This week Ron and Sean natter about racecourse fights and the crazy idea of beer vending machines, they look at whether the NH season goes on to long and to the detriment of good horses, then discuss eight races being run at Newmarket tomorrow and Saturday, with the 2000Gns the highlight.
Ron nailed a lovely winner of this in KAMEKO two years ago….can he repeat the dose?
Ron’s side of the conversation in text form, with Sean’s selections added:
Only four runners and that will make for a false pace. Horses will over race early and have nothing left for when the race starts.
Three years olds, all carrying 9st and it’s NATIONS PRIDE I’d be punting.
He currently trades the even money favourite and we’ve had five of the last 10 winners going off favourite.
He also won last time out, as did SUBASTAR, who is very highly rated by his trainer Roger Varian. He took this race in 2019 with a once raced horse and I was so tempted to put this one up but you look at Appleby’s RTF %AGE figure right now – 87% – which is stunning….and I can only suggest a straight win punt, with an Exacta the two named.
RON – NATIONS PRIDE (Exacta with SUBASTAR)
SEAN – SUBASTAR
This feels like a weak renewal of this race
Just five going to post here and another all three year old event, and another Appleby favourite that, if the trends holds up, should be winning, because the last five favourites have won this, and six of the last nine.
NOBLE TRUTH is currently around the 11/8 mark but Appleby has saddled three for this previously and only placed with one of them.
Hannon is the trainer to follow here and he sends GUBBASS, currently second favourite @ 5/2.
Six horses have gone from that yard to contest this race, they’ve won two, placed with another. If GUBBASS was trading favourite I’d be all excited and I’m not going to sound at all clever suggesting one of them will win tomorrow. I’ll suggest a reverse CSF and we’ll see what happens.
RON – Reverse CSF – NOBLE TRUTH/GUBBASS
SEAN – RIBHY
Four year olds have absolutely owned this in recent years. They have won the last five and seven of the last nine running’s so that’s what I’m working with. That only rules out two, but it rules them out which is a help of sorts.
Market position is where I go next because they all carry 9st and with five of the last nine winners (and the last three), all in the front two on the tissue, I’m thinking one of SAVE A FOREST or BARTAZELLA wins it.
I have to row in with SAVE A FOREST simply because Varian’s record with runners in this race is vastly superior to that of Haggas, who trains BARTAZELLA.
Haggas has sent four for this race in previous years, placed with three of them.
Varian has sent two, won with one, placed with the other.
SAVE A FOREST for me.
RON – SAVE A FOREST
SEAN – BARTAZELLA
Well I never….another Appleby trained favourite. I did say to you last week that when we are doing Podcasts, I’ll just simply say whatever Godolphin has entered will be my selection because they are in blindingly good form this season
It’s 4/9 YIBIR, who should have won the Dubai Sheema Classic in March, did win the Breeders Cup Turf at Del Mar last November and if form means anything, that 4/9 is pure gold.
No point looking for anything to beat him here. He’s the better horse on official ratings by nearly a stone and will win.
RON – YIBIR
SEAN – YIBIR
I’d love to know what’s going on. Only seven runners here and the last five running’s have seen no field smaller than 12 runners, and in 2017 we had 17 going to post.
I’m sure it’s a sign we have far to much racing.
From a trends angle, I can only suggest FLOTUS as my selection here. I’m not liking the fact the horse makes seasonal debut but she’s a 3-y-o and they have won the last four running’s, and six of the last nine. She’s the only runner of that age grouping and if she trades front two on the tissue, then a straight win punt will be the advice.
She ran a belter to finish a length second to TENEBRISM in last years Cheveley Park and that filly is currently 11/4 to win the 1000Gns on Sunday.
RON – FLOTUS
SEAN – FLOTUS
Well I never did….a race the Boys In Blue have nothing entered!
Trends say a three or four year old wins it and that trend will stay strong as nothing older than four turns out.
I’m really liking the 3-y-o’s stats….only seven have tried to win this, three have pulled it off and two of the last three winners were of that age group.
Four of the last five winners were located front two on the tissue and right now they are the four year old and favourite, PRIMO BACIO, and the three year old ZANBAQ.
I’m going with ZANBAQ, trained by Roger Varian and a winner of her only race to date.
That was over seven furlongs on an all weather track and Varian reckons she’ll be suited by a mile this term.
She cost £450,000 as a yearling and they’ll want some of that back, and some Black type, too.
ZANBAQ for me.
RON – ZANBAQ
SEAN – BASHKIROVA E.W.
I advised the members recently of a huge punt going on regarding TWILIGHT CALLS who went in @ 6/5 over course and distance April 14th and I can tell you now, they are piling in again….opened 9/2, now 5/2 and clear favourite to win this on Saturday.
Trends tell me:
- You need to be a four year old….tick
- You need to be carrying 9st+….tick
- You need to be front three on the tissue (favourites have won four and placed in two of the last 10 running’s)….tick
- You need to be arriving having won or placed last time out as seven of the last 10 winners did so….tick
TWILIGHT CALLS wins if trends are right and if the market is right.
RON – TWILIGHT CALLS
SEAN – TWILIGHT CALLS
The 2000Gns and recently a graveyard for the fancied runners as the last two winners went in priced 10/1 and 16/1.
As we know, it’ll be won by a three year old carrying 9st exactly but that horse will be (based on the last 10 years trends), first two on the tissue, and arriving having won last time out. Even those big priced winners arrived with a 1 next to their names.
The two qualifiers are trained by Appleby (he could have a stunning few days!), but he has only had three placed horses from eight previous entrants.
It does look his year though however, I’m going for COROEBUS, who I remember was smashed off the boards on debut, won easily, then looked to be going to win very easily second time out, but ran green as grass, getting collared close home but the horse that then finished last of eight to LUXEMBOURG in the Futurity.
Strict formlines therefore suggest LUXEMBOURG should see off my selection and the fact he’s unbeaten, trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has won five of the last 10 of these races, and has been supported 6/1 > 9/2 in recent days suggests I’ve banged my head in picking the Appleby second string but I remember watching that race he got beat in and thinking what a horse he looked.
COROEBUS subsequently bolted up in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes and I believe he’s a rock solid 20/80.
RON – COROEBUS 20/80
SEAN – NATIVE TRAIL
3 – WANEES – 7/1 > 11/2 – WON 10/3
2 – LIVE IN THE DREAM – 16/1 > 9/1 – WON 13/2
1 – MUCUNA – 50/1 > 12/1 – WON 16/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – TWILIGHT CALLS (Newmarket 3-00, Saturday)
SEAN – FLOTUS & NATIVE TRAIL – WIN DOUBLE