDIE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

That is everything that went out to my subscribed members this morning. Since that Newsletter went out, this is what I’ve seen happening with the markets:

MUSSELBURGH

12-45 – AS PER NEWSLETTER….when you see those words, that tells my subscribed members that I have nothing to add to what was in the morning Newsletter. See OMM’s (Overnight Market Movers) section above.

1-20 – AS PER NEWSLETTER

1-55 – We have four non-runners here (see rated race above). We knew of two already but now down to just seven runners, my own play here will be Dutch of the three OMM’s.

2-30 – My second and third highest rated horses here have been pulled out and so my own play now will be a dutch rated horses 1, 2, 5….that third horse coming into the play by virtue of natural progression.

3-05 – I have seen a bit of a punt going on here, COOL MIX 6/1 > 4/1 clear favourite and strong. This horse rates 9th best on my figures but should now be considered for dutching purposes. This horse ran third in this race last year and has obviously been aimed at it again but in all honesty, I’m happy with my numbers and will stick to the play I had in mind around 6-00am this morning. You will have your own decision to make with regards COOL MIX.

3-35 – ARNICA has been attracting some good support this morning 6/1 > 4/1

EXETER

ABANDONED

Best of luck!

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