The Podcast Text

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I’m afraid it happened again, at more or less exactly the same point in the recording.

About 45 minutes in Skype crashed at my end….Sean continued talking to himself until I called him back to tell him the lot was gone again.

This time I posted a question on their support Forum and had several replies and, after a bit of question and answer, they advised I do this:

Hi Ron,

Try resetting the Skype local settings:

  1. Open Task Manager and end the process of all Skype.exe
  2. On your keyboard, press and hold Windows key + R to open the RUN box
  3. Type %appdata%\microsoft and press Enter
  4. Locate Skype for Desktop folder
  5. Rename the folder to Skype for Desktop_old

I asked if that would solve the problem and was advised I would only know when I started recording another Podcast and if it doesn’t crash after 45 minutes, so I’ll do as advised and spit fur if next time, it all goes up the Suwannee again!

NEWCASTLE 1-30

RON – Only six heading to post, only three previous running’s of this race, two of which have gone to favourites, last year the Gosden 4/6 shot MEGALLEN.

IMPERIAL FIGHTER was the best of these at two, rated 6lb better than the next best on official figures DUBAI POET.

Has he trained on? Your guess is as good as mine? Has DUBAI POET improved past him, even if they’ve all trained on?

Not a race I’d even consider getting involved in unless the market screams out the name of one so for Podcast purposes I’ll go with the jolly

SEAN – A decent looking Listed contest over a mile to start proceedings this afternoon and one where I am hoping for a big showing from the Andrew Balding trained Imperial Fighter, the class act in this field but having his first start on an all-weather surface. Beaten two lengths by 2000 Guineas hopeful Coroebus at Newmarket in the Autumn Stakes, he rounded off last season with a two and a half-length fifth to Luxembourg in the Group One Futurity Stakes at Doncaster, and the winner is the 5/2 favourite for the Epsom Derby. The son of The Gurkha certainly has the chance to frank the form of some inspirational sorts this afternoon, and as long as he is fit enough to do himself justice, it is hard to look elsewhere for the winner.   

RON – IMPERIAL FIGHTER

SEAN – IMPERIAL FIGHTER

NEWCASTLE 2-00

RON – I’ve seven previous running’s of this and the evidence, limited though it is, suggests we want to be working with a five of six year olds, trading front four on the tissue (five of those seven winners were), and that suggests we bet either MY OBERON, or AMILCAR.

The draw held by previous winners, five drawn six or higher, suggests MY OBERON and I’ll go down that road.

SEAN – Why we have two races over a mile in a row is beyond, me but this is the grandly titled All-Weather Mile Championships and it looks like it could be a race for favourite backers. My Oberon was last seen coming home sixth to dead heaters Lord North and Panthalassa in the Group One Dubai Turf, picking up £74,000 for doing so. He had returned to action for 2022 with a win at Southwell over a mile and isn’t up against anything of Lord North’s standard here making him the one I want to be on. French raider Fort Payne looks interesting for those looking for an each-way alternative.

RON – MY OBERON

SEAN – MY OBERON

NEWCASTLE 2-35

RON – Again, we’ve only been running these races for seven seasons but with five of those seven races being won by horses aged six, or older, and most definitely a position first three on the tissue a “must have”, I must run with the current favourite EJTILAAB.

Three of the last four winners arrived for this having won last time out and the 9/2 bearing in mind those stats, suggest he’s a solid 20/80.

SEAN – Six furlongs next for the All-Weather Sprint Championships and a high draw is seen as being advantageous here.  Once again, the French seem overpriced to me and l would not put anyone off a little each way bet on Bouttemont who won a shade cleverly last time out and ought to strip even fitter here, but even at the forecast 11/2 I am all over Ejtilaab. Not beaten far in a couple of Group Three contests at Meydan, he returned to these shores with a very easy win at Kempton when he made all the running, and if he remains at that level, he should take all the beating here.

RON  – EJTILAAB – 20/80

SEAN – EJTILAAB – E.W.

NEWCASTLE 3-10

RON – I guarantee you, a three year old, carrying 9st 5lb wins this and as all four favourites have taken the previous four running’s of this race, I could not look at anything other than EL CABALLO.

A winner of his last four starts, the highest rated, officially, in the line up, we know he has trained on, having won over course and distance in February, and again at Lingfield on the 5th of March, he looks rock solid.

