We have several things against us here, one being soft ground, the second is that we start with an Apprentice’s race and the third is, we’ve two juveniles races, that could throw up kinds of daft results….I guess guessing is all part of the “fun”. I have not got a baldy clue as to what they are doing at home…or are not doing, whether their first trip to a racecourse spooks the life of of them and so we’ll have two in the first of those races running for us, based on the limited trends I can apply to them.
- LEG 1 – The Apprentice Handicap. Wish me luck, I’m going in! The last nine running’s of this have seen horses in the front four on the tissue winning on six occasions. Favourites have placed on four occasions, winning three times in that nine year period. Only one winner has started bigger than 8/1. Only three of the last nine winners carried less than 9st and one of those carted 8st 13lb so let’s run with the weight range of 9st – 9st 5lb because only one horse has won this carrying more than my highest weight in the range I’m looking to play with. Only two horses fit all trends, SUNS UP GUNS UP (14), the current tissue favourite, and POLAR CLOUD, currently half a point longer @ 4/1. We might just need both onside here. SELECTIONS – 12, 14
- LEG 2 – Ed Walker has booked Oisin Murphy to ride several here tonight and all appear to be well fancied, including PEGGOTY in this two years olds only event. It is 8/1 bar that one (6/4) and the newcomer NAZANIN, who makes racecourse debut. Neither trainer has a particularly brilliant record with juveniles here, Ed Walker 0-32 and Archie Watson 2-20 so we’ll work with Watson’s debutante and NEXT SECOND. This horse also makes debut for Roger Charlton, who has an outstanding 22% strike rate with juveniles at Newbury, producing a level stake profit of £22.41 to £1. It would certainly help the dividend if we can get that favourite out of the frame.- SELECTIONS – 3, 7
- LEG 3 – An extremely strong favourite in this juvenile event and hard as I have tried, I cannot get WILD BEAUTY out of the frame – SELECTION – 1
- LEG 4 – I covered this in my morning Scribblings and feel quite safe introducing NAVEGAON GATE (9), into our permutations, based on the stats/trends discussed earlier. SELECTION – 9
- LEG 5 – Three non-runners here leave just nine going to post in this all 3-y-o Handicap. We have a soft ground winner currently trading the 2/1 favourite TYPICAL MAN 1-1 on ground with give underfoot. With so many lightly raced types in here I’m going to need a pair working for us but with no trends/stats to help me glue it all together, I’m looking to the market for assistance. Everything bar TYPICAL MAN (4), and DEPUTY (10), is drifting on the tissue as I type so I’ll play safe and drop them into our perm. SELECTIONS – 4, 10
- LEG 6 – Since last night I felt the reason Murphy was here to ride, was SUNSET BAY. a 3-y-o in an all aged handicap, and that age grouping producing two winners and seven p,=laced horses, from just 17 entries, in the four seasons they have run this event. I’ll have him in as a last race banker. SELECTION – 10
Best of luck!