We will be educated this afternoon, as plenty of 3-y-o’s return to action, or go racing for the first time at Newmarket and that place is for note taking only. If you bet there, you are guessing.
Beverley is far more interesting from my own point of view and whilst it’s still two week away from when I consider betting properly, I’m monitoring these results, watching every race, and looking for horses that will strip fitter next time, be more competitive, whilst also highlighting horses for my subcribed membership, which are (according to market forses), “expected” to run very well.
The jumps meetings at Cheltenham, Kempton and Southwell I’ll be leaving well alone for now, waiting for the summer jumpers to appear. Those racing today will primarily be horses that have been on the go for many months now, in need of a field, some R&R, before being brought back in next August.
In the sprint races at Beverley, look for horses drawn low. The only time this changes is when they get very soft ground, and the horses fire across the track coming off the turn for home. Generally they cling limpet-like to that far rail and anything drawn high in a double figure size field need jet propulsion to get anywhere close to the front runners that had the benefit of a low draw.
I’m going to produce daily articles from now onwards, and I’ll drop a few ideas the way of our casual readers that might help them back a winner or two in future months.
So today I’ll offer up a suggestion per meeting, based on what I’ve produced for my subscribed members but remember, we’ve now reached a point in the season of both codes, where things will happen that have you scratching your head wondering exactly “how that happened”.
It’s the Wood Ditton this afternoon and the markets are suggesting one of SECRET STATE or FRANCESCO CLEMENTE will be winning it. Punters are sniffing around NOBLE ANTHEM but I’d suggest the profit is possibly gained by dutching the front pair in the market and that produces a profit of 50% if successful.
NATIVE TRAIL looks unopposable in the Craven and is 4/11 > 1/5 to win that race. For watching only.
An outsider seeing support in the 4-10, a race confined to horses that have not raced more than once….OLD HARROVIAN 16/1 > 9/1. That might reward a place only punt.
I have produced Ratings or three races taking place there this afternoon and with the early indications being that the figures can very much be relied on, three of the four rated races produced this week having the winner in my top two rated horses, that information is purely for “Members Only”!
I can tell you though that BRAVE EMPEROR is very much “expected” in the 1-00pm, if the market move for that horse tells a true tale. It will all depend on how much ROUSING ENCORE has come on from his debut run 12 days ago. I like Fahey juveniles beaten on debut, that race less that two weeks afterwards and that one fits the bill. I’d suggest they will be the first two horses home.
I’m also interested in Michael Bell’s LOUDSPEAKER in the 1-40pm. The Queen’s 3-y-o gelding makes handicap debut today having had three runs on all weather surfaces at the end of the last flat season and races over two furlongs further today for his first run on turf. The trainer only sends 3-y-o’s here when they are “off”, close to a 25% strike rate with them over the last five years. A 20/80 if ever I saw one!
I simply do not get the same “vibe” off the word Cheltenham, as I will next October, when we switch codes again.
In the 1-30pm, two horses are being backed to the exclusion of everything else – CAPTAIN MORGS / WHATSUPWITHYOU, with MONGOL EMPEROR absolutely rock solid @ 6/1.
One of that trio wins this and if they produced a combo exotic I’d not be surprised. Perhaps dutch the first two named and tinker with Trifectas?
It begins….twilight meetings and my life made ultra busy looking at five meetings a day for you.
Very small fields here but one horse you should consider is UP FOR PAROL….being very well supported to win the 6-40pm – 61 > 10/3
The 7-00pm race here sees Dan Skelton’s GENTLE CONNECTIONS – 7/2 > 9/4 the best backed horse on that card right now. They have put first time cheekpieces on and whilst it’s not a race for heavy staking, if you are going to put a Lucky 15 together using the information above, you’d seemingly want that one in it.