SEAN – Six furlongs again only this time we are restricted to three-year-olds, and although I agree that El Caballo is the one to beat, I can’t just keep going for the favourites. If I am reading the race correctly, there is an awful lot of early pace in this field, with the jolly a confirmed front-runner for starters, and I am hoping that if they go off too fast as seems likely, something will come from off the pace to pick them off late on. The likeliest to do just that seems to me to be Tiber Flow, the William Haggas trained son of Caravaggio who arrives here unbeaten. Last time out he started slowly before running on to get up over a furlong further at Southwell and if they do start to fold at the head of affairs, he may well make the most of the opportunity and make it four wins in a row.

RON – EL CABALLO

SEAN – TIBER FLOW

NEWCASTLE 3-45

RON – Back to there having been seven previous running’s of a race and with four year olds having won six of them, no prizes for guessing I’m looking for a four year old!

Last year George Boughey won this with a 25/1 shot and he’s 1-1 now with his runners in this race and tomorrow saddles DUBAI LADY….40/1 if you fancy lightning might strike twice??

I’m going to suggest AROUSING, trained by Haggas. He has sent four for this in previous years, won with one, placed with two others.

He has plenty to find with the likes of the favourite HIGHFIELD PRINCESS but favourites have a poor record in this, just one win to date.

Interestingly, four of the seven winners arrived for this having failed to win or place last time out and the Haggas filly fits that bill, too.

SEAN – The Fillies And Mares Championship comes next over seven furlongs and make no mistake, this is a specialist distance, testing some of the sprinter’s stamina, yet too fast for some of the true milers. I will start by saying this is not a race I like the look of at all, and to be brutally honest, I doubt I have a bet, but it is a decent race and I need to at least draw some kind of conclusion. Arousing has her own ideas and is inclined to throw races away now and then, but she has the ability to take this if she stays on the straight and narrow, while International Angel has won seven times over this trip, the latest over C&D in late February, but didn’t run her race when seventh last time out with no obvious explanation forthcoming. She could bounce back to form and put this to bed – or not – and that is the reason why my wallet will be remaining firmly closed.

RON – AROUSING – 20/80

SEAN – INTERNATIONALANGEL

NEWCASTLE 4-15

RON – Horses aged five or older have dominated to date and for sure, you want to be front three on the tissue because six of those previous seven winners have been.

Favourites won two of the first three running’s but they’ve only placed twice in the last four so I’m looking at one of EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS or RAINBOW DREAMER for a 20/80.

I cannot find anything older than eight having won this yet and with the Twiston-Davies runner EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS an eight year old and arriving having won his last two races, I’m going to plump for his to at least land my “80”

SEAN – Unsurprisingly the All-Weather Marathon Championships is raced over two miles plus, and once again the head of the market seems likely to provide the better horses with the bigger chances. Earlofthecotswolds was sorely tempting I will admit, while Sleeping Lion has a pound in hand on official ratings, but I am thinking outside the box and will be backing Moliwood each way at a big price. She does have a bit to find with some of these on recent form, but I get the feeling she is the out and out stayer in this field and if I am correct, she can run them down late on to grab a place at least.    

RON – EARLOFTHECOTSWOLDS – 20/80

SEAN – MOLIWOOD – E.W.

NEWCASTLE 4-45

RON – I’ll keep this very simple. We have just six runners. They all carry 9st 5lb.

The tissue though is the best guide, bar none, as to where we need to look for our winner. Six of the seven previous winners went of favourite, in the year it didn’t, the second favourite beat the favourite, into second.

I’d not be looking to take on the odds on shot TYRRHENIAN SEA….but neither would I bet odds on, given that losing favourite went off 1/3!

SEAN – We round off the card with the Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships, and with over £100,000 to the winner and don’t you just hate it when you end with an odds-on favourite? Tyrrhenian Sea lost his unbeaten record last time out when only fourth at Kempton, but he has to do down as one of the unluckiest losers of the year. Trapped on the trial with no way out he looked as if he may have won with a clear run (you can never be sure), and if he gets a clear passage as he should win a frankly disappointing six horse field, then he may well get back to winning ways.

RON – TYRRHENIAN SEA

SEAN – TYRRHENIAN SEA

SATURDAY

NEWBURY 1-50

RON – I love Newbury. When it comes to finding winners, I reckon that over the years this place has provided me with more profit that any other racecourse.

Four-year-olds absolutely dominate this race nowadays. They have produced five of the last nine winners, and four of the last five so I’m not looking at anything else.

In the last six year the winner has only been outside the front two on the tissue once….and that winner that blew that trend, was sitting third favourite.

The only four year old in the top three on the tissue as I type is STOWELL, trained by John and Thady Gosden, and he has been rock solid on 5/1 since the tissues were formed whist two others around that area in the market, ILARAAB and MAX VEGA, have eased.

