Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Ayr – 04/07/21

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Today we start using The World Of Sport website as our first port of call for everything. I got a call from our website developers a few minutes before my T.W.O.S Donators Newsletter went out yesterday, asking me not to post up whilst they “tightened a few things up”. The problem was that we had an influx of members start visiting the site over the last couple of days, and that highlighted a few things that needed taking care of.

I needed people to start trying to break this in mid-June but I think a good few of you felt you’d only start using it from July 1st and issues arose.

JUST TO REMIND YOU

You do not have a visible login on this website. The only time you need to login is when you click on an article that is for the eyes of “Donators Only”….and the link will then appear on that article.

YESTERDAY

I had spend a ton of hours working on that lot and the rains came and ruined it at Haydock and Beverley. I’d worked on the understanding it was now worse than good, good to firm in places at Haydock….they kicked off on soft and the first race was won by a horse rated seventh best on my figures, whose only previous wins on turf, had come on soft ground.

In the Old Newton Cup….ALOUNAK….won by three lengths pulling a cart….when the ground rides soft, he’s a Group class animal but on the ground I worked with, he was ninth best.

Five horses were pulled out because of the going change, two of those in my top four, including my top rated.

Beverley changed their going description three times….four, if you include the original description of good to firm. Changed to “good” after race one, changed to good to soft after race two and changed to soft after race five but trust me, it was soft much earlier than that. I knew after the third race, when horses ran all over the track in search of the best ground.

Sandown was where we had all the “fun”.

I could not believe what happened at 1-15pm. Our horse won that and we’ve been cheated….no other word for it. At 2-25pm, what I thought might happen, happened and my top rated won it, without my having a penny on it.

It was simply a day when things went from bad to worse for me personally. After that race I opted not to bet at all and missed my profit from the Leicester 3-20pm, the Sandown 4-10, I had nothing on GUNNERSIDE in that race that “fitted him like a glove” and I also ignored the Carlisle 8-20 race in which the two 3-y-o’s I suggested should be dutched with the favourite, came home 1st and 2nd @ 7/1 and 5/1.

If you listened to the podcast, you will have heard me say how well Mark Johnston has been doing with those critters in all aged handicaps….and his was the 7/1 winner.

Sean and I covered the issue of 3-y-o’s in all aged handicaps and I gave those listening some interesting stats to take on board.

Since Royal Ascot we had seen 20 all aged handicaps containing two or more 3-y-o’s. They had won 14 of them. Whilst we were doing the podcast, that became 15-21, as the Doncaster 2-10 went to a 3-y-o.

At Haydock that same evening (and whilst we still had the ground!), I had produced two rated races, that had not a single 3-y-o in either. We saw two top rated winners @ 8/1 and 6/1.

This will, as I’ve said before, all start to calm down eventually but these two weeks after Royal Ascot will always be where I have to get my thinking cap on and work these out in greater detail for you. You will have seen that by picking the bones out of the stats and trends that we can locate winners from such races (MID WINSTER on Friday and yesterday DANCE FEVER), but it’s a fortnight of purgatory for me and a lot of hours doing what I do, added on.

TODAY

I have to laugh. After a period of 72 hours of non-stop action here, when I’m up the wall with weekend racing and the Podcast, I have a day like today when I can catch my breath. I’d much rather they spread those Saturday cards across the two days. It was completely manic yesterday and at one point the two guys in the RTV studio actually appeared on screen ,one saying “we have a moment to breathe!”

All I have today is one rated race and it’s never going to be a race I will get involved in. You can have my figures and Scribblings now plus the OMM’s for Ayr but my advice would be, get out of the house, go for a good long walk and get ready for next week.

Best of luck!

OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVERS

How to use Market Movers

A number of trends emerged and if, after applying the Rated Races and Bottom Rated Favourites criteria, there are still only 3 selections in your Dutch, then a Market Mover may be introduced to make a Dutch 4 bet. For those Market Movers that are not in Rated Races, consider using Market Movers based on price and market movement, adjusting your staking levels accordingly. Of course, you can use the Market Movers in whichever way suits you and concentrate solely on those to straight win or, to 20/80.

UPDATE COLOUR CODING (FROM 11-30AM)

ORANGE = NEW MOVER

PURPLE = STRONG OMM

LIGHT BLUE = DRIFTER

AYR

  • 1-30 – NOBLE CRUSADE – 7/2 > 5/2
  • 1-30 – GLASSES UP – 6/1 > 5/2
  • 2-03 – VENTURA KINGDOM – 5/1 > 10/3

WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

AYR 1-30

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

  • (OMM), * – GLASSES UP….+9
  • T* – SANDRET….+9
  • AYR POET….-20
  • 3T – STATE OF BLISS….-27
  • 3T – CAMELOT TALES….-40
  • (OMM), 3 – NOBLE CRUSADE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS: Just one rated race, six runners, three of which are 3-y-o’s. My top and bottom rated are OMM’s, we have another 3-y-o rated -40 that has made a round trip of 720 miles to race for a first prize of less than £4.5k, and that bottom rated horse is making handicap debut. Three runs, a 3-y-o….absolutely impossible to produce a Handicap mark for….hence bottom rated on -40.

Trends say, we’ve had eight previous running’s of this, four of which have been won by 3-y-o’s….including the last three. If you are carrying less than 8st 10lb, forget it….only one of the eight previous winners pulled that off.

Market position – only one of the eight winners has been outside the front four on the tissue but, we’ve had just one winning favourite. Four of those eight winners were fourth best on the tissue.

Six of those eight winners arrived having won or placed last time out.

The trends, such as they are being so limited, suggests one of STATE OF BLISS or NOBLE CRUSADE wins this race. If you simply cannot resist, dutch that pair but I’m off to the woods with the dogs.

PS….should just add….Keith Dalgleish has trained two of the eight previous winners and he saddles NOBLE CRUSADE.

UPDATE:

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