Today’s Ratings for Kempton, Warwick and Wetherby – 15/01/22

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WHAT THE ICONS NEXT TO A RATED HORSES NAME MEAN

  1. * – SIGNIFIES A HORSE HAVING WON ON THE GOING AS DESCRIBED WHEN RACE RATED
  2. $ – INDICATES THE BEST DRAWN HORSES
  3. OMM – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET MOVER
  4. BRF – BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE
  5. T – HORSE HAVING TRAVELLED A ROUND TRIP OF 300 MILES OR MORE TO RACE
  6. H – INDICATES THE HORSE IS WEARING FIRST TIME HEADGEAR (BLINKERS, HOOD, ETC)
  7. W – RACING FIRST TIME SINCE A WIND OPERATION
  8. W2 – SECOND RUN SINCE WIND SURGERY
  9. 3 – INDICATES 3-Y-O IN ALL AGED HANDICAP
  10. D – INDICATES OVERNIGHT MARKET DRIFTER

STAKE MANAGEMENT

  1. DUTCH TOP THREE RATED
  2. IF WE HAVE A NON-RUNNER IN MY TOP THREE, EMPLOY NATURAL PROGRESSION
  3. IF WE HAVE AN OMM OUTSIDE MY TOP THREE, CONSIDER A DUTCH FOUR
  4. IF WE HAVE A BOTTOM RATED FAVOURITE CONSIDER INCLUDING IN A DUTCH FOUR
  5. ADJUST STAKING LEVELS WHEN THE %AGE CHANCE OF SUCCESS IS INCREASED BY VIRTUE OF THE MARKET PRICES OF THOSE AT THE HEAD OF MY RATINGS (SEE RATED RACE GRADINGS BELOW)

RATED RACE GRADING

The figure in brackets, next to the race time, indicates the staking level you should consider based on the probability of success. You will very rarely see anything above three.

  1. Keep staking as low as a snakes belly.
  2. Might be a snake but let’s go lizard.
  3. Better, feeling confident
  4. Now you’re talking!
  5. W.H.M.S.R.S (Acronym = When Harry Met Sally Restaurant Scene

The Gradings will be applied in the second Newsletter.
 

KEMPTON 1-32

* – FALCO BLITZ….+11 (36%)
* – LOCKS CORNER….+9 (50%)
* – TWENTY TWENTY….-25 (60%)
* – FANZIO….-27 (38%)
(D), * – CHAMPAGNE COURT….-29 (75%)
* – KAP AUTEUIL….-38 (60%)
(OMM) – FOXBORO….-40 (67%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH PLUS OMM

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – FALCO BLITZ
EXOTICS – FALCO BLITZ, LOCKS CORNER, TWENTY TWENTY
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

KEMPTON 2-40

(D), * – MARIE’S ROCK….+12 (36%)
* – QUINTA DO MAR….+11 (25%)
(OMM), * – UP FOR PAROL….+9 (40%)
* – MONTE CRISTO….+9 (36%)
* – GELINO BELLO….+8 (63%)
* – CALL ME LORD….+8 (36%)
* – COMMANCHE RED….+5 (47%)
H* – CARYS’ COMMODITY….+5 (50%)
TH* – BOLD PLAN….+3 (30%)
* – CABOT CLIFFS….-9 (45%)
T* – DANS LE VENT….-12 (30%)
* – HIGHWAY ONE O TWO….-21 (47%)
ON MY COMMAND….-24 (45%)
H* – WILLIAM HENRY….-27 (43%)
(OMM), * – GREEN BOOK….-35 (43%)
T* – FOSTER’SISLAND….-35 (29%)
(D), T – EARTH LORD….-36 (38%)
COBBLERS DREAM….-40 (40%)
CH’TIBELLO….-40 (45%)
H – PRESS YOUR LUCK….-40 (47%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH PLUS OMM

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – MARIE’S ROCK
EXOTICS – MARIE’S ROCK, QUINTA DO MAR, UP FOR PAROL
ONE TO LAY – 

PROFILING

We are looking, primarily, for horses aged 6-7-8 here, as they have taken eight of the last 10 running’s of this, four of those eight going to six year olds. Last year we had a nine year old win this @ 66/1 but that was simply an anomaly. My first shortlist comprises of:

  • MARIE’S ROCK
  • MONTE CRISTO
  • GELINO BELLO
  • QUINTA DO MAR
  • CARYS’ COMMODITY
  • UP FOR PAROL
  • EARTH LORD
  • HIGHWAY ONE O TWO
  • PRESS YOUR LUCK
  • COBBLERS DREAM
  • FOSTER’SISLAND
  • ON MY COMMAND

Next we look at weight ranges and I’m feeling we need to be working with horses carrying 10st 10lb or more, but no more than 11st 7lb, so from that first list I’ll take:

  • MONTE CRISTO
  • GELINO BELLO
  • QUINTA DO MAR
  • CARYS’ COMMODITY
  • UP FOR PAROL
  • EARTH LORD
  • HIGHWAY ONE O TWO
  • PRESS YOUR LUCK
  • COBBLERS DREAM

Down to nine and my next port of call is the market. As competitive a race as this always looks on paper, it’s a simple fact that eight of the last 10 winners went off a single figure price and so I’ll cull those from that second list, trading bigger than 9/1:

  • GELINO BELLO
  • UP FOR PAROL

Two left and both figure in my top five rated horses, one a “mover” overnight. The first named is trained by Paul Nicholls, who has sent 11 for this race in the last decade, won with two, placed with three others. I expect GELINO BELLO to run a big race based on trends.

UP FOR PAROL sits third best on my numbers, has seen support overnight and this all bolsters confidence in my numbers. 

GREEN BOOK looks a “plot”. Only a five year old and impossible to rate having only raced four times over hurdles, having raced only on the flat in France. The money has come overnight and it now trades favourite. 

The winner of this race has been located in the front three on the tissue in eight of the last 10 running’s and taking everything into account….Ratings, Profiling, OMM’s and Drfiters, I’m inclined to dutch:

  • UP FOR PAROL
  • GELINO BELLO
  • GREEN BOOK

KEMPTON 3-15

T* – MAC TOTTIE….+8 (45%)
H – DOUBLE SHUFFLE….-6 (33%)
T* – SMARTY WILD….-12 (38%)
CARIBEAN BOY….-25 (36%)
(D), * – WISHING AND HOPING….-35 (57%)
T – KITTY’S LIGHT….-40 (38%)
(D), T – STRICTLYADANCER….-40 (38%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – MAC TOTTIE
EXOTICS – MAC TOTTIE, DOUBLE SHUFFLE, SMARTY WILD
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

KEMPTON 3-50

(D), * – MENGLI KHAN….+8 (36%)
W – FIRST STREET….+4 (36%)
* – LORD BADDESLEY….-7 (47%)
LUCKY ONE….-24 (45%)
COURTANDBOULD….-29 (58%)
GRISBI DE BERCE….-32 (39%)
T – EARTH COMPANY….-36 (38%)
* – MANUCCI….-40 (60%)
SOFIA’S ROCK….-40 (45%)
ROYAUME UNI….-40 (60%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – MENGLI KHAN
EXOTICS – MENGLI KHAN, FIRST STREET, LORD BADDESLEY
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

Trying to apply a Rating to EARTH COMPANY is impossible because the critter has only raced six times in its life, and only three times over hurdles. 

What trends are telling me is, we need to be working with horses aged five or six….they have won nine of the last 10 of these. You most certainly need to be carrying 11st or more…the last four winners have done so, as have seven of the last 10.

The winner has been front two on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s, and currently they are:

  • EARTH COMPANY
  • ROYAUME UNI

The second named of those has been pulled out of it’s last two races due to soft ground and with today’s ground being soft, and his only win over hurdles to date coming on genuine good ground, and going left handed on a sharp track, I cannot see today’s race playing to its strengths.

Philip Hobbs trains EARTH COMPANY. He has sent four for this in the last decade, won with one, placed with another. He comes across as the most likely winner.

With my top rated a massive overnight drifter I’ll be dutching:

  • FIRST STREET
  • LORD BADDESLEY
  • EARTH COMPANY


WETHERBY 2-47

HAAFAPIECE….+15 (50%)
* – SHANNON BRIDGE….+8 (45%)
SOLO SAXOPHONE….-6 (20%)
* – BOSS MAN FRED….-15 (45%)
* – GLENTRUAN….-18 (100%)
T* – BALLYANDY….-24 (24%)
FRIARY ROCK….-24 (40%)
* – BENSON….-27 (57%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – HAAFAPIECE
EXOTICS – HAAFAPIECE, SHANNON BRIDGE, SOLO SAXOPHONE
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

NINE PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

WETHERBY 3-23

TH – ONCHAN….+11 (24%)
* – GLITTERING LOVE….+3 (43%)
* – MOROZOV COCKTAIL….+1 (14%)
W2, T – PARTY FUZZ….+1 (27%)
FRIMEUR DE LANCRAY….-40 (33%)
RADDLE AND HUM….-40 (29%)
BALLYRATH….-40 (57%)
T – CAMP BELAN….-40 (67%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – ONCHAN
EXOTICS – ONCHAN, GLITTERING LOVE, MOROZOV COCKTAIL
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

TWO PREVIOUS RUNNING’S OF THIS RACE – NO TRENDS

WARWICK 3-00

(D), H – NOTACHANCE….+11 (39%)
GRACE A VOUS ENKI….+11 (63%)
* – PADLEYOUROWNCANOE….+10 (45%)
* – ECLAIR SURF….+4 (47%)
* – CHIRICO VALLIS….-3 (37%)
* – GERICAULT ROQUE….-5 (31%)
* – JERRYSBACK….-7 (38%)
W, * – THE HOLLOW GINGE….-13 (24%)
T* – GAME LINE….-14 (45%)
(OMM) – NO REMATCH….-17 (30%)
* – ACHILLE….-20 (43%)
* – HEAD TO THE STARS….-32 (50%)
* – MINELLA ENCORE….-40 (57%)
T* – CORACH RAMBLER….-40 (67%)
CAPTAIN TOMMY….-40 (50%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH PLUS OMM

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – NOTACHANCE
EXOTICS – NOTACHANCE, GRACE A VOUS ENKI, PADLEYOUROWNCANOE
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

I’d say this is difficult to apply trends to as we’ve a wide spread of age groups winning it, an even wider spread of weight carrying perfomances and whilst we have had only one winner priced longer than 14/1 in the last 10 years, the position of the winner in the market these last 10 years has been: 8, 2, 5, 4, 0, 8, 7, 6, 2, 1

The more dominant age groups appear to be horses aged 7, 8, or 9….but I most certainly cannot apply a weight range so adding the “14/1 or shorter” criteria I’ve got:

  • CORACH RAMBLER
  • NO REMATCH
  • PADLEYOUROWNCANOE
  • ECLAIR SURF
  • NOTACHANCE

The last named won this last year and became the first winning favourite in a decade to do it. He also became the first in those 10 years to arrive for this race having won last time out.

I’ve taken another look at weight ranges and whilst I’d not be at all certain based on what I see, my guts say do not go with anything carrying more than 10st 13lb. Two of the last four winners did carry more than 11st but, six of the last nine, did not.

If the runes (such as they are), speak true, the most likely winner is the OMM, NO REMATCH.

I’ll just work as per Stake Management

WARWICK 3-35

* – RIGGS….+10 (45%)
(OMM), * – ALAPHILIPPE….+8 (58%)
* – SPORTING JOHN….-15 (38%)
* – THIRD WIND….-20 (100%)
T* – THE JAM MAN….-23 (67%)
T* – SIRE DU BERLAIS….-29 (40%)
KEEPER HILL….-31 (33%)

STAKE MANAGEMENT

TOP THREE DUTCH

OLD SCHOOL

20/80 – RIGGS
EXOTICS – RIGGS, ALAPHILIPPE, SPORTING JOHN
ONE TO LAY – 

SCRIBBLINGS

My top four here are top four on the tissue, I have an OMM sitting second favourite, the four bottom rated horses are all drifting and the winner of this race been front four on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s, and the last four. The race has gone to the second favourite in four of the last eight years and no favourite has won in that 10 year time span. 

Wer have a pair of Irish trained horses, THE JAM MAN and SIRE DU BERLAIS who are messing with my mind but if they have pretnsions to winning the final of this series at Cheltenham, then they do not want to be winning here, merely qualifying to run. 

I’m again simply working with my Stake Management and if all the pointers and clues are correct, the most likely winner is ALAPHILIPPE, who represents the yard that won this race last year with IMPERIAL ALCAZAR….then ran in the final, went off just 11/2 and got slamdunked….16th of the 22 runners….like I say, if you want to be winning the final of this series, you do not leave that prize behind by winning a qualifier. 

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