Shame on the bookmaker who overexposed himself and opted not to honour the bet struck and, shame on the people at Windsor who thought they could fleece spectators for an extra £7 each so that they could see the horses before the race but had that bright idea blow up in their faces!
We’ve looked at the racing this week and below you have the text of my Podcast ramblings, with Sean’s selections introduced.
Best of luck this weekend!
Nine 3-y-o’s, all carrying 9st 2lb and if we’ve learned anything in the first two weeks of the core season it’s not to trust explicitly, juvenile form.
So we basically bet blind in such races and hope the trends or markets point us in the direction of the winners.
Given the age group/weight situation here all I can do, working as I do, is trust the market trends hold up. If they do, I’m looking for a horses in the front two on the tissue which, right now, would be:
- TIBER FLOW
The first named trades favourite and arrives having had four runs, all on the sand and I have not got a baldy clue as to whether or not he’ll handle turf as well as an all weather surface.
I’d be happy dutching this pair but if I had to play one solo it would have to be EHRAZ. Consistent, placed in three of his four career starts to date, winning at Ascot over this trip last July and on seasonal debut ran a decent enough race in a Group 3, when beaten by the horse that ran second in last years Norfolk Stakes, GO BEARS GO.
Never in a month o f Sundays would this be a race I’d get heavily involved in but I’ll dutch that pair to make a profit….if one of them wins it.
RON – DUTCH – TIBER FLOW/EHRAZ
SEAN – CADAMOSTO E.W.
Exactly the same scenario here but just seven go to post and we’ve a short priced favourite in OTTOMAN FLEET, who went off a short priced favourite to beat a stable companion on debut….but didn’t.
The winner of that race was used as the hare for WALK OF STARS last weekend, when being ridden like a quarter horse in the Derby Trial at Lingfield. It didn’t work because the favourite got beaten by the Coolmore runner UNITED NATIONS.
If trends run as usual then OTTOMAN FLEET wins as the favourite has won this race for the last four years on the trot, and in seven of the last 10.
I couldn’t back against it but neither would I lump on.
RON – OTTOMAN FLEET
SEAN – GROUNDBREAKER
Group 3, nearly £57k to the winner and just six going to post. At least it is an all aged competition but you wouldn’t want to be betting against a four or five year old winning it (not least because five of the six are aged four or five), as eight of the last 10 winners were of those ages and that includes the last six winners, too.
Favourites have won five of the last six running’s of this, the last three going off odds on….we wont have an odds on shot here tomorrow!
You will need to be working with the front pair on the tissue again because trends tell me so. They have taken seven of the last 10 renewals of this race and so again I’d suggest dutching:
- FOXES TALES
Looking for a solo play I’d have to suggest FOXES TALES. He arrives having raced already and the last four winners all arrived having made seasonal debut.
The race is actually as tight as a drum and any of the six could win it but I’ll go with FOXES TALES.
RON – FOXES TALES
SEAN – ILARAAB
I smiled when you said you had included a handicap, rubber my hands, got prepped up…then grimaced….it’s an all 3-y-o affair and these races are like walking across a minefield without a map!
Most have only been seen three times, now have an official mark, and will be allowed to run on merit, as opposed to just going for three consecutive days out.
So what do trends make of it because Ratings would simply be blown out of the water here.
First, weight ranges. In the nine times this has been run, we’ve seen horses winning carrying 8st 2lb to 9st 7lb but if I was going to point at a dominant-ish range I’d say 8st 10lb to 9st 5lb and, from a market perspective, I’d want nothing trading longer than 8/1 as only a pair of winners were priced bigger.
I’m also looking for a horse that won or placed last time out as six of those last nine winners had done so, and arriving not having had more than three runs because three of the last four winners fit that criteria.
That gives me two to look at:
- SURREY MIST
At 7/2 and 9/2 respectively as I speak, that’s a dutch worth playing but for those liking a 20/80 then you run with ISRAR who will most likely go off favourite and with four of the last eight of those winning and seven of the nine winning or placing, you’d be confident of making a profit off the place play.
RON – ISRAAR – 20/80
SEAN – LA PUGLA E.W.
The Lockinge and I imagine their will be very long faces off the track as well as on it, if BAAEED is beaten.
He has looked a superstar since we first clapped eyes on him and he beat last years winner of this in the QEII Stakes in October, that being the only defeat suffered by PALACE PIER in 2021.
Six of the last nine favourites have won this race, including three of the last four and I cannot see any of these even getting close enough to breath on BAAEED.
He has to give 3lb to the current second favourite MOTHER EARTH and is rated 11lb her superior, he races off level weights with the third favourite, REAL WORLD, and is officially 7lb better than that one.
BAAEED wins it if he turns out with a leg in each corner.
RON – BAAEED
SEAN – BAAEED
Six three year olds going over a marathon trip of 13 furlongs and the most likely favourite, ARBUTUS, a winner of his only race to date….which was over course and distance.
They are all extremely lightly raced and as such trying to work this out is akin to chucking dice up a craps table and hoping for snake eyes but for Podcast purposes, I’ll go with the Aiden O’Brien trained CD winner ARBUTUS.
RON – ARBUTUS
SEAN – CELADOR E.W.
It’s simply that time of year when the Listed races and better are contested by three year olds and you and I are groping in the dark, hoping we don’t pick up something nasty and guessing right!
Seven three year olds head to post here and we’ve three clear on the tissue, NASHWA, who is around 15/8, BOUQUET at something like 5/2, and MUKADDAMAH 7/2….it’s then 10/1 bar so, with six of the last eight running’s going to horses in the first two on the tissue, it’s most likely our winner is one of NASHWA, or BOUQUET.
Both are trained by Gosden, who has sent three for this previously and only managed to get one in the frame.
They have Frankie on board the second favourite strangely enough with Hollie Doyle on NASHWA. She has though, ridden this horse in both its races so far and bolted in by six lengths on it at Haydock back in April.
The horse has gone off favourite both times, will do so again tomorrow, and I’m thinking Hollie has another 10% coming her way.
RON – NASHWA
SEAN – NASHWA
- KIHAVAH – 5/1 > 10/3 – WON 7/2
- BRANDY MCQUEEN – 14/1 > 9/1 – WON 6/1
- CANDY KITCHEN – 20/1 > 7/1 – WON 9/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – ISRAAR, BAAEED, NASHWA – TREBLE
SEAN – LA PUGLA E.W.