Plenty of Prem action this weekend and next weelend I will be ultra selective because they play in R=Europe midweek and that always leads to weird results the following weekend.
MAN UTD V SOUTHAMPTON
I cannot work Utd out. They’ve been unpredictable all season and since Rangnick took over they’ve been steady but unexciting? They’ve only socred 1 goal in 3 of the 9 league games he has managed and it’s as if all he wants to do is not get beaten.
Last year this game ended 9-0 to Utd and Saints haven’t won at Utd since 2016, and have only won 2 of the last 22 against Utd.
Utd don’t lose at home in February. A stange stat but a fact. The only game they have lost at home in the last 28 they have played in this month was to City in 2008.
Saints were really good against Spurs in midweek and they do go for the oppositions throats. In their last 9 games they have scored and let some in so for sure, fans are getting their moneys worth. Hasenhuttl seems to only want to play 1 way and in the last 12 league games they have not kept a clean sheet and, they’ve let in 200 goals since he took over in 2018.
Utd have only scored 9 goals in the league on their own pitch this season but sonce Solskjaer got the boot, they have only lost one game.
It’s not a game I’d bet on but a low scoring draw might come up trumps.
BRENTFORD V PALACE
Palace haven’t won in 2022 yet but they should have won at Norwich and are playing well. I like lookiong for previous head to head results but these 2 haven’t played each other in a league game since 1963!
I said the other day that everyone has sussed Brentford out now and they’ve lost 5 on the bounce. They have also let in 18 goals in their last 6 games. They don’t do clean sheets and in the Prem, they have gone 11 straight without stopping the opposition scoring.
The last team to stop Palace scoring in any competition was Spurs, on Boxing Day but they don’t win games? Just 2 wins in the last 12 league games and that came at Norwich, when they were at their most rubbish.
The home side did well against City though, only losing 2-0 when I thought they’d get battered and it might be this ends a goalless draw but I’ll go under 2.5
DRAW AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 12/5
EVERTON V LEEDS
Another 2 sides that are struggling to do much of anything. They are 15th and 16th in the league, Leeds above Everton and 3 points more in the bag, but the Toffes have a game in hand.
Thjey will want to win this and if Calvert-Lwein is fit enough to play and the new lads get cracking, I can see a low scoring home win. The thing they will want to avoid is a 5th straight league defeat and they arrive today with a bog awful record of having just managed to get 1 win and 5 points from their last 14 games.
Leeds are another team that do not do clean sheets. They have let in 15 in their last 4 away but somehow, in 2022, they have scored 3 goals in 4 of their leagues games? They arrive unbeaten in 3.
No Scouser wants Everton to go down, not least because Liverpool fans loving running the results of Derby matches in their faces and I’ll say they get 1 point here and then start winning games again.
DRAW AND UNDER 2.5 @ 7/2
WATFORD V BRIGHTON
Graham Potter must get manager of the year. To do what he has done with Brighton is brilliant.
What the stats are telling me is that this is another draw becuase Brighton draw loads of games. No fewer than 12 of their last 17 league games, have been draws and what Brighton don’t do is panic if they go behind in a game. The last 6 games they drew came as a result of an equaliser and the games ended 1-1.
When Brighton play away from home they do not get beaten. Well, they do but they’ve only lost 1 of the 11 on the road this season and, all of their wins this season have come against teams lower than them in the league. That’s 6.
Watford haven’t won in 11 games now, change managers more often than a quick change artist quick changes and under Roy Hodgson, have yet to score a goal. He’s obviously there to do an Allardyce, get a point here and there and hope it keeps them up. Potter though, has sent out 5 teams to play a Hodgson side and never won one, drew 2, lost 3.
Stas will tell you Watford are already down because they have already lost 15 of their 22 games this season and no team has ever done that badly and stayed up.
I’ll go for another draw and under 2.5 goals.
DRAW AND UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 13/5
NORWICH V MAN CITY
A case of how many, isn’t it?
Norwich are now unbeaten in 3 but should have lost to Palace the other night and I cannot for a second imagine City will not win this game very easily, and to nil.
When Norwich’s new manager was in charge at Villa, he lost all 5 games to Pep’s side and with City arriving with the best defensive record in the league this season, just 14 goals against, and Norwich having the worst goal difference by a mile on -32, you can smell an avalanche coming.
I’d say 3-0 to City but with Europe next week and no need to send out all of his big guns today, I’ll not suggest a bet here because if City win easy you’ll not get odds worth taking, and if Norwich get a draw or win, I would lose money because I would not be betting either happens.