A very full Podcast this week with a look back at Royal Ascot, discussion about both Frankie and Hollie (Relax, nothing to do with going to Hollywood!), and the search for weekend winners, including the Irish Derby.
Please find below my side of the conversation, with Sean’s selection added for our hard of hearing members.
6.43pm The Curragh
Now this is a race that, if it were being run in my back garden, I’d close the curtains. At least punters can play e.w. three places.
In the last nine years this has gone to Aiden O’Brien six times and Joseph O’Brien twice. They are responsible for five of the eight runners.
The trip of 14 furlongs is alien to all but MASTER OF REALITY, who is 3-14 over it, and WORDSWORTH, who is 1-3.
MASTER OF REALITY seems to have an aversion to the Curragh as he has raced there seven times and has form figures reading 3, 5, 6, 2, 2, 13, 4 whereas WORDSWORTH has form figures at this track reading 2, 1, 3, 5, 3
Now, we have three 3-y-o’s in here, two of them trained by Aiden O’Brien, who has saddled three of that age to win this race in the last seven years.
Will either of them stay? I have absolutely no idea and the idea of parting with money to find out is not overly appealing.
If I was given stolen money I would not bet here but for Podcast purposes I’ll have to go with WORDSWORTH, even though he only ran at Royal Ascot a few days ago and he needs to have got over the race, and the travelling.
Ryan Moore rides and you would hope they’ve put him up on the first string….but who knows?
RON – WORDSWORTH
SEAN – WORDSWORTH
I am starting to take a bit more notice of the all-weather racing here as the Newmarket lads send decent runners up and this Group 3 is no exception.
They would have been better transferring the race down there and saving fuel….and the planet!
I only have six previous running’s of this race to work with but they do provide enough clues for me to arrