It may still be a case of “close but no cigar” having failed to find the winner last week, but we still made a profit with 16/1 chance Abraham Ancer and 70/1 shot Carlos Ortiz both hitting the places at decent prices, suggesting a profit should have been made with just the one out of three failing to get involved.
This week we move on to Texas for the Houston Open, and funnily enough, Carlos Ortiz won this last year with a score of thirteen under par. Played at the Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston (unsurprisingly) we have a standard par 72 course, measuring in at 7,432 yards, and $7,500,000 up for grabs. Its long, its flat, and it offers precious few hazards by modern standards with the first cut of rough pretty generous and very few bunkers to deal with. Sadly that makes my life more difficult not easier, with a longer list of players to go through looking for ”the one”, and very few if any that can be sensibly ruled out – but we’ll have a go regardless.
Selections with reasoning:
***NOTE*** Different bookmakers are offering different each way terms so do shop around – and make sure you only partake non-runner no bet – covid has seen last minute withdrawals all season and we don’t want to be throwing money away. DO shop around for best odds and best place terms and any special offers with the bookmakers to steal the most value, and DO check the exchanges for bigger prices – I can’t put them on here as cast in stone as they differ by the minute and Betfair prices quoted are as indicators only and were correct at the time of writing.
1pt each way Sam Burns 14/1 William Hill top 8 places (16.0 Betfair)
I really don’t like the price that much but there are so many pointers to his chances that what can you do? He plays this course well enough and was leading after the first three rounds last year, and as he currently sits in the number one spot on the Fed Ex rankings list, we know he arrives here in great form. His recent form includes a win in the Sanderson Farms Championship and a fifth in the CJ Cup, and incredibly, at the age of just 25, he has already won close to $10,000,000 in prize money alone – nice work if you can get it. Personally, I see him as a bit of an unsung hero who is beginning to live up to his own lofty aspirations (he can be his won worse critic), and with confidence to go with his ability, we can all expect further wins this season as he progresses through the golfing ranks.
1pt Each Way Matthew Wolff 33/1 William Hill top 8 places (42.0 Betfair)
Two more at bigger prices now and I am expecting a bold showing from Matthew Wolff here despite his outlandish odds. If ever there has been a hard luck story in this sport (recently at least), have a closer look at his play at Mayakoba last week. An amazing opening round of 61 was followed by a highly respectable 68 before the wheels fell off with a 74 in the third round. What I really like was the attitude he then showed to storm back in to contention with a 65 on the fourth day to finish third – and no doubt have nightmares about what could have been. A former Amateur Number One he is yet to win on the tour (which is an issue I suppose), but he has managed to add more finesse to his game to ago with his big hitter reputation, and 33/1 is just too big a price for me to resist.
1pt each way Tyrrell Hatton 33/1 William Hill top 8 places (36.0 Betfair)
One of my favourite players (and that brings in a spot of bias I suppose), but I am expecting more from him here after he came home in seventh last year on his first look at the course. With a win and two seconds in Europe this year including a runners-up spot in the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, his ability around these greens may be the key, and that is his stand-out statistic. Number one for strokes gained around the green in the last six months, that may well be where this is won or lost in my eyes, and as the price for top European is far too stingy (if sorely tempting), I will just back him each way at the price and keep my fingers crossed until Sunday evening.