Just plain, simple racing only chat this week as Ron and Sean look to find us some weekend winners ahead of Cheltenham.
Below you have a race in the text not mentioned in the Podcast as it’s a handicap that Ron will be disecting on Saturday, with a view to finding you a Cheltenham winner, in addtion to the winner of that race below.
Only six previous running’s of this but it’s already belonging to the O’Brien’s. Aiden won the first three, Joseph has won the last two and in 2019 Mick Halford broke the run, beating Aiden O’Brien’s runner into second place.
My starting point therefore is anything trained by an O’Brien
- ABSOLUTE RULER – Donnacha O’Brien
- IN ECSTACY – Joseph O’Brien
Both are course and distance winners so if they have trained on….always the issue backing 3-y-o’s on seasonal debut, no matter how good they were at two years of age….then they’ll be competitive.
The current favourite is JUNCTURE, trained by Ger Lyons who has never raced on this surface, never over this trip and, never at this track.
You do not, if trends continue as they have done, want anything to do with a horse trading bigger than 11/4 as five winners were priced short.
Only two favourites have won this (two of Aiden’s three), and if I ever have a bet on Irish all weather racing all I could do would be to work with trends/stats and here it would have to be ABSOLUTE RULER.
Currently the second favourite at around 5/2 he’d never be a confident selection but he’s my Podcast selection.
Ron – ABSOLUTE RULER
Sean – IN ECSTACY
This will be won by a five or six year old, carrying more than 11st, sitting front two on the tissue and arriving having won last time out.
Seven of the nine running’s have gone to those age groups, eight of the nine to horses carrying more than 11st and eight of the nine to horses trading front two on the tissue, at the off. Those last three words are the most important, as you found out last week when looking at the race WIN MY WINGS won for Christian Williams that my Profiling found, but that you had eliminated when doing the same thing earlier. It was 20/1 when the betting opened, it won @ 11/2F.
Had I Profiled that race 24 hours earlier, I’d have got it wrong. Everything these days is dictated by the markets.
The two heading the market as I type are:
- RICHMOND LAKE
- NORTH LODGE
The last winner to take this carrying 11st 8lb was CLEVER COOKIE in 2014 so I’ll run with RICHMOND LAKE.
His three length second to JONBON at Haydock is top quality form and I think he’ll take a bit of beating here.
Ron – RICHMOND LAKE
Sean – SHOLOKJACK
Seven going to post here and I’ve only got eight previous running’s to work with so trends are definitely suspect.
Six of the eight winners have been aged nine or older….five of them nine year olds.
If the weight trends keep up to speed I want nothing on my betting slip carrying more than 11st 2lb. Five of the last seven winners carried 10st 12lb.
That would rule out NUTS WELL and WINDSOR AVENUE. The rest are all on 11st dead.
The last six winners have sat front three on the tissue and whatever they send of favourite should run a cracker, if it completes. Their finishing positions to date read U, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 0, 2 so Placepot banker material if nothing else.
Right now I’m looking at one of:
- ESPOIR DE ROMAY
- ITCHY FEET
Since this market opened I’ve seen plenty of support for ESPOIR DE ROMAY and more gentle support for ITCHY FEET but one of them wins it and off level weights, with the favourite officially 9lb better than ITCHY FEET, I’m with ESPOIR DE ROMAY
Ron – ESPOIR DE ROMAY
Sean – ESPOIR DE ROMAY
This is the race I’ve been looking forward to working with this weekend. That’s because of the £100k bonus attached to it if the winner goes on to win at Cheltenham.
Horse with Cheltenham entries are:
- SAINT D’OROUX
- BALKO SAINT
Last year the Irish lads pulled it off with THE SHUNTER and as I mentioned the other day, the only Irish trained runner here, entered up for Cheltenham, is SAINT D’OROUX.
His current price of 12/1 doesn’t fit the trends here. But then, if you had read the runes this early last year, you would not have been on the plunge horse, THE SHUNTER, who was backed into 5/2 and favourite. He proved to be a graded horses in a handicap, which is how these punts are landed.
In 2-19 Nicky Henderson came close to pulling it off with WE HAVE A DREAM. He won this race by six lengths, before running second in the County Hurdle.
This year he saddles only BUVEUR D’AIR, who has no Cheltenham entries this time around.
On Saturday I’ll be watching the markets like a hawk and let you know my thoughts on a Cheltenham ante-post punt before this race goes off.
Another all-weather race that has, in the past, been farmed by William Haggas. He has taken four of the last eight renewals of this, three on the bounce between 2017-2019 inclusive. In the last 10 years he has sent six horses for this race, won with the four, placed with another so, he gets them ready for it.
His last three winners all arrived here making seasonal debut and the last four winners of this all did that.
He saddles CANONIZED, who was given a pipe opener on February 23rd, where he finished second.
The market tends are weird here. Five winners have gone off favourite, four winners went off fifth favourite. The favourite has placed first three in eight of the last 10 running’s so, another that should give you a run for your money, whatever it is.
It’s not a race I could ever get involved in financially as they are all 3-y-o’s, two have only raced twice, two have only been seen four times and EL CABALLO, who beat CANONIZED in February, makes just his fifth racecourse appearance.
A no bet race for me personally but for Podcast purposes and the trainers record in this race, I’ll put up CANONIZED 20/80
Ron- CANONIZED – 20/80
Sean – EL CABALLO
Only six runners again I’m afraid. The nine previous running’s have seen the race go to horses aged six of seven on seven occasions, including the five running’s, too.
All bar the winner of last years race have carried 11st 1lb or more, SCARLET AND DOVE went in with 10st 10lb last year but was well backed to do that.
We had a 25/1 winner in 2015 but nothing bigger than 4/1 in the two races before that, nor in the five since. If something bigger than 7/2 wins it, it’s an anomaly.
Only one runner here has previous winning form on the going as currently described, FANCY FOUNDATIONS. None has previous course winning form, VELVET ELVIS already 0-3 here.
It’s again not a race I’ll have a bet in myself but the Mullins trained six year old GENTLEMAN DE MEE appeals for Podcast purposes. Right age, right weight, trainer won the race in 2016 with a six year old and he’d be as good a 20/80 as any.
Ron – GENTLEMAN DE MEE
Sean – STAND OFF
We saw a 40/1 winner of this last year but that was the only winner priced bigger than 4/1 in the history of the race.
Five and six year olds are the horses we need onside, they have won seven of the eight previous running’s but there is no point me chatting about weight ranges as they all carry 11st 1lb so what we need to be doing here is looking for a horse aged five or six, front two on the tissue and then pray a 40/1 shot doesn’t come along again because if it does, we’ve all lost money here.
Funny thing is, the only horse ruled out by virtue of age is STARLYTE, who is trained by the bloke that won with the 40/1 shot last year!
GET A TONIC has been put in at around 4/7 and if he lands the odds, he’ll be the second odds on shot in three years to do so.
All of her wins to date have come in double figure field sizes so is she put off by small field? I’ve seen that plenty of times before.
She is officially 9lb better than anything else here but that stat puts me off playing odds on even if I do think she should win it.
Ron – GET A TONIC
Sean – SO SAID I
Charlie Appleby has taken the last four running’s of this race and saddles recent course and distance winner GLOBAL STORM. Currently second favourite behind HUKUM, who is making seasonal debut having been missing for 154 days.
Five of the last seven favourites have won this and I expect one of that pair to win this on Saturday morning.
Given the Appleby stats, and the fact Buick rides and he has ridden three of the last four winners, I’ll go 20/80 GLOBAL STORM
Ron – GLOBAL STORM – 20/80
Sean – HUKUM
My knowledge of racing over there is virtually nil but I’ve seen something here that interests me statistically.
The same trainer jockey combination of Bin Ghadayer/ Barzalona has taken this three times in the last five years, and they send the current favourite to post, HYPOTHETICAL, who used to be trained by John Gosden, who only managed to get an all weather race out of him, on juvenile debut.
Since being sent to the desert and running on fast all weather tracks in Meydan, his form figures read 1, 2, 1, 2, 4, 12, 1 so with those stats all I have, I’ll say go 20/80 HYPOTHETICAL, then cross everything.
Ron – HYPOTHETICAL – 20/80
Sean – AVANT GARDE – E.W.
LORD GLITTERS tries to follow up his win in this race last year and the layers have him around 9/4 favourite to olige and history tells us going off favourite, or as near favourite as not, is a huge plus. Seven of the last eight winners went off 4/1 or shorter and three of the last six favourite went past the post first.
I’d love to tell you I’ve worked on sorting out any potential draw bias here, or any bias come to that, but I only ever look at racing from overseas when Sean pops them in the Podcast list but I’ve seen enough to suggest that if trends continue to play a part, then LORD GLITTERS, BARNEY ROY and ZAKOUSKI will most likely provide you with the winner.
All three are course and distance winners, priced right but if I had to nail my colours to the mast of just one, it would be ZAKOUSKI.
He is the youngest of the trio mentioned and we’ve had only two winners aged older than six in the last 10 years so purely for Podcast purposes, ZAKOUSKI for me.
Ron – ZAKOUSKI – 20/80
Sean – ZAKOUSKI
- SOME DETAIL – 12/1 > 4/1 – WON @ 9/4F
- NOVUS ADITUS – 40/1 > 14/1 – WON @14/1
- STORM HILL – 100/1 > 40/1 – WON @ 40/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
Ron – Kelso double – RICHMOND PARK – ESPOIR DE ROMAY
Sean – SHOLOCKJACK and AVANTE GARDE