I’ll go 20/80 the Gosden runner purely based on age and market position.

SEAN – The John Porter Stakes has seen some high-class winners in the past and is an event that has been farmed by the bigger yards in recent years, with Sir Michael Stoute successful in 2015 and 2016, and William Haggas responsible for Al Aasy last season. This year the stable relies on Ilaraab, a five-year-old son of Wootton Bassett who was last seen taking the St Simon Stakes over C&D by a length last October. He should go well, but I prefer the chances of Thunderous here, with the Johnston horses starting to show signs that they are hitting top gear. Although he failed to win last season from four starts, he was third in the Jockey Club Stakes second in the Aston Park Stakes and fourth to Wonderful Tonight in the Group Two Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, behind Broome and Hukum who would both start at odds on in this contest. Gelded over the winter and off the track for 10 months, his fitness has to be of some concern, but he has gone well fresh before and is the classiest horse in this field if he is fully wound up and ready to go.

RON – STOWELL – 20/80

SEAN – THUNDEROUS

NEWBURY 2-25

RON – Since this market was first formed, absolutely everything has drifted.

Goes with out saying a 3-y-o carrying 9st wins it, because they are all 3-y-o’s, carrying 9st so the only place I can look for my winner based on trends, would the be the market and six of the last nine winners were either favourite, or second favourite.

If that holds up then it rests between WILD BEAUTY and JUMBLY.

Charlie Appleby trains the first named, and favourite, and that yard has come out of the flat traps absolutely flying, running a staggering 78% RTF%age figure, whilst the Charlton yard, true to form, has been coming along far more slowly.

I have to run with WILD BEAUTY, who is not only rated, officially, 7lb the better horse, but arrives a Group 1 winner, winning the Natalma Stakes at Woodbine in Canada, and should have the beating of these….if she has trained on.

SEAN – The Fred Darling used to be seen as a major 1000 Guineas trial but with so many of the bigger yards’ better horses going to Newmarket unraced at three, its importance has diminished a little in my eyes. Charlie Appleby has his horses in great form since their returns from Dubai and Wild Beauty is certainly a worthy favourite with William Buick in the saddle. She may prove unbeatable here, but with no evidence yet that she has trained on I will take an each way chance on Miss Carol Ann at a bigger price. A debut winner at Newmarket over this trip by an easy two lengths, she was then sent here for the Radley Stakes where she was sent off the 9/4 joint favourite – and trailed home 20 lengths off winner Jubbly, who is also in the field. The softer ground was her downfall that day according to her trainer, and on a faster surface today (the faster the better), she may well reverse that form, and pick up first prize.

RON – WILD BEAUTY

SEAN – MISS CAROL ANN – E.W

NEWBURY 3-00

RON – The Greenham…we had a runner in this back in 2013….went off the 50/1 outsider and came last….but at least we can say we’ve raced in Group 3 company, as owners!

Another race where aia state the obvious…3-y-o, carrying 9-0st and again, all I have to point me in the direction of the winner is the market place and seven of the last nine winners were yet again, front two on the tissue, including the odds on shot, OLYMPIC GLORY, who won it the year we got put in our place!

Hannon trained that one. He also trained the winner in 2017, and again last year. This year he saddles GUBBASS, who will be ridden by Ryan Moore. This horse won the Super Sprint here in July last year and ran perfectly respectably in Group 1 & 2 company afterwards.

Back in Group 3 on Saturday he might be competitive.

Hannon also saddles LUSAIL, rated 5lb superior to GUBBASS and ridden by the jockey that rode last years winner, Pat Dobbs.

This horse was winning at a higher level last season and should…if he has trained on….prove the best of the Hannon pair.

I don’t have a tissue but if that horse I front two in the market on the day, he’s my selection.

SEAN – The colts equivalent of the Fred Darling, the Greenham Stakes is also run over seven furlongs and is usually won by a decent sort – if not a 2000 Guineas winner. I would be surprised if the 2022 winner was lining up here either, but we do have some decent colts, headed by the Richard Fahey trained Perfect Power. The winner of four of his five starts to date, including the Darley Prix Morny at Deauville, and the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket, both Group One contests, I note that Christophe Soumillon travels to Newbury to ride, and I am hoping that is a huge clue to just how good he is and how strongly he is fancied here. If you are looking for an alternative at a bigger price, Stan Moore thinks the world of The Wizard Of Eye, and he should do better after his seasonal return in a very valuable race on the dirt in Saudi Arabia in their Derby despite only coming home in seventh – he should be a lot happier back on the turf and could surprise a few of these.

RON – LUSAIL

SEAN – PERFECT POWER

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