The Blog – 27/04/22

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I needed that few days away….could easily have done with two weeks but such is the nature of this beast, it’s very rarely going to happen.

I banned myself from all things racing for the five days we were away, left the laptop in my office so that when I got up each morning to sort the dogs out, I could not be tempted into doing “something”.

My body clock is now permanently set to go off at just before 5-00am and so I was up and about as normal but it was coffee, then into the garden with them. No desk, no office, which usually sucks me in and refuses to let me out!

It gave me time for thinking without the distraction of Betfair markets blinking at me and I’ve come to a few conclusions I’ll share with you during the summer.

It was good getting back into the office yesterday afyernoon and dipping my toe back into ratings….the 9/1 winner in my top two rated (they really are “performing”). I prepped today’s racing, which is extremely light on rated races, and then decided to look back to how Class 6 races have worked out since April 1st. To close of play yesterday we’d had 47 of them.

They have produced 10 winning favourites but 17 of those 47 winners were priced 50/1, 40/1, 33/1, 33/1, 33/1, 22/1, 22/1, 20/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 12/1, 11/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 10/1….so they are anything but easy to find!

Only one of those 47 races consisted of a single figure field (nine went to post for a two mile marathon), so my constant banging on about their being far to many bad horses in training has been well and truly rubber stamnped!

Just to add, 22 of the favourites in those 47 races were unplaced.

Musselburgh today is dire. Five of the seven races are Class 6, the other two Class 5, one of which is a four runner maiden event. This meeting also bucks the trend of Class 6 double figure fields, too….6, 12, 12, 7, and 9 runners. That’ll be a “distance” thing. I’m still seeing 36 horses making a round trip of 300 miles or more to race there though, although one of them did run at Ayr yesterday. I think if I owned a Class 6 runner and my trainer told me I’d be facing a diesel bill of £300 to race up there, I’d tell him to stick local!

I’m now ready for five months of madness, as we get racing from midday to sunset and when we have evening meetings midweek I’ll be putting the afternoon racing (ratings/OMMS), in the early Newsletter, I’ll cover the evening racing and updates in the 11-30am Newsletter and in the afternoon look to update the evening market movers for you.

FAHEY JUVENILES

  • THE RIDLER – ran fourth on debut, finishing off his race well and was never nearer to the winner than at the finish. Keep him in your trackers and back next time out.
  • GINCIDENT – drifted from an opening 2/1 > 11/4 and ran green. Kept on well enough in the final furlong without ever looking like winning. I’d watch the markets next time this horse races as he’ll come on a lot for this debut run.
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