Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Newmarket, Newbury, Doncaster, Ripon and Bath – 14/08/21

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WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

NEWMARKET 2-35

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M-H-L

* – MY STYLE….+13
(OMM), T* – DEVIL’S ANGEL….+10
T$* – WENTWORTH FALLS….+10
$* – CASE KEY….+8
GREY GALLEON….-4
T* – GEORGE BOWEN….-8
T$* – BRIAN THE SNAIL….-9
(OMM), 3* – MITROSONFIRE….-10
$ – JACKSTAR….-40
3 – CAHORS….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS OMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

Six of the last 10 running’s of this event have gone to horses aged four or five and eight of those 10 races went to horses aged 4+….the oldest winner thus far was the seven year old MEDICI TIME in 2012.

Weight ranges are a bit all over the place, the last two winners carried less than 9st, the five before that more than 9st and it was 2-2 below and above prior but I’m thinking, as eight of the last 10 winners sat top six on the tissue, we can eliminate the pair carting less than 9st, as they are currently 22/1 and 33/1….9th and 10th in the market right now..

Stake Management might well be the best call here although I myself will not have WENTWORTH FALLS near my play as he’s a 9-y-o that has gone 10/1 > 14/1 overnight and I’m preferring the CD credentials of MY STYLE, DEVIL’S ANGEL and CASE KEY. Two of those are trained by Michael Appleby and Eve Johnson Houghton. They have trained three of the last four winners and also had placed horses from just five entries and two entries respectively. Trends suggest a big run from my top rated….and I actually believe the winner is in my top two rated….but we shall see!

UPDATE: 

NEWMARKET 3-05

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M-H-L

* – STREAMLINE….+4
* – OPEN WIDE….+4
T$ – MERAAS….-1
PREMIER POWER….-5
3$* – FIRST FOLIO….-5
$ – GREAT AMBASSADOR….-14
T* – RATHBONE….-20
3$ – JUMBY….-24
SUNSET BREEZE….-32
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD….-32

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS:

NO PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE

UPDATE: 

NEWMARKET 3-40

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

* – FIRE FIGHTING….+12
3 – TOP BRASS….-5
T* – DONTASKMEAGAIN….-6
3H – BANDINELLI….-24
FRONTISPIECE….-40
PLEDGE OF HONOUR….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

Seven of the last 10 running’s of this have gone to 3-y-o’s with nine of the 10 winners carrying 9st or more. and eight winners in the front two on the tissue.

Right now the two 3-y-o’s are the favourite and second favourite, with the highest rated of them trained by the winner of this last year (with a 3-y-o), John Gosden.

My top rated is definitely “skewed” and I’ll just dutch rated horses 2 & 4.

UPDATE: 

NEWBURY 2-55

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

AIYAALL….+8
3 – SUNSET BAY….-2
* – SILVER SAMURAI….-10
DIOCLES OF ROME….-21
MAGICAL WISH….-32
(BRF/OMM), W2, 3 – ARATUS….-40
STARSHIBA….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS BRF/OMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

Eight of the last 10 running’s of this race have gone to horses sitting top four on the tissue and we’ve had 2 x 3-y-o’s, 3 x 4-y-o’s and 5 x horses aged 5+ winning it. As everything in here today carries 9st or more, that trend is irrelevant 

Clive Cox trains the very lightly raced 3-y-o that is currently trading favourite….three runs, no way of producing an accurate figure….and Haggas trains my top rated. I mention this because between them, they’ve trained thrtee of the last four winners.

I’m pretty certain the winner of this comes from Rated horses 1, 2, 6….I’d drop SILVER SAMURAI even if I played to Stake Management 11/1 > 16/1 overnight.

UPDATE: 

NEWBURY 4-00

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

3* – CAMELOT TALES….+9
3* – TAWAAREQ….-20
ARCTIC VEGA….-40
WAR LEADER….-40
3 – BILL PEYTO….-40
GOLD ARCH….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

Eight previous running’s of this race and it’s top three on the tissue we want onside….six of those eight races have gone to horses favourite, or third favourite…three a piece.

Three year olds simply dominate this race, five of the last seven winners (three of the last four), were 3-y-o’s, all three winning favourites were 3-y-o’s, I have a 3-y-o sitting clear top rated, trading favourite (7/4 and it’s then 3/1 bar), and if my figures and trends mean anything here, the top rated wins it.

