I had some low scoring games up last weekend and just as Ron mentions his fag end of a racing season, football is no different. I’m working with teams that have little or nothing to play for, safe in mid-table, no chance of being relegated or promoted, and they have mentally gone on holiday.
The sides at the bottom are there for a reason and those scrapping out the play-off positions will either rise to the challenge, or choke on it.
I’m doing four games again this weekend, and all four games are between sides that should produce BTTS.
BOURNEMOUTH V BRISTOL CITY
A banker home win for sure and not just because these two sides have met only three times before and all have been won by today’s home side.
Bournemouth concede an average of one goal per home game, Bristol City an average of 2.21 on the road so it looks a 2-1, 3-1 home win based on those stats.
In terms of goals scored then Bournemouth have a very decent average of 1.94 goals per home match, with Bristol having a 1.21 goal per game avrage away from their own patch.
BTTS has landed in 27 of Bristol’s 39 league games this season, and 50% of Bournemouths games have ended BTTS, including three of their last five matches.
I’m going BTTS/HOME WIN and if you fancy it +2.5 goals.
- BTTS – 3/4
- HOME – 2/5
- BTTS/HOME – 9/5
- +2.5 GOALS @ 4/7
ACCRINGTON V CHELTENHAM
The laegue table tells you we have two teams that may well already be on a beach somewhere in their own heads. They sit 12th and 13th in the league, no chance of going up, or down and it’s all very much a case of going through the motions now.
Accrington have scored in each of their last 10 home games, and they’ve only not managed to hit the back of the net once at home this term. Four of Cheltenham’s last five games we’ve seen BTTS landed. This season 63% of all of Cheltenham’s league games have seen BTTS.
It all depends on the mental approach to this game really but on stats/trends I’m happy to say BTTS/HOME.
- BTTS – @ 4/7
- HOME – @ 23/20
- BTTS/HOME – @ 11/4
- +2.5 GOALS @ 8/11
WALSALL V ORIENT
Again, two sides with nothing to play for, they sit 16th and 17th in the league table, so we just have to hope they have not packed the buckets and spades yet.
Walsall are in are old form right now and have won their last four home games. The last five games they have played has seen BTTS landed on four occasions and the probability is they will net again today as they have done in their last seven games coming into this one.
Orient are loving being on the road right now nad are unbeaten in their last four trips away from home. They have scored in each of their last four games, and I see a 1-1 draw in this game not only because eight of the 18 times they have met, have ended as drawn matches.
The home side is tough to beat on their own turf right now and average 1.53 points per game at home, with Orient getting 0.89 points per game away. Walsall concedes an average of 1.26 goals per game at home, Orient 1.21 away so let’s say 1-1 looks sound.
- BTTS – @ 11/10
- DRAW – @ 15/8
- BTTS/DRAW – @ 10/3
- -2.5 GOALS @ 1/2
BARROW V PORT VALE
Here the home side are fighting for their Division Two lives whilst Vale are fighting like crazy for promotion. I doubt Barrow will stop the away side taking all three points this afternoon but they have to really go for it.
The home side are fortunate their are three sides currently worse than them this season but so close to the drop are they, that they cannot afford to be packed and ready to jet off, ditto Vale with their needing these three points to stay ahed of those teams just below them, all on the same number of points.
Previous games between this pair have averaged 2.67 goals so I’m hoping to see the away side winning 2-1, or 3-1 to land all bets.
Vale are averaging 2.6 points per game away, based on their last five on the road, and in those five games BTTS has landed three times.
- BTTS – @ 23/20
- AWAY – @ 13/10
- BTTS/AWAY – @ 9/2
- +2.5 GOALS @ 13/8