You do have to question the sanity of whoever suggested a firework display just before the Derby but you also have to question the form of the Derby itself, as the winner beat a horse by less than three lengths, that had been beaten seven lengths in a Listed race previously!
Lots covered including the stupidity of the bookmakers limiting a punter to £200 per month when he’s absolutely Brewstered!
The text of my side of the conversation below, with Sean’s selections added:
Obviously, with it being Royal Ascot next week, we are very light on racing this weekend and it’s the now all too familiar case of a small field when we have good prize money up for grabs, just six running for this £34k first prize.
None of these arrives in winning form, but then four of the last five winners fitted that profile and I’m looking for a 5+ year old trading front two on the tissue because if I’d done that in the last 10 years, I would have bet the winner six of those 10 races.
Thing is, the front two on the tissue here are 4-y-o’s and only one of that age group has been successful and I feel like I’m hovering over something I usually have a bag for when walking the dogs.
I might….might….have a small 20/80 to three places BELL ROCK. His trainer is in belting form with a near 60% RTF%age figure and in the last 10 years Balding has sent three to contest this race and won it with two of them.
It’s very much a weekend for keeping your Royal Ascot powder dry but if you’ve some shrapnel sitting around, chuck a bit this horse’s way.
I know he effectively must give 10lb to the favourite and probably will not do it but hey, I cannot back a 4-y-o. BRUNCH is interesting being a previous CD winner but the 4/1 is skinny.
RON – BELL ROCK – 20/80
SEAN – MOHAAFETH
10.50pm Belmont Park (New York)
I had to laugh! Here’s me giving our racing pelters for small fields chasing big pots and here we have a six runner field racing for a first prize of £305,556
I can only find two previous running’s of this race, both of which have been won by MEAN MARY, who went off the jolly on each occasion.
Tomorrow night they go odds on ROUGIR, who last year Group 1 Prix de l’Opera when trained by Cedric Mossi. She was then sold for 3,000,000E TO RACE IN America after finishing seventh in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf.
Given 189 days to acclimatise she came out on May 14th and won £61k when hosing up in a Grade 3 on firm ground having looked a soft/heavy ground horse and that’s why I’d not touch odds on with a 20ft barge pole.
I’d rather have a little bet on BLEECKER STREET who runs for the same yard as the favourite. Unbeaten in six starts who knows how good she might be (maybe the trainer!), and at 9/2 is a sporting punt against the odds on shot.
RON – BLEECKER STREET – 20/80
SEAN – BLEECKER STREET – E.W.
3.20pm Chester (handicap)
Lovely, a (currently), 14 runner handicap at Chester, where we can usually rule out half the field because of the draw bias.
Two problems….all 3-y-o’s and, I’ve only got three previous running’s of this race to work with as regards trends/stats and without a doubt it’ll be the market that tells us on the day, what is expected.
We have two previous course winners in here, ROMAN DRAGON 2-4, and OUTGATE 1-1 but, as I speak, they are both 0-4 on the ground as currently described.
For Podcast purposes only….and a bit of a giggle….I’m going to suggest a 20/80 FAR AWAY THOUGHT.
Another Balding runner, he has seen fit to send three for the three previous running’s, won it with one, placed with the other two. He won the very first running of this race with BERKSHIRE ROYAL and last season his CLASSIC LORD was beaten in a photo by one of Gosden’s….only ¾ of a length separated the first four home in that one, so expect a great finish to this one!
In 2019 his LARIAT went off favourite and also finished second so, fair to say he’s targeting this race and I’ll go 20/80 FAR AWAY THOUGHT.
RON – FAR AWAY THOUGHT – 20/80
SEAN – OUTGATE – E.W.
Another six runner Listed race and another all 3-y-o event.
You simply do not look outside the front three on the tissue for your winner as that stat includes the winners in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2019, 2020 and last years winner giving that stat a polish when Marco Botti’s ATALIS BAY went in the 6/4 jolly. Six of the last 10 favourites have actually won this race and we’ve only seen two winners bigger than 5/1.
Clive Cox has a very strong favourite in CATTURA who is around the 5/4 mark right now. It is then 4/1 bar.
He has been contesting Group races for the majority of his short career to date and in April went off favourite to win the Group 3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly and finished second beaten less than a length.
He has to give a 5lb to horses that are all rated 10lb or worse inferior to him and the current third favourite is a handicapper.
I’ll be with the favourite and expect him to win cosy.
RON – CATURRA
SEAN – MITBAAHY
It really has become the norm that you see the word Listed, or Group in the race title and you know you are getting six or fewer runners to work with and that’s again the case here I’m afraid. Better than last year though, they only had four running in this!
Run over 14 furlongs, the winner of this has only been out of the front two on the tissue twice in the last 11 running’s and so I’ll concentrate on KEMARI and MANDOOB.
The first named was a beaten favourite last time out, the other runs second time following a win-op. Quality, they ain’t!
I’m going to go with KEMARI because he’s the best horse at the weights, Buick has been summoned to York to ride it and, he’s a winner over this trip….never a bad thing!
RON – KEMARI
SEAN – MANDOOB
11-44pm Belmont Park
I was looking back at the last 10 winners of this and they really do have some funky SP returns over there….138/10, 53/10, 102/10….however, I’m also seeing that even in America, the market calls the tune more often than not and three of the last four favourites have obliged, with four of the last seven coming good so I’m going to row in with the horse I put up for the Kentucky Derby, MO DONEGAL, who is currently the 5/2 joint favourite or thereabouts.
He ran a cracker in that race to finish fifth to the horse currently third best on the tissue, RICH STRIKE. I have watched that race back a few times and I reckon the second and third placed horses riders were caught napping in the final furlong, Joel Rosario on the runner up EPICENTER thinking he had the race won, only to get caught in the last 75 yards. If that pair meet again, I’d lump on EPICENTER to beat RICH STRIKE cosy.
I think that win was a fluke and if he proves me wrong, he will not be the first to do that. I’ll go MO to reverse that form.
RON – MO DONEGAL
SEAN – RICH STRIKE E.W.
One banker for Royal Ascot week
RON – TRUESHAN – GOLD CUP….currently around 4/1, a winner of his last four starts, including a 4 ½ length beating of STRADIVARIUS in last season’s Prix Du Cadran, unbeaten in two at Ascot, the 4/1 is very nice.
SEAN – ROYAL SCOTSMAN – COVENTRY – E.W.
- LIZZIE JEAN – 14/1 > 9/2 – WON 7/2JT
- YAHTZEE – 13/2 > 9/2 – WON 2/1
- TRUE MASON – 16/1 > 7/1 – WON 13/2
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – KEMARI & CATTURA – WIN DOUBLE
SEAN – ROYAL SCOTSMAN AT ROYAL ASCOT NEXT WEEK (COVENTRY STAKES)