Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Newbury, Newmarket and Thirsk – 13/08/21

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WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

NEWBURY 2-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L-M/H

3* – BHUBEZI….-3
3 – MARLEY PARK….-20
* – MR TYRELL….-25
SIR TITAN….-38
BRF/OMM, 3 – SIYATA….-40
3 – FANGHORN….-40
SPANISH STAR….-40
ZHUI FENG….-40
TOMMY ROCK….-40
FIREPOWER….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF/OMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

NO PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE

UPDATE: 

NEWBURY 4-30

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L-M/H

* – DOGGED….+11
* – TURNTABLE….-8
(MMM) – WALHAAN….-24
BRF, 3 – NEENEE’S CHOICE….-40
3TH – BAKERSBOY….-40
* – TOP SECRET….-39
OMM – WILLYORWON’T HE….-40

3 – CHORITZO….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF

SCRIBBLINGS:

ONLY SIX PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE

No winning favourites to date and if previous editions are anything to go by, with winners priced 16/1, 10/1, 9/1, 14/1 and 12/1 then you feel it’s not a race you want to get heavily involved in at all.

Every winner to date has been aged three (3), or four (3), years of age and five winners carried more than 9st.

Not a great race for trends just yet and my guts are saying go rated horses 3, 4, 7….that WILLYORWON’T HE is getting very steady support, having already been punted overnight. Not “strong” as such but more than interesting.

Given everything I’ve written, no result surprises me.

UPDATE: 

NEWMARKET 5-35

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L-M/H

3$* – AL SAARIYAH….+9
$* – YIMOU….+9
(OMM), H$ – RAATEA….+2
(OMM), T* – ABLE KANE….+2
(OMM), 3 – HYDE PARK BARRACKS….+/-0

* – PISTOLETTO….-11
$* – PHOENIX STAR….-12
* – TRIGGERED….-14
* – RECALL THE SHOW….-14
$ – LEGENDE D’ART….-15
JACK RYAN….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS ABLE KANE

SCRIBBLINGS:

Best race of the day….and very competitive/tricky to work with. Three OMM’s this morning, two of which have eased with just RAATEA continuing to attract support.

Three winning 3-y-o’s, four winning 4-y-o’s and two horses aged 5+ in the last nine years, with only last years winner carrying less than 9st to victory. Market tells me we need a horse in the front four on the tissue as the gates open as six of those nine winners were so I’m thinking, horses aged three or four, carrying 9st or more, and in the front four on the tissue.

  • ABLE KANE
  • AL SAARIYAH
  • RAATEA

Stake Management would appear to have this covered very nicely.

UPDATE: 

NEWMARKET 6-38

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

* – HOT SUMMER….-10
* – GREY FOX….-15
* – GLOBAL HOPE….-15
* – GLENN COCO….-23
MOTAWAAFEQ….-24 – NR
3 – MISS SCALETTA….-26
MASKED IDENTITY….-40 – NR
(OMM) – GODDESS OF FIRE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS OMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

This race has started falling apart since I finalised my figures but to be quite honest, we have a 3-y-o trading just 7/4 off the back of just three runs, one of which she won. Impossible to rate accurately as you would expect and with four of the last nine winners being of that age group, and three of the last five favourites winning this race, it’s fair to say she will be competitive!

Favourites have actually won or finished second in five of the last six of these and when the favourite wasn’t winning, it was the second favourite….today, right now, that horse is GREY FOX.

I might just dutch that pairing in a race that rated poorly.

UPDATE: 

NEWMARKET 7-08

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

ATAVIQUE….-22 – NR
3* – SIENNA BREEZE….-22
(MMM), 3 – CUBAN CIGAR….-26
(OMM), * – CONTINGENCY FEE….-28

3* – CLASSY DAME….-29
MY TARGET….-30
TORBELLINO….-33
* – CATCH MY BREATH….-36
3 – ARTHUR’S ANGEL….-37
HOTSPUR HARRY….-40
H – EVENTFUL….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

My top rated has been pulled out….great start!

Five of the last nine winners of this have been 3-y-o’s. All nine winners carried 9st or more. 

Seven of the last eight winners were in the front three on the tissue and as I type they are:

  • SIENNA BREEZE
  • CONTINGENCY FEE
  • CLASSY DAME

Right now I’m thinking they will make up my dutch but I’m going to keep watching CUBAN CIGAR in those markets. 

UPDATE: 

THIRSK 6-53

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

* – SOUL SEEKER….+11 – NR
* – JAMES WATT….-13
* – PRINCESS POWER….-14
* – COWBOY SOLDIER….-19
* – LOMU….-19
H – SECRETINTHEPARK….-40
WRENTHORPE….-40 – NR
THE BELL CONDUCTOR….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

The last nine running’s of this have gone to horses aged 4, 5 or 6 in eight of them. with seven of those nine winners carrying between 8st 7lb and 9st 6lb.

The last two favourites have taken this race and in seven of the nine races the favourite has finished in the first three home. 

The front two on the tissue are horses aged four and five, but for SOUL SEEKER to make it three winning favourites on the bounce, he will have to become the fist horse to carry more than 9st 7lb. The best fit from a trends point of view is PRINCESS POWER but I’m happy to work my figures as advised by Stake Management.

UPDATE: MY TOP RATED IS NOW A NON-RUNNER. JAMES WATT IS VERY WEAK ON THE TISSUE 6/1 > 9/1…MY ONLY PLAY HERE WILL BE PRINCESS POWER.

THIRSK 7-53

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

3 – TURANDOT….+8
(MMM), * – CHALLET….+2
* – SAISONS D’OR….-1
W, * – PARYS MOUNTAIN….-17
3* – CANDESCENCE….-24
* – HOUSE OF KINGS….-26
* – IRV….-30
* – GLENGARRY….-3
SWISS KNIGHT….-40 – NR
MOSSBAWN….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREESCRIBBLINGS:

This race also has nine previous running’s, that has seen just one winning 3-y-o, six winning 4-y-o’s and 2 x 5+ year olds winning it. Four year olds have won four of the last seven and a David O’Meara runner has won three of the last six running’s….he trains my top rated horse.

Seven of the nine winners have carried in excess of 9st 7lb and only two winners have been outside the front five on the tissue, with four winning favourites, including three of the last five winners going off the jolly.

Right now rated horses 1, 2 and 5 look best of my top six rated horses and the money for CHALLET very interesting….strong and persistent, too. They will most likely be the horses working for me.

UPDATE:

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