This week Ron and Sean look at why so many “gambles” are being attempted almost daily, discuss why Lingfield could…or couldn’t….transfer their abandoned turf races to their all weather track and chat about Lester Piggott.
All the Epsom winners, too!
A quarter of a million pounds in prize money and just six going to post….and people ask what is wrong with horse racing today!
Horses aged five and upwards usually dominate this, although we have had a pair of four-year-olds going in, in the last four years, including last years winner, PYLEDRIVER, who will go off favourite to follow up tomorrow. Five-year-olds have actually won six of the last 10, an also five of the last seven.
The favourite has won or come second in this in nine of those last 10 running’s I work with so he’s Placepot banker material if that stat holds up.
They all go off 9st 2lb so when looking for a trends-based winner, I’m looking for a five-year-old, front two on the tissue and the only qualifier is PYLEDRIVER.
I’m not happy with Frankie being up because these days he’s not one for riding a horse out these days and if it cannot win, he drops his hands….Placepot punters, you have been warned.
I have to put this horse up though, as he fits:
RON – PYLEDRIVER
SEAN – PYLEDRIVER
Three year olds carrying 9st so all I have to work with are the markets.
Officially TUESDAY only becomes a 3-y-o tomorrow because she was foaled on the 3rd of June 2019 so to have achieved what she has done to date is superb but the facts are, you need to be arriving here a winner (six of the last 10 winners did, as have the last three winners, and four of the last five).
Seven of the last eight winners were also front four on the tissue and the only two qualifiers I have are:
- EMILY UPJOHN
The head of the market indicates the strength of the two yards that have dominated this race recently. Gosden trains both of that pair, O’Brien trains the next two on the tissue and they have won the last five running’s of this race between them, O’Brien taking three of the last four.
I imagine Frankie has been put up on the one considered the best and will run with EMILY UPJOHN but Hollie Doyle has ridden NASHWA on all three racecourse appearances. She was beaten on debut, at Newmarket and for that reason I’m happy to row in with the jolly.
RON – EMILY UPJOHN
SEAN – EMILY UPJOHN
Lightly raced three-year-olds are not my idea of a betting medium and add into the equation that five of the seven runners have never raced on the ground as currently described, and one of the two that have finished last of four on it, you have all the ingredients of a potential punting disaster.
So much guesswork is involved in these races but hopefully trends and stats give us a clue or two.
Eight of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, so I’m looking at one of:
- DAWN OF LIBERATION
- EVER GIVEN
Only one of the last five winners of this arrived having won last time out and, six of the last 10 winners arrived having failed to even place last time they were seen so on that score I have to row in with EVER GIVEN who is the horse with winning form on good to soft (2-3 on it).
He was beaten nine lengths in a Haydock Group 2 last time out, going off 5/1 to win that day and he’ll find Listed class more his level.
I’d certainly fancy him @ 3/1 more than I would OSCULA @ 7/4. He will want the ground to dry out a bit….it might and you should always check this out tomorrow….and the last time we aw him he was beaten 103 lengths last of 14 in Riyadh at Group 3 level. He has winning form here and the last three favourites have obliged but I’ll go with the one selected because he has his ground at the moment. If that changes, I’m out.
RON – EVER GIVEN
SEAN – OSCULA
This market has been all about BASHKIROVA since it opened, 7/2 > 7/4 before easing back to 9/4. Solid on 3/1 and second favourite is POTAPOVA, who runs in the same colours.
Everything behind them on the tissue is easy to back, Balding’s MAJESTIC GLORY for instance 11/1 > 8/1.
Not a lot in this from an age perspective, 3-y-o’s winning three, 4-y-o’s winning four and 5+ taking three but it’s the 4-y-o’s I’m most interested in because they have taken three of the last five running’s.
I’d not be interested in anything carrying less than 9st because only two winners have and the last came back in 2016.
If you are sited outside the front four on the tissue your chances are seriously hampered as the only one in the last decade to pull that off was in 2015.
If I put that lot into the blender, whizz it for a few seconds, then add a drop of the fact only one of the last 10 winners of this arrived having won last time out then I’m looking to bet one of the Cheveley Park pair.
I’ve looked back at the draw the last 10 winners have come from and nothing higher than stall eight has succeeded in the last decade so it has to be BASHKIROVA who breaks from stall two, whilst POTAPOVA has the nine berth, which would appear to be ugly!
RON – BASHKIROVA
SEAN – MRS FITHERBERT E.W.
I spy, with my little eye, something beginning with the letter “M” winning this.
MODERN NEWS, MUTASAABEQ and MEGALLEN sit front three on the tissue and eight of the last 10 winners did so.
The favourite has only finished out of the front two twice so MODERN NEWS looks another Placepot banker.
Last year we had an anomaly in OH THIS IS US winning @ 18/1 and generally you would be looking to horses priced 5/1 or shorter as the only other winner bigger than that was FRENCH NAVY, who won @ 13/2 back in 2014 so on that basis it’s between MODERN NEWS and MUTASAABEQ.
I have to go with MODERN NEWS as Charlie Appleby has his still flying along, a lovely 64% RTF figure, whilst Charles Hills is struggling a tad right now, his RTF%age of 35% indicative of a yard looking for form, as opposed to being in form.
RON – MODERN NEWS
SEAN – ZAKOUSKI E.W.
Epsom 3.45pm (handicap)
I will produce Ratings for this but I think I should start by saying it’s mission impossible if recent trends hold up.
The last 10 winners of this returned 50/1, 5/1, 9/1, 16/1, 11/1, 25/1, 12/1, 33/1 and 25/1
I use the phrase, “it’s like trying to juggle soot”, a lot these days and I’m using it again here.
As much as I’m a fan of Adam West and as impressive as LIVE IN THE DREAM was last time out, I cannot have a 3-y-o. Only five have tried to win this in the last 10 years and only one hit the frame.
We want to be working with horses aged five, six and seven. We want to be working with horses outside the front six on the tissue, Only two inside that figure have won in the last 10 years.
We want a horse that finished outside the front four last time out, too. The last five winners arrived having finished 8, 9, 1, 9, 6 on their latest racecourse appearance.
So, five, six or seven, outside the front six on the tissue, having finished outside the front six last time out…and, I’ll add not carrying more than 9st as only two of the last 10 winners pulled that off.
- LIVE IN THE MOMENT
- MID WINSTER
- A SURE WELCOME
To narrow this down to a sensible dutch I’m taking out anything drawn low. Five of the last seven winners were drawn 19, 14, 17, 16 and 13 so any of those above drawn lower than 13 gets hooked and binned here:
- THEGREATESTSHOWMAN – 25/1 > 16/1
- MID WINSTER – 14/1 > 20/1
- A SURE WELCOME – 25/1 >33/1
Those looking for one to play a 20/80 might best use THEGREATESTSHOWMAN who has been supported since this market opened and for Podcast purposes I’ll suggest that one for my 20/80
RON – THEGREATESTSHOWMAN – 20/80
SEAN – TONE THE BARONE E.W.
Now we come to the most overrated race on planet Earth.
Anyone that listened to last years Podcast, when we discussed this knows my feeling about the race and yet again last year we had another longshot winning, another winner that has only won one race since, and the last five winners of this race have now returned 40/1, 16/1, 13/2, 25/1 and 16/1.
Funny thing is, they’ve been trained by the two blokes you expect to be winning it, Aiden O’Brien and Charlie Appleby so maybe the best way in is to look for an Appleby horse trading 16/1 (those two listed above were his), and the closest to those odds right now is WALK OF STARS @ 18/1.
He still looked green as grass at Lingfield
He will be ridden by James Doyle, who has been winning the Classics this year so I’ll have a joke sized 20/80 for Podcast purposes.
One winking at me is MASEKELA. Balding’s horse ran NATIVE TRAIL to a short head as a juvenile and the 80/1 is fine for a place play, if you think this massive step up in trip is what he wants. His form at shorter makes him anything but an 80/1 shot!
None of the O’Brien runners has a jockey allocated yet but I’ll be surprised if STONE AGE hasn’t got Moore’s backside in the saddle.
RON – WALK OF STARS & MASEKELA – 2 X 20/80’s to minute stakes!
SEAN – STONE AGE
- CAPE HELLES – 50/1 > 16/1 – WON 17/2
- PRIORS DELL – 20/1 > 10/1 – WON 10/1
- LIAMARTY DREAMS – 25/1 > 12/1 – WON 12/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – BASHRIKOVA & MODERN NEWS (DOUBLE) SEAN – MRS FITZHERBERT E.W.