With the news Beverley has now gone soft, good to soft in places I’m going to concentrate my efforts on finding us something from those gaff tracks at Bath and Brighton.
I promised I would look at every race being run at Brighton for a member going racing there tonight so, here goes!
5-00 – Only five now going to post and the most obvious selection for Placepot purposes would be AISH, who in unbeaten here in two starts. Last time she had MINAAJ over a length back in third and whilst that one is 4lb better off, the winner won cosy. I’m thinking a bigger danger will be all weather horse BUY ME BACK but I would expect AISH to win again. This is a track that finds horses out in the same way Epsom does and the fact she’s 2-2 bolsters confidence….if you can have confidence in a Class 5 horse.
5-35 – Class 6 Maiden. Five going to post with three having had just five racecourse appearances between them. A race that is impossible to read. They have a horse trading 5/4 favourite that is already 0-17 and here we have a race that is a prime example of why I personally never bet here.
Interesting….Ray Dawson has only ridden here 17 times, four of those rides for Robert Cowell….and he won on two of them. He’s riding SIMPLY SLEW for Cowell here.
No point me even trying to guess what is going to happen, as a guess is all it would be….yours would be every bit as good as mine but that stat makes the Cowell horse one to consider.
6-05 – Oh Lord, I’m sorry I said I’d do this. A Class 6 Maiden Auction, six runners, the current second favourite has been missing from action for 925 days, we have the fourth favourite returning from an absence of 342 days, having only ever raced once in it’s life, and runs in a first time tongue-tie.
We have a 2/7 favourite that would appear to only have to go forwards to win it and as the Racing Post says, “….will never have a better chance of getting off the mark”. Would I punt FLAME OF FREEDOM at those odds? Do I even have to digify that question with an answer?
6-35 – Yet another six runner Class 6….you’ll have to let me know how much they are paying you to attend this meeting. I’m seeing three horses being backed….most likely fivers by connections.
- ELTHAM PALACE – 5/1 > 3/1
- CONFILS – 7/1 > 7/2
- ESSPEEGEE – 12/1 > 6/1
The first named is still a maiden after 10 starts, CONFILS has not won a race of any description since July 2019 and the last named is a previous CD winner, the last win here coming in August 2019.
It is interesting that Jack Mitchells comes here for just one ride (ESSPEEGEE), as he has a seriously healthy 28% strike rate at this track, seven winners from just 25 rides.
I’d suggest, if you must bet, CONFILS is the one I’d run with. A beaten favourite last time out we do at least know 20% of those win next time they go racing. Possibly a CSF with Jack’s horse?
7-05 – Seven runner Class 5. Here we have another beaten favourite last time out, trading favourite and solid on the tissue at 5/2. GALACTIC FLOW is being nibbled at 15/2 > 9/2….a 16 times raced maiden. The only other time this horse saw support was when De Souza rode him at Goodwood and he went off 11/4…..double figure prices every other time he has raced for this trainer. He though is a 4-y-o in with six 3-y-o’s and the trainers of those younger horses will have a problem if a few don’t finish in front of this Dace runner.
GALACTIC FLOW used to be trained by Menuisier….who trains the current tissue favourite, KEMSCOTT. First time tongue-tie applied today and I’ll go with KEMSCOTT to beat the 4-y-o.
7-35 – I have rated this race as it’s a Class 4:
- (OMM), 3 – ARCTIC EMPEROR….+9
- * – BUCKINGHAM….+8
- 3 – ESCAPE….-2
- (OMM) – ALIBABA….-15
- * – STRAWBERRY JACK….-33
- MISS ELSA….-40
We had seven in here but FOX POWER has been pulled out. The market is all over my top rated horse and it does look likely Hollie Doyle and Archie Watson will add to the two winners and a runner up enjoyed at Lingfield last night. I’d certainly consider a top two CSF.
8-05/8-35 – The meeting ends with a divided Class 6 with three now having been taken out of the 8-35, leaving just seven there.
We have a short priced favourite in Leg 1….a previous CD winner who must have sipped on some Lorenzo’s Oil because FINVARRA was a 23 raced maiden until recently and he clearly has a love of a funky track as his form figures here now read 3, 1, 2, 1….if he doesn’t win this, I couldn’t tell you what might.
The last race on the card sees four of the seven left having previous CD form. I am now seeing a heck of a punt on SLY MADAM though, 20/1 > 9/1, a 3-y-o, only three previous runs on turf, and never having finished with 18 lengths of the winner of those races. We have a very short priced favourite in THOMAS LANFIERE who has been running well enough recently and who won under today’s jockey, at this track in April.
Form tells me THOMAS LANFIERE wins it but the money for that Channon horse says I should keep an eye on the market for as long as possible, before parting with a bean.
I’m thinking we leave it there…keep it fun, stake only what you can afford to lose!