UPDATE: 

DONCASTER 1-22

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – H-L-M

$ – DANIEL DERONDA….+11
(OMM), * – HARBOUR VISION….+11
$* – OSO RAPIDO….+1
(OMM), 3* – TAMASKA….-1
$ – NAT LOVE….-8
* – ATHOLBLAIR BOY….-10
* – ROYAL PROSPECT….-13
(OMM), * – HAJJAM….-15
* – HARVEST DAY….-22
3 – ENDERMAN….-26
$ – MUSAHABA….-39
T – GOWANBUSTER….-39

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS HIGHEST RATED OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

This race has been divided several times in recent years so trends are a little bonker as I’ve about 14 races to work with, all run in the last decade.

12 winners in the last 10 years (told this was bonkers), were in the front three on the tissue and we’ve seen four winning favourites in the last three years…..this really is going to mess with your mind!

In the last 10 years we’ve seen nine 4-y-o’s win, four x 3-y-o’s and 3 horses aged 5+. I’m thinking we run with four and five year olds as they’ve taken seven of these races.

14 winners in the last 10 years have carried 9st or more.

David O’Meara trained last years winner and from four entires he has enjoyed that one winner and two placing.

He saddles my top rated, and TAMASKA, who has been a mover overnight….now this next bit is going to have you reaching for Panadol….four of the last five favourites, in the last three years, have won this race. 

Do you know, I think I’,m just going to let Stake Management take care of this.

UPDATE: 

DONCASTER 3-00

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

3* – MOTAWAAJED….+10
* – EQUIANO SPRINGS….-12
T* – DANCE FEVER….-15
W2, H* – REPARTEE….-16
* – ADMIRALITY….-19
T* – VOLATILE ANALYST….-22
3 – INVEIGLE….-40
DOCUMENTING….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

Nothing like as complicated. Although 3-y-o’s have won two of the last nine runnings, they were actually the first two editions in 2012 and 2013….nothing since and only thtee of them placing. I’m therefore against my top rated and INVEIGLE, despite them being the current second and third favourites. 

It is another race in which weight ranges are all over the place with three of the last four winners all carrying less than 9st but the four previous, and the 18/1 winner last year, all carrying 9st of more. 

Market position….another trend peg you’d not be looking to hang a hat on. Five of the nine winners were in the frront three on the tissue but three of the last four were 6th, 6th and 8th best in the market.

Funny little race this. Despite plenty to work with, we have no consistency. 

I’m thinking it’ll be a straight win DANCE FEVER at this end. EQUIANO SPRINGS is 16/1 > 25/1 this morning, my top rated is a 3-y-o who is miles clear on my figures and definitely Stake Management material. 

UPDATE: 

RIPON 3-10

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – H-L-M

* – I AM A DREAMER….+15
$* – BOSSIPOP….+11
H$* – TROUBADOUR….+11
$* – TRUE BLUE MOON….+10
3* – OUT THE HAT….+9
* – CITRON MAJOR….+9
W, * – MARKS CHOICE….+9
* – FORTAMOUR….+9
* – FLYING PURSUIT….+9
3H* – GIORGIO VASARI….+9 – NR
3 – COOPERATION….+7
3H$* – MACHO PRIDE….-1
JOHN KIRKUP….-4
* – GABRIAL THE DEVIL….-7
$* – GHATHANFAR….-8
$* – MYTHMAKER….-15
DANZAN….-22
VENTURA EXPRESS….-22
H – TRUE MASON….-33
3T$ – EHRMANN….-36 – NR

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

Very few 3-y-o’s try to win this, just eight representing that age group in the eight running’s. Only one has placed. Two have come out since my first Newsletter went out….connections have seen the signs!

The age groups to work with are four and five year olds as they have taken six of those eight running’s. I’ll profile both this and the next race:

  • TROUBADOR
  • GHATHANFAR
  • FORTAMOUR
  • VENTURA EXPRESS
  • I AM A DREAMER
  • MARK’S CHOICE
  • TRUE MASON

Everything carries more than 9st so we’ll go straight to market. Six of those eight winners were in the front six on the tissue and from that first list we can take:

  • GHATHANFAR
  • FORTAMOUR
  • I AM A DREAMER

I’m loving the fact my top Rated horse is in that trio!

I always prefer working with Profiling when it comes to these big field handicaps and I’ll go dutch the three Profiling selections.

For those looking for one to play from that trio, I can see only two previous winners drawn lower than 13 and the only qualifier on that score would be GHATHANFAR…20/80.

UPDATE: 

RIPON 3-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS –

LAMPANG….+14
$* – SOUL SEEKER….+13
* – BRAD THE BRIEF….+12
* – MUSCIKA….+11
* – MOKAATIL….+11
$* – GOLDEN APOLLO….+10
* – MR WAGYU….+10
H$* – JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE….+9
* – STAXTON….+9
$ – GALE FORCE MAYA….+8
* – EMBOUR….+8
* – MANIGORDO….+8
* – MUSIC SOCIETY….+4
$* – ABATE….+3
LINCOLN PARK….+/-0
* – MR LUPTON….-2
* – BOARDMAN….-8
T$ – SOLDIER’S MINUTE….-24
$ – INTRINSIC BOND….-26
ILLUSIONIST….-36

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS:

Five year olds have won the last four running’s of this, and six of the last nine so let’s take horses aged 5+ to work with….makes sense to me.

  • MR LUPTON
  • MR WAGYU
  • BOARDMAN
  • SOLDIER’S MINUTE
  • STAXTON
  • GALE FORCE MAYA
  • JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE
  • MUSIC SOCIETY
  • MOKAATIL
  • LINCOLN PARK
  • EMBOUR
  • MUSCIKA
  • GOLDEN APOLLO
  • ABATE

I do not want horses carrying less than 8st 12lb, or more than 9st 7lb in my next shortlist as they make up eight of the 10 winners I’m working with:

  • MR WAGYU
  • BOARDMAN
  • SOLDIER’S MINUTE
  • STAXTON
  • GALE FORCE MAYA
  • JUSTANOTHERBOTTLE

Down to six.

Market position next. Seven of the last 10 winners were in the front five on the tissue and we’ve actually had five winning favourites in the last eight years:

  • MR WAGYU
  • SOLDIER’S MINUTE
  • STAXTON
  • GALE FORCE MAYA

Down to four.

I’m going to remove horse with a draw lower than 10 as only three of the last 10 winners have managed to pull that off:

  • MR WAGYU
  • SOLDIER’S MINUTE
  • GALE FORCE MAYA

A nice three horse dutch with arguably the most improved handicapper in the country running for us, MR WAGYU

He would be my solo play here as he’s the highest rated of the three – 20/80 – and he’s the only CD winner of thast three, too.

UPDATE: 

RIPON 4-20

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

H* – SAFRAN….+12
* – COPPER AND FIVE….+11
* – GARDEN OASIS….+9
T – RAINS OF CASTAMERE….-10
POET’S DAWN….-19
T – ENIGMATIC….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

No 3-y-o’s to bother us here and it’s 6-4 to horse aged 5+ over the last decade. No point worrying about weight, they all cart over 9st.

Market position….well, with just six runners, it’s pretty pointless telling you that the winner has been top four on the tissue in seven of the 10, with the last five in that market position, too.

I’ve three clear on my figures, I’ve an O’Mear horse top rated and he’s had 17 runners in those 10 races, won four, placed with another four so I’ll just pop a dutch on….top three.

UPDATE: 

BATH 7-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

* – KEEPER’S CHOICE….+13
3 – COMMONSENSICAL….+8
(MMM), T* – OVERWRITE….-4
MYKONOS ST JOHN….-16
3* – SUBTLE BEAUTY….-37
MABRE….-38
3 – MORAWETH….-40
SIGLO SIX….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE

SCRIBBLINGS:

NO PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE

UPDATE: 

BATH 8-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

* – AIRSHOW….+15
DOC SPORTELLO….+8
* – SARAH’S VERSE….+8
(MMM), T* – MR MILLARCKY….-6
* – GILT EDGE….-7
BLUEBELL TIME….-14
H – KENDERGARTEN KOP….-28
OUTRAGE….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS MMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

ONLY TWO PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE

UPDATE:

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