Low sun, frozen tracks, 12 races this weekend discussed and all the winners free to access!

0
The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Low sun, frozen tracks, 12 races this weekend discussed and all the winners free to access!
/

Lots discussed this week and it’s an hour and 10 minutes of your life you’ll never get back but well worth a listen. Sean and Ron discuss 12 races across Friday and Saturday and mention the dodgepot acca…and believe me, there are dodgepots all over the place on Saturday!

Below is the text of Ron’s side of those race discussions, with his and Sean’s selections.

PODCAST 27/01/22

FRIDAY

DONCASTER 1-50

Only three previous running’s of this race and impossible for me to find a selection using the runes, because I have no runes!

I’m not seeing a bet here, not least because we have Irish challengers, an Ian Williams trained hurdling debutante, who is fit off the flat having run second at Southwell recently and the trainer in form, running a 46% RTF%age figure, with three winners from his last 13 runners.

However, if there is a trainer in better form with hurdlers this season than Milton Harris, I’d be surprised. He’s running around a 24% strike rate with them this term and that’s stunning. He trains previous course and distance winner GALAH in this and is running a superb 62% RTF%age figure right now.

He’s brilliantly named being by Australia went off the even money favourite to win his race here on December 29th and beat TIKI FIRE, who takes him on again tomorrow, easily enough.

I expect him to run as well as any of the trainer’s runners have been and if I had to pick one to punt, it would be him. I’ll say 20/80 GALAH, for Podcast purposes….but I personally will not be betting.

RON – GALAH – 20/80

SEAN – LA RENOMMEE – E.W. or 20/80

HUNTINGDON 2-35

Good little race this. Only five going to post which is a pity and it was the two that do not turn up that interested me most, EMMAS JOY, because that one is trained by Skelton and he has won this with the two he has sent for it, and QUICK WAVE, trained by Venetia Williams, who would have probably gone off favourite being rated just 1lb lower than VIENNA COURT, who will now probably go off favourite, and was set to receive 4lb. Look out for that one running in the Grand National Trial at Haydock on the 19th of February.

On official ratings this now looks a formality for VIENNA COURT, who runs off level weights with MASKADA, and is rated 8lb superior to that horse. She is rated 10lb superior to PINK LEGEND and yet only gives that mare 2lb, and both GALICE MACALO and SCHIAPARANNIE receive 4lb but are rated 15lb and 21lb inferior, respectively.

I cannot see past the Twiston-Davies runner….VIENNA COURT should win this.

RON – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN

SEAN – VIENNA COURT – STRAIGHT WIN

SATURDAY

12.45pm Cheltenham

Just eight going to post for this Triumph Hurdle Trial and with seven of the last nine winners in the front two on the tissue, I think it’s fair to create a two horse shortlist:

  • ICEO
  • PIED PIPER

I cannot help thinking that PIED PIPER turns up here to give trainer Gordon Elliott a “sighter”. He trains the current short priced favourite FIL DOR, who is just 5/2 to win the Triumph in March.

If his horse dots up here, FIL DOR will probably shorten for that race.

Ok, so one of this pair above wins this but I doubt very much it will go on to win at Cheltenham. DEFI DU SEUIL was the last to do so in 2017 and before that nowt so it’s a trial in name only.

ICEO has two soft ground wins to his name but we are looking at good ground on Saturday. Having said that, PIED PIPER’s only win over hurdles to date came on heavy and, his last win for Gosden, on the flat, came on heavy, too.

I do not know which of these two will win and so, whilst accepting one will, I’m going to suggest a place only punt INTERNE DE SIVOLA.

This horse bolted up over course and distance on good to soft ground last time out and his trainer, Nick Williams, is 2-4 with runners in this. He actually took it last year with GALAHAD QUEST and in 2014 with that decent one, LE ROCHER.

INTERNE DE SIVOLA place only, for me.

RON – INTERNE DE SIVOLA – PLACE ONLY

SEAN – ICEO – WON ONLY

2.30pm Cheltenham

Officially a Gold Cup trial but you have to go back a long time to find the winner of this taking a Gold Cup….was it MASTER OATS, for Kim Bailey?

Anyway, only five are going to post here and the clear favourite is CHANTRY HOUSE. However, look at the record of the favourite in this and that’s the first horse you rule out!

One winner in the last decade has managed to take this race and that was SANTINI, who runs again tomorrow, in 2020. However, seven of the last nine winners were front three on the tissue so, if I dare remove CHANTRY HOUSE….and I have done….I’m left with AYE RIGHT or SIMPLY THE BETTS.

The last named last won a race in 2020 and has never won beyond 2 miles 4 furlongs.

You know me and stats/trends and I have to put up AYE RIGHT, as he’s also arriving here the only winner of a race last time out and six of the last 10….and four of the last five winners of this, had done the same.

AYE RIGHT for me

RON – AYE RIGHT

SEAN – CHANTRY HOUSE

3.05pm Cheltenham

Another very small field, five again heading to post, two 10 year olds heading the tissue, and no horse of that age has won this in the last 10 years.

CHAMP arrives looking by far the best of these, official figures suggest he’s a good thing and the market agrees, currently 1/2. It’s 16/1 bar three and the other pair at the head of the market are officially giving CHAMP 5LB and 10lb so it’s his to lose.

I’ll never be a backer of CHAMP as he’s suspect in my eyes, looks like a champ one day and a chump the next. He wins if he’s on a going day but won’t carry a penny of my money….as will none of the others.

RON – CHAMP

SEAN – CHAMP

3.40pm Cheltenham

Six going to post here and another race you simply apply market position, light the blue touch paper, stand back, watch, then go collect. Six of the last 10 winners were front two on the tissue, only one winner bigger than 4/1 in the last seven years and two heading the tissue right now 2/1, and 3/1, with it then being 10/1 bar the pair.

One of BALCO COASTAL or HILLCREST wins this and you can dutch to make a profit.

The last three winners carried 11st 5lb, two of them were trained by Nicky Henderson and he saddles BALCO COASTAL.

If dutching ain’t your bag, he’s the play.

RON – BALCO COASTAL

SEAN – A DIFFERENT KIND

4.15pm Cheltenham

A Bumper. If you’ve been reading your Newsletters fully recently, you know to leave this to the market to solve. The OMMS for the Bumpers recently have been ridiculously accurate and, in fact, I’m using three of those for the Pick Of The Pops later!

If you want to know what the runes say, they say we want a four year old, either a winner arriving for this, or making debut….we’ve only had four previous running’s of this so trends are very light….and the only four year old in here on Saturday arrives having raced twice and been absolutely slamdunked at this track on New Years Day. She is also a filly….carrying just 10st 3lb and they have won the last three running’s of this race.

The horse in question is CHIC AVENUE and as with last years winner EILEENDOVER, is trained by Pam Sly….her only previous runner in the race.

Nothing fits from a trends angle because they are so weak so, I’m just going to go all “silly like” and suggest a place only play CHIC AVENUE.

In the Saturday morning Newsletters, you’ll definitely have more of a guide to what is actually going to win it.

RON – CHIC AVENUE – PLACE ONLY.

SEAN – MISTRAL NELL – E.W. or 20/80

1.35pm Doncaster

Only three runners and if THIRD TIME LUCKI fails to win this, on these terms, they can forget all about Cheltenham. He has to give just 5lb to horses he is rated 10lb and 15lb better than.

One you throw into an acca as he’ll be odds on here and rightly so.

Having said that, and I mentioned this the last time we discussed this horse, he has only ever won once after we’ve turned into a New Year.

If you must have a bet of any description, he’s the one but I’ll just watch.

RON – THIRD TIME LUCKI

SEAN – THIRD TIME LUCKI

2.10pm Doncaster

Another very small field.

Five only heading to post and it’s another that should, if form means anything, go the way of MIRANDA. Currently odds on, she has to give 6lb to the second favourite ANNA BUNINA, but is, officially, 11lb superior.

She has to give the third favourite, MISS HERITAGE, 6lb but is, officially, 19lb superior.

If they run to form, the 10/11 is gold dust.

MIRANDA for me.

RON – MIRANDA

SEAN – WESTERN VICTORY

2.45pm Doncaster

Anyone that was thinking about playing e.w. this weekend is going to gunning for two places only in a lot of these races and here, again, only seven are going to post.

We have a couple of “steamers” here in UNANSWERED PRAYERS, who had been as big as 13/2 earlier this week (best I can see now is 11/4), and NOT AT PRESENT 12/1 > 6/1.

The runes say…six year old….won five of the nine running’s….but none of the last three. They all carry 10st 12lb so no weight range bias to apply. Five of the nine winners won last time out and the biggest priced winner has been THE COB, put up by Sean last year I believe, and won @ 25/1! That horse was also trained by the bloke saddling the second of those steamers NOT AT PRESENT.

Ben Pauling has an exceptional record in this. He has saddled four, won with three.

We’ll have no 25/1 winner this time around as the biggest price I can see about any is 10/1 so, with seven of the nine previous winners of this having been sited front three on the tissue, six years of age, and that pair of steamers having one fit like a glove, I’ll go with UNANSWERED PRAYERS but I’d not put anyone of dutching with the Pauling runner.

RON – UNANSWERED PRAYERS

SEAN – THE REAL WHACKER E.W. or 20/80

1-40pm Fairyhouse

Henry de Bromhead mares have won the last two of these but he’s not represented on Saturday so, look to Mullins or Elliott trained horses as they had won the previous six between them.

Before MINELLA MELODY took this last year at 10/3, the favourite had won every previous running.

Jockey bookings suggest that the main Mullins runner (he has four of the nine racing for him!), is BRANDY LOVE, and Elliott relies on just one, PARTY CENTRAL.

I’ve checked the Cheltenham entries and betting and right now BRANDY LOVE is just 8/1 for the Dawn Run at the Festival (now the Parnall Properties) and is around 9/4 favourite to win this on Saturday. A stable companion is second favourite and so piecing this jigsaw together is easy enough….BRANDY LOVE wins it.

RON – BRANDY LOVE

SEAN – ALLEGORIE DE VASSY

10-34pm Gulfstream

We had to cover this race because, officially, we’ll see the worlds best horse running, KNICKS GO, who is unbeaten in his last four runs, which includes last years Breeders Cup Classic, and since moving to Brad Cox from Ben Colebrook, has won eight of his last 10 starts.

He started racing for Cox at the start of his four year old career and emphasises again what I’ve always said about horses only becoming fully mature at the age of five. As a juvenile and a three year old, he raced 13 times and won once.

At the start of last year, his five year old season, he got beaten nearly nine lengths by MISHRIFF in Dubai. Then put away for the start of the summer, he took a run to get straight before running up a four win sequence culminating in that Breeders Cup win.

On Saturday he’ll most likely add another £1.3m+ to the near £6.5m he has already won.

I’ll not try to get him beaten here and expect him to go off odds on to win again.

RON – KNICKS GO

SEAN – KNICKS GO

OMMS 1-2-3

3) – ROSY REDRUM – 12/1 > 11/4  -WON 4/1

2) – REALTA ROYALE – 14/1 > 13/2 – WON 13/2

1) – MISTRAL NELL – 12/1 > 11/2 – WON 11/4….that one indicated in Newsletter as “strong”.

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – BALCO COASTAL (Cheltenham 3-40 Saturday)

SEAN – A DIFFERENT KIND (Cheltenham 3-40 Saturday)

close
The "TWOS NEWS" Newsletter!

Hi there 👋
Thanks for dropping in!

Sign up to receive "TWOS NEWS" in your inbox, every day!

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

- PLAY EUROMILLIONS! -
Previous articleToday’s Ratings for Wincanton and Catterick – 26/01/22
Next articleTee time and back to some bread and butter golf!