Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Salisbury and Ayr – 08/06/21

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WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

SALISBURY 2-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • MOONLIGHTING….+3
  • T – MARROOJ….-1
  • T* – ROCA MAJICA….-27
  • H – ELEGANT ERIN….-31
  • (OMM), * – FOXY FEMME….-33
  • ASCRAEUS….-40
  • (OMM), H – MARCHETTI….-40
  • (MMM), T – POET’S EYE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS: A pig of a race. No history to work with and we now have MARCHETTI on the drift, and my bottom rated horse halving in price since my last Newsletter went out. A race I’ll not get involved in.

SALISBURY 4-30

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • H – BRONZE RIVER….+3
  • LA HULOTTE….-25
  • HARLOW….-30
  • WITH PLEASURE….-31
  • (BRF / OMM) – HAWRIDGE FLYER….-40
  • KING’S CASTLE….-40
  • DARK SCIMITAR….-40
  • W, H – RETROSPECT….-40
  • LUMINATION….-40
  • W2 – KING’S PROCTOR….-40
  • DECORA….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF / OMM

SCRIBBLINGS: Three 4-y-o’s have won this in the last nine years but only one in the last seven so I’d suggest an older horse is required. I’ve got last years winner pegged as an anomaly because it was the joint oldest to win it at 8 years of age, it carried just 8st 2lb and it won @ 33/1. Seven of the previous eight winners all carried more than 9st and the biggest price winner in those eight years, was 8/1

Prior to last year the winner had been in the front three on the tissue in five of the previous seven running’s and the favourite, in the last six years, has finished 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 2 and right now we have a bottom rated c0-favourite of four (yep, four!), that has been supported overnight. He’s an older horse, carrying more than 9st and, he fits “scribblings” like a glove…..as does HARLOW, who is in my top three rated.

I’m of a mind I should just work as suggested….dutch 1, 2, 3, 5….I’ll monitor and report back around 11-30am.

AYR 5-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • PEARL OF QATAR….+9
  • * – ORIENTAL LILLY….+5
  • (OMM), TH – AVEBURY….-19
  • T – JAARIYAH….-40
  • AMAZING ALBA….-40
  • TH – NEVER IN PARIS….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS: NO PREVIOUS RUNNING OF THIS RACE

The morning OMM is now back out to it’s opening show of 6/1 and weak. My top rated is now odds on, my second highest rated horse 15/2 > 14/1 and it’s all simply indicative of how bad the racing is today. Another race I’ll be going nowhere near. My top rated probably wins it but backing odds on in handicaps is not my idea of fun.

AYR 6-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • * – TRICORN….-2
  • TH – MUSABAHA….-19
  • AYR POET….-31
  • BREQUET BOY….-40
  • T – CHIEF CRAFTSMAN….-40
  • TH – ZEIMAAM….-40
  • (OMM), T – ROCKET ROD….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS: NO PREVIOUS RUNNING OF THIS RACE

Another OMM back out to it’s opening show of 10/1….it’s mad out there today. My top rated is the right favourite @ 5/2, HAVING OPENED 9/4, and nothing is being supported to beat him so if I get involved here, it’ll be a straight win pop.

AYR 7-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • T* – CATCH MY BREATH….+30
  • * – TOMMY G….+11
  • T* – MIDNITE BRIDE….+9
  • T* – XCELENTE….-21
  • T – CHALLET….-21
  • BRINGITONBORIS….-31
  • (OMM) – RED BOND….-37

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – 

SCRIBBLINGS: NO PREVIOUS RUNNING OF THIS RACE

The morning OMM has drifted two points as they now come for CHALLET 7/1 > 9/2. If they were giving TOMMY G away with a puppy, they have no takers….9/4 > 9/2. My top rated is 13/2 > 15/2, so of my top trio only MIDNITE BRIDE remains interesting as she has been fluctuating like a fluctuator all morning but someone now has a grip on her….7/2 > 11/4..and favourite.

Doing my head in this morning, it is!

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