Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Hamilton – 17/08/21

0

WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

TODAY’S RATINGS

HAMILTON 1-45

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – H-M-L

(OMM), 3TH – FIGHTER PILOT….+12
(OMM), T* – BIG LES….+12

T* – KAPONO….+8
3 – SOAPYS SISTER….+8 – NR
T$* – DARK DEFENDER….+4
(OMM), T* – EY UP ITS MICK….+1
$ – PEARL OF QATAR….+1
3, H – WHITTLE LE WOODS….-1
TH – DREAM TOGETHER….-8
(OMM), $ – CALL ME GINGER….-16
T – SPANISH ANGEL….-24

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS:

JUST THREE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE AND NO TRENDS TO WORK WITH

UPDATE: 

HAMILTON 2-15

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – M-L/H

* – ROSE BANDIT….+9
T$* – SHESADABBER….+9
T – WADE’S MAGIC….+9
T$* – DAPPER MAN….+8
(OMM), T – QUANAH….-11
(MMM) – SOUND OF IONA….-21
3T$ – ROMAN ENCOUNTER….-23
T – STRONSAY….-24
T – MELODY KING….-31
3$ – IRIS DANCER….-34

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE PLUS OMM

SCRIBBLINGS:

No 3-y-o winner of this in the last 10 years and 17 have tried. Seven of those 10 winners were aged four, or five. Only one winner has carried less than 9st and that winner had 8st 11lb on top of it so we’ll trust to the weight carriers.

Market position of the last 10 winners reads: 1, 1, 1, 5, 3, 1, 3, 1, 2….front three on the tissue looks a “must” then.

Right now they would be:

  • ROSE BANDIT
  • WADE’S MAGIC
  • SOUND OF IONA

They sit in my top six but ROSE BANDIT has been very easy to back this morning 10/3 > 5/1, whilst SOUND OF IONA is now seeing support (very unlucky loser last time out), 

The two 3-y-o’s have been dealt a good draw but stats suggest it is watsed on them. 

I’m very much inclined to trust the markets above all else today and I’m looking at rated horses 3, 5, 6 for my own dutch. 

UPDATE:

HAMILTON 3-25

PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – 

T* – JUST HISS….+10
3 – RICH DREAM….+5
PLATINUMCARD….+2
* – TRICORN….-3
* – HOWZER BLACK….-7
* – AMAYSMONT….-11
T* – WHERE’S JEFF….-11
(OMM), 3T* – LEGENDARY DAY….-24
W, * – BRINGITONBORIS….-25
T – DREAM WITH ME….-40 – NR
3T – FREAK OUT….-40
BATTLE OF WILLS….-40

STAKE MANAGEMENT APPLIED: DUTCH – TOP THREE 

SCRIBBLINGS:

This was last run in 2018 and is eight years old. The last two running’s went to 3-y-o’s, and four of the last six have done so.

When you consider only 19 have that age group have tried to win this, the fact they have produced four winners and five placed horses speaks in their favour.

We have a wide range of wierhgt bands successful so I’ll not attempt to usilise those but, Market Position of thos eight winners being 4, 1, 3, 3, 2, 6, 3, 2 again suggests we want front three onside. Right now LEGENDARY DAY, who is being heavily supported, and RICH DREAM, now also seeing support 11/2 > 4/1….and both being 3-y-o’s, I’ll just dutch that pair.

UPDATE: 

close
The "TWOS NEWS" Newsletter!

Hi there 👋
Thanks for dropping in!

Sign up to receive "TWOS NEWS" in your inbox, every day!

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleThree off the tee, at the Liberty!
Next articleThe Post Racing Market Movers – 17/08/21