Cheltenham champions, The Lincoln, Dubai World Cup, Kempton and much more discussed this week!

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The World of Sport
The World of Sport
Cheltenham champions, The Lincoln, Dubai World Cup, Kempton and much more discussed this week!
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For our hard of hearing members this is the text of Ron’s side of the Podcast discussion, with Sean’s selections added to each race!

DONCASTER 1-50

Four year olds have been dominant in this in recent years, four of the last six winners came from that age group and five of the last eight. I’d certainly not want anything older than six as there has only been one winner older, that was PERFECT PASTURE, who won this in 2018 and went off joint favourite to do so.

Nothing carries less than 9st so weight ranges are redundant but a position front three on the handicap is not a bad things as five of the last eight winners were so, I’d be with one of GARRUS or DILIGENT HARRY in this.

The first named is trained by Charles Hills, who won this last year with ROYAL COMMANDO. He has sent three for this, won with that one and placed with another so, he’s clearly targeting it.

Kevin Ryan also gets his ready for it. He has sent seven for this, placed with six so BIELSA has to be interesting for place only bettors. He’s a seven year old so fails by virtue of age range.

Clive Cox trains DILIGENT HARRY and he too gets his primed….five previous entries, two of which have placed.

For Podcast purposes I’m putting up DILIGENT HARRY 20/80. A four year old, carrying 9st 8lb…which the last three winners have done, and if he finishes first two, a profit made.

RON – DILIGENT HARRY – 20/80

SEAN – MONDAMEJ – E.W

DONCASTER 3-00

Only four runners in a race that has seen five year olds taking the last four running’s and five of the last seven. The only five year old in here is BOOSALA. He represents William Haggas, who has only sent two for it previously, one won, one placed.

One of our members religiously follows my 20 To Follow lists and I’d put this in one of those back in October 2020. Never made a racecourse that year but he kept the faith and was rewarded with a 22/1 winner at Doncaster in November last year.

Roger Varian trains ROYAL CHAMPION, and he has sent five for this in recent years, won with three, placed with one. His three winners though all went off odds on to take this and this horse is currently second favourite @ 10/3.

Hannon produced KOOL COMPANY to win this in 2017 and his CHINDIT is currently around 4/6 to give him his second winner in the five years.

I do not like small field races because you get a false pace. I hate backing odds on shots. It’s a no bet race for me under normal circumstances but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest the Varian horse with no confidence whatsoever.

RON – ROYAL CHAMPION

SEAN – CHINDIT

DONCASTER 3-35 (THE LINCOLN)

Once upon a time, this was impossible to solve. Then, the Newmarket lads decided they could ready a Group horse that been lightly raced at three ready to take a big pot home and the last five winners have been four year olds, four of those venturing up from Suffolk.

The last three have also gone in at 5/1, 5/2f and 9/2 and, the last three winners have been front two on the tissue.

So, all we need to do here is look for horses trading 5/1 or shorter, trained in Newmarket and they are:

  • MODERN NEWS
  • MUJTABA
  • SALEYMM

Last year we saw the Gosden’s employ the services of an unknown 7lb claimer to ride HAQEEQY, and he looked an awesome jockey….but then blotted his copybook (we’ll leave that there!), and I’m thinking we may be about to see another pattern emerging as Charlie Appleby has booked Harry Davies, a 5lb claimer, to ride his MODERN NEWS.

A previous course winner, he was recently given a spin over in a Dubai Listed race, came home in third and was shipped back to blighty for this.

Haggas has also booked a claimer for his runner, MUJTABA, who arrives unbeaten and could be anything.

If I was betting here I’d dutch that trio but as we want a definitive selection I’m putting up MODERN NEWS. No confidence, just a sensible-ish selection based on recent trends.

RON – MODERN NEWS

SEAN – DARKNESS

CURRAGH 3-41

A typical Irish minefield.

We have winners of this, in the last seven years priced 100/1, 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1, with a pair of 8/1 shots in there too.

Right now we have last season’s Falmouth Stakes runner up trading at around 4/7 and the last time we saw MOTHER EARTH she was running home a near two length fourth in the Hong Kong Mile back in December.

None of these has won on the going as currently described and she is just 2-12 at the trip….and 0-3 at the track.

The formbook suggests she’s the winner but that’s two big negatives so that price is as attractive as the Elephant Man.

EMPHATIC ANSWER is 0-1 ground, 2-5 trip and 1-1 over course and distance. She won on seasonal debut last year, in her five races on turf to date she has won two, placed in three and I’d rather go 20/80 @ 13/2 that one, than take 4/7 about a filly that for all her form looks great, has only won three of her 18 races and placed in 11.

I’ll go 20/80 EMPHATIC ANSWER.

RON – EMPHATIC ANSWER – 20/80

SEAN –  MOTHER EARTH

KEMPTON 2-05

The most significant stat here is that the market is pointing me towards. Seven of the last nine favourites have won this and in that period of time, the winner has never been outside the front three on the tissue so if that holds up, the winner is one of:

  • FANCY MAN
  • FELIX
  • FATHER OF JAZZ

So the winner will start with the letter “F”

Three of the last four winners arrived having made seasonal debut so that rules out the Varian runner, FATHER OF JAZZ.

Four year olds have a decent enough record in this, they won it three times on the trot between 2013 & 2015 but in the last five years they have won just one, the other four going to horses aged five (2), and six (2).

Only one winner in the last nine years has carried more than 9st to victory and so, by the magic of stats and trends, I’m left with FELIX as my most likely winner.

A previous course and distance winner he is 1-1 surface, 1-1 track and 3-12 trip. The other pair have yet to race on the Kempton all weather.

I’m with FELIX.

RON – FELIX – 20/80

SEAN – FELIX

MEYDAN 1-35

Mission impossible for me but we’ll give it a shot. Overseas racing is very much Sean’s domain and I’m working with trainers and jockey’s I’ve heard of but know diddly about.

From an age group perspective, I’ve no clues, horses aged 7, 7, 6, 5, 8, 9, 5, 6, 5, 8 have won this in recent times so maybe run with horses aged either five, or six?

Nine of the last 10 winners all carried more than 9st so go there too?

Market position….in the last five running’s we’ve seen horses winning at 10/1, 12/1 and 14/1 last year, but the two years previous to that Charlie Appleby won with horses priced 11/4 and 4/6.

Let’s say, nothing priced bigger than 14/1.

  • MAN OF PROMISE
  • CASA CREED

They are the only two that fit. You can dutch to turn a profit but the first named is trained by Appleby.

The last three running’s of this have been ridden by UK based jockeys and if trends/stats work out there, the winner is MAN OF PROMISE.

RON – MAN OF PROMISE

SEAN – MAN OF PROMISE

MEYDAN 2-45

We had a 40/1 winner of this last season. Oh joy.

Age groupings I’d suggest are best would be those aged five, six or seven….they have won eight of the last 10 and seven of the last eight.

Again, nothing carrying less than 9st (none of the last 10 winners carried less), and whulst we had that 40/1 winner, that was an anomaly and I’m seeing that none of the other nine winners went off at a bigger than 9/1, and there was only one of those bigger than 13/2 so I’m looking for a five, six or seven year old, carrying 9st or more and trading 13/2 or shorter.

No definitive qualifier but for Podcast purposes I’ll put up MERAAS and RED LE ZELE. The first named is a five year old (favoured as they’ve won two of the last three running’s), around 8/1 and a course and distance winner, whilst the second named ran well in this last year when ridden by Ryan Moore, finishing second.

The current favourite, DR SCHIVEL, came as close as you can get to winning at the Breeders Cup last and on his final outing last season he had a virus so you can tear that form up.

I’ll suggest a 20/80 MERAAS simply because he fits and is a previous course and distance winner.

RON – MERAAS

SEAN – DR SCHIVEL

MEYDAN 3-20

LORD NORTH won this last season and is one of my favourite horses in training. I’m also a fan of LORD GLITTERS, who did us a massive Podcast turn last year winning at a monster price in Bahrain.

I think LORD NORTH will have this set up for him. He’ll travel great, be coming from off what will probably be a very fast pace as PANTHALASSA goes off like stink (that will also suit LORD GLITTERS), and I just remember how brilliant the Gosden horse was in this race last year when he bolted up by three lengths.

I’ll forgive him that defeat at Lingfield behind ALENQUER at Linfield in February because no way would he have been fully wound up for that £62k first prize to the winner race, when this £2.25m prize was just around the corner.

I’ll back him to repeat the dose.

RON – LORD NORTH

SEAN – SAFFRON BEACH

MEYDAN 3-55

Look no further than the four and five year olds here. Nothing older has won this since ST NICHOLAS ABBEY back in 2013 and also, don’t got looking a shock result. It’s one of those races in which the cream always rises to the top. Only one winner bigger than 5/1 in the last 10 years and that was the 7/1 shot DOLNIYA in 2015.

The winner will also carry either 8st 13lb or 9st dead as the last five have and, eight of the last 10 so this should be relatively easy to solve.

The three qualifiers (and a very sensible dutch), are:

  • YIBIR
  • SHAHRYAR
  • AUTHORITY

Age, weight and current tissue price spot on. The second named is probably the best of the Japanese runners but I don’t see why he should reverse form with AUTHORITY, on their run in the Japan Cup, where they finished second and third to CONTRAIL.

AUTHORITY gave SHAHRYAR 5lb and beat him nearly two lengths and tomorrow only has to give that horse 1lb.

AUTHORITY has since come out and won again and yet, I can get 6/1 about him, just 9/2 for SHARYAR?

GLORY VASE is a very decent horse but fails the age grouping stats, and all ALENQUER has done since this market opened is drift 8/1 > 10/1

Plain fact is, this prize has come back to blighty every year for the last five years and I’m with YIBIR, the winner of last season’s Breeders Cup Turf. Now a winner of 50% of his 12 runs on turf, and improving with racing, he’ll take a bit of beating here if my trends are telling me the truth.

RON – YIBIR

SEAN – AUTHORITY E.W

MEYDAN 4-30

The runes say, if Saaed Bin Suroor doesn’t win it, then the American horses do and as Bin Suroor’s only runner is around the 25/1 mark right now, and we have four American runners sitting top of the tissue, the front pair of LIFE IS GOOD and HOT ROD CHARLIE being superstars, trade 8/11 and 10/3, it’s then 12/1 bar the two.

LIFE IS GOOD….is good….very good. He won the Breeders Cup Mile last year, has then beaten another American Breeders Cup winner, KNICKS GO, easily, over nine furlongs, and it’s really just a case of him getting this extra furlong.

I put up HOT ROD CHARLIE for the Kentucky Derby in a Podcast last April and he ran a blinder to come second. His problem is, he doesn’t win as often as he should and his record of four wins from 14 career starts suggests he might just like to see one in front of him. He was beaten at 1/5 at San Antonio in December and on a formline with KNICKS GO, has no chance with the favourite.

I doubt any of the others will be anything like good enough to beat LIFE IS GOOD and he’d be a confident bet here.

RON – LIFE IS GOOD

SEAN – LIFE IS GOOD

OMMS

  • GRIS MAJEUR – 20/1 > 11/1 – WON 10/1
  • DEEPER BLUE – 6/1 > 7/2 – WON 5/2F
  • KANNAPOLI – 7/1 > 3/1 – WON 11/8

SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND

RON – LORD NORTH – DUBAI TURF

SEAN – SAFFRON BEACH & AUTHORITY E.W DOUBLE.

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