It isn’t the best racing this weekend and who knows what the weather is going to do to it but Ron and Sean have a had a good old natter about Tiger Roll, Sir Mark Todd, Ascot having a fleet of Porsche but only one going stick and the potential superstar that is the colt by Kingman out of Enable….how good could that horse be?
Ron’s side of the racing conversation below, for those hard of hearing, with Sean’s selections introduced.
Only six going to post and a sign that all is not well at the Paul Nicholl’s yard is that he’s not represented here. He has saddled the last three winners and won the race with four of the five he has sent for it, in the last decade.
I can only work with trends here as I have no tissue and whilst stating the obvious you need to be a 4-y-o, carrying 11st 6lb and arriving having won last time out.
Seven of the last 10 winners had won before coming for this….and I’m also seeing four of the last five did so, too.
That means we look to one of COLLINGHAM or PORTICELLO.
Neither has won on the ground they’ll face on Saturday, which is currently described as heavy so who knows how they cope with it.
The winner of this has been front two on the tissue in seven of the last 10 running’s, too so whilst I’ll not be betting here, if you wish to get involved, look to the shortest priced of that pair, and pray!
RON – PORTICELLO
SEAN – PORTICELLO
Hughie Morrison won this last year with THIRD WIND, who is one of the six running here for a lovely first prize of £34k!
The horse is 1-2 on the ground, 1-8 at the trip and 1-2 at Haydock and he has won five and placed in three of his 13 runs over hurdles so, expect another big run.
Warren Greatrex does well with his runners in this. He has saddled five in the last 10 years, won with one, placed with two so EMITOM (won this is 2020), could well outrun his odds of 10/1 and arrives with a very similar profile to THIRD WIND 1-2 ground, 1-7 trip and 1-2 track.
Favourites have a horrible time in this, just one winner in the last decade but you do not want to look outside the front four for your winner, as only one of those 10 were so, it’s one of MOLLY OLLYS WISHES, THIRD WIND or TOP VILLE BEN.
I’ve no preferred age grouping but want to rule out horses carrying more than 11st 6lb, as only one of the last 10 has pulled that off.
Of that trio named I must rule out last years as he’s got 11st 10lb on Saturday winner so if you fancy a two horse dutch the remaining pair, be my guest.
Looking at the odds of the pair I’m working with, the market says being priced bigger than 7/1 is a negative and as TOP VILLE BEN is around 15/2 right now and MOLLY OLLYS WISHES is 5/2, the Skelton horse does it for me. She is unbeaten at this trip, too.
RON – MOLLY OLLYS WISHES
SEAN – THOMAS DARBY
None of the seven turning out has winning form on heavy ground, three have never attempted ground, trip or track and this has all the appeal of chucking dice up a table!
Trends say six year olds dominate….they have won seven of the previous 10 running’s. You must arrive here having won last time out, as eight of those 10 winners also did that and, if you are outside the front two on the tissue, stay in your box….nine of the last 10 winners were favourite, or second favourite.
The three six year olds all got beaten last time out and the only two arriving having won last time out are GREEN BOOK and ANGLERS CRAG.
The first named is trained by Venetia Williams who won this with her only previous entrant in the competition, TOUBEERA, in 2014.
GREEN BOOK is a 5-y-o, trained by a trainer who knows how to win races run on heavy ground and will arrive with a stunning RTF figure 60%
It’s not a race I can assess accurately using trends because nothing is a 100% fit, but GREEN BOOK is closest and if that’s front pair on the tissue, I’ll have a quid on it.
RON – GREEN BOOK
SEAN – ANGLERS CRAG
Looks a poor renewal of this race to me. The last five winners of it arrived having won last time out and all six turning up on Saturday arrive having been beaten last time up.
Six and seven year olds are where we’ll usually find our winner, and they’ll be in the front three on the tissue because trends say seven of the last 10 winners were.
Someone is going to trouser nearly £30k with an ordinary horse and I cannot see a winner of this in the last decade that went on to be much above what I’d call half decent.
So, no older than seven, front three on the tissue….DOES HE KNOW and ANNUAL INVICTUS look the best of the bunch.
It’s a toss of a coin job. DOES HE KNOW is 0-2 ground, whereas ANNUAL INVICTUS is 2-7. But ANNUAL INVICTUS is having his first run over this trip, whereas DOES HE KNOW is 2-4 at it.
You would be a brave man to say either is a good thing but I prefer horses that have winning form on the ground and ANNUAL INVICTUS is around 4/1, wears first time cheekpieces and Chris Gordon has his running to a RTF figure of 61%, whilst Kim Bailley is 41%.
I’ll go with ANNUAL INVICTUS 20/80
RON – ANNUAL INVICTUS – 20/80
SEAN – FERN HILL E.W
The first race you can play e.w. 1-2-3….hurrah!
Having said that, we are relying on Joseph O’Brien sending his over to keep it that way and right now, I see no jockey booked.
Eight currently go to post and if trends I’m looking at continue, this should be a piece of cake to solve. You need a seven year old onside because they have won 50% of the 10 I’m working with, and three of the last four.
They all carry 11st 7lb so next I’m looking at market position and if you sit outside the front three on the tissue, you’re done for!
It’s another poor renewal of the race though, as the front three all arrive having been beaten last time out and I see five of the last 10….and the last four, all arrived having won last time out. Again, someone is going home with a lovely prize of over £85K, with a bog average horse that cannot string back to back wins together. Outside the front three on the tissue, the rest arrive with as many letters as numbers next to their names.
If FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES arrives he’ll most likely go off favourite and, for that I’d oppose him. Only two of the last 10 favourites obliged.
The only other seven year old in the front three on the tissue I’m looking at is another Venetia William’s trained horse, FANION D’ESTRUVAL.
Around the 9/2 mark and good for a 20/80 on trends alone, I’m in!
RON – FANION D’ESTRUVAL – 20/80
SEAN – DASHEL DRASHER E.W
2.20pm Gowran Park
Seven head to post for what looks a poor first prize to me, for a Grade 3 race.
Trends look useless here. The front two on the tissue are both five year olds but, we’ve had only one of that age win this in the last 10 years and that was back in 2015.
However, if you look to be betting anything bigger than 11/4 you are throwing money down the grid….well, you would have done in all 10 previous race that I’m looking at.
We’ve had no winner bigger than 9/4 in the last eight years.
The only qualifier on tissue is TEAHUPOO, currently around 13/8 and it’s then 5/1 bar but thing is, he’s carting 11st 10lb and only one of the last nine winners pulled that off.
But then, only two winners in the last nine years has carried more than 11st 7lb and all four at the head of the market will be trying to beat that stat.
It’s bonkers from a stats angle but I’ll run with the favourites stat, and put up TEAHUPOO to break so many trends its ridiculous.
RON – TEAHUPOO
SEAN – QUILIXIOS
3.30pm Gowran Park
Another poor prize for the grade of race.
Henry De Bromhead has saddled three of the last five winners but has nowt in here on Saturday. It’s a dog of a race to be fair.
Four of the last nine winners won at odds on and none of the last six winners went off bigger than 3/1….and that was last years winner….before that it was 5/2.
We’ve got a 10 year old trading 6/4 favourite, and that horse has not seen a winners enclosure since 2019….I could not back MELON.
The second favourite is, officially, 11lb inferior to MELON, but runs of level weights. The third favourite is a stone inferior to MELON….but has to give this 10 year old favourite 3lb?
If MELON loses, he’s a lemon. It’s a race I’d swerve like a plague for betting purposes but for podcast purposes I can only say MELON.
RON – MELON
SEAN – CHATHAM STREET LAD
- CHARM OFFENSIVE – 8/1 > 5/1 – WON 7/1
- COOLVALLA – 10/1 > 6/1 – WON 5/1
- ARD CHROS – 14/1 > 7/1 – WON 7/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
E.W. DOUBLE ANNUAL INVICTUS AND FANION D’ESTRUVAL
ANGLERS CRAG E.W.