Today’s Ratings and Scribblings for Kempton and Sedgefield – 17/10/21

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It is a nice quiet day today, just two rated races and OMM’s sit second top in both of them. I’ve added something I want to trial that indicates yards in form. It is called an RTF figure and this tells us the percentage of horses from each yard, that are running to their form right now. The higher the percentage, the better, Although at this stage of the season they are most likely skewed as yards, especially the bigger yards, have not got theirs going yet. However, they may indicate now that those smaller yards that have theirs “match fit” and looking to take home some early prize money, can be trusted.

Very much experimental right now and hopefully, going forward and allied to everything esle, we can narrow our selections down to suitable numbers. 

If it proves nothing, we look for something else.
Have a great day and best of luck!

WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS.

KEMPTON 2-40

* – MERCIAN PRINCE (RTF 44%)….+15
(OMM), * – GOA LIL (RTF 43%)….+7
* – FAIRWAY FREDDY (RTF 33%)….+2
T* – MASTER WORK (RTF 58%)….-11
T* – TIKKINTHEBOX (RTF 75%)….-35
* – VERSATILITY (NO RTF)….-37

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – MERCIAN PRINCE
EXOTICS – MERCIAN PRINCE, GOA LIL, FAIRWAY FREDDY
ONE TO LAY – NONE

SCRIBBLINGS

ONLY FIVE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

SEDGEFIELD 4-40

* – BEACH BREAK (RTF 66%)….+9
(OMM), T* – THE VOLLAN (RTF 13%)….+5
W2, * – GORDON’S JET (RTF 32%)….+2
* – COUNTISTER (RTF 55%)….-1
* – QUEST FOR LIFE (RTF 25%)….-5
* – SAINT ARVANS (RTF 0%)….-35

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – BEACH BREAK
EXOTICS – BEACH BREAK, THE VOLLAN, GORDON’S JET
ONE TO LAY – NONE

SCRIBBLINGS

ONLY FOUR PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

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