Some very nice winners in the OMM’s section yesterday but the result that pleased me most was the win of NIETZSCHE’S STAR in the Lingfield 6-15pm race.
I am constantly looking for new ways of finding profit for you because as pro punter Mark Holder said in a recent interview, “I could sit here now and write a list of methods that I think give me an edge. In doing so, they might be of some assistance to the reader, but only for a very short time. These only work because they are under-bet; in other words, they represent value. Once any approach is deemed as being profitable by the majority, it goes from under-bet to over-bet. In other words, from profitable to non-profitable”
This season I opted to look at horses racing first time out since a gelding operation. If you backed them all, you would be in the poor house very rapidly because only 12% of them win. You would have a negative “profit on investment” of -24.7% in the last year.
However, we know the markets tell a tale every single day and so, by combining those two things, we may discover a new edge to work with.
Yesterday I made sure you were aware of the mover for that horse and said, “One of the geldings has been very well supported since the first newsletter went out and looks “expected”.
(MMM) – 6-15 – NIETZSCHE’S STAR – WON 11/2
Of course they will not all win. As I say above, only 12% racing first time after the snip do, but yesterday I highlighted three in that section and we had another winner in ELSALS @ 2/1
I have also introduced the RTF %AGE figures for you. I suggested, when I first posted them up, that we look for trainers having a 50% or higher RTF and those concentrating on those yesterday will have seen this race/result:
YORK 2-55 (Grade 1)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – L-M-H
(OMM), §* – JAWWAAL….+11 (49%)
§* – COPPER KNIGHT….+5 (36%)
§* – LOOK OUT LOUIS….+1 (43%)
§* – SIR TITUS….-3 (49%)
§ – ALLIGATOR ALLEY….-2 (44%)
* – SUNDAY SOVEREIGN….-7 (36%)
* – ZARGUN….-8 (42%)
§ – VENTUROUS….-10 (43%)
(OMM), §* – NIGHT ON EARTH….-15 (21%)
(D) – ILLUSIONIST….-23 (53%) – WON 33/1
§ – SHOWALONG….-32 (36%)
(D), § – LIPSINK….-40 (28%)
§ – EY UP IT’S MAGGIE….-40 (50%)
(OMM), T – ATALIS BAY….-40 (28%) – NR
Grant Tuer had the highest RTF%AGE figure (53%), of any trainer with a horse in that race and in the only Rated race at Musselburgh yesterday, we saw this:
MUSSELBURGH 3-38 (Grade 1)
PERCEIVED DRAW BIAS – NONE
(D), * – MI CAPRICHO….+9 (46%)
* – TOMMY G….+9 (57%) – WON 12/1
T* – HAYADH….+2 (57%)
(D), W2 – SIMPLE STAR….-20 (30%)
(D), T – ALPHA CRU….-27 (44%)
ALPINE SIERRA….-28 (46%)
(D), T – WAR DEFENDER….-40 (36%)
(D), TILSITT….-40 (47%)
(OMM/BRF), T – VINDOBALA….-40 (11%)
Jim Goldie had the joint highest RTF%AGE figure (57%), and his horse went in @ 12/1 and he had a treble at the meeting.
There are so many ways to skin this cat but most punters simply do not (and will never), have the time to cover every base as that is called “betting for a living”. I would be amazed if more than 2% of you reading this do that.
A member e-mailed me on Friday to ask how best to work with the information I provide each day. When I get back to my office next week I’ll answer that question in a separate Newsletter because as I always say, if one person is asking, another is always thinking of doing so.