Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Catterick – 14/07/21

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WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

CATTERICK 3-30

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

SEAS OF ELZAAM….+10
* – LOOK OUT LOUIS….+8
(OMM), 3 – COTTAM LANE….+2
* – BOSSIPOP….-4
JILL ROSE….-20
INTRINSIC BOND….-38
WENTWORTH FALLS….-40
3 – READY FREDDIE GO….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS: Just seven previous running’s of this race. Four of the last five running’s have gone to horses aged 5+, the oldest winner to date aged nine.

Only one winner has carried less than 9st and that was ROSE MARMARA  in 2018, who carried 8st 11lb.

Last years 33/1 winner was an anomaly as the previous five winners were all top four on the tissue, although just one winning favourite to date.

None of the previous seven winners arrived for this race having won last time out, but five did arrive having placed. 

I have a 3-y-o that has been very well supported this morning and I’m thinking that, with stats/trends relatively thin on the ground, I should simply run up a top three dutch.

UPDATE:

CATTERICK 4-05

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

T* – GOMETRA GINTY….+10
PARYS MOUNTAIN….-22
* – SHAWAAMEKH….-25
* – MUNTADAB….-28
* – ELDELBAR….-31
* – MAGICAL EFFECT….-40
FENNAAN….-40
T3 – FAST MEDICINE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED:

DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS: NO PREVIOUS RUNNING OF THIS RACE.

UPDATE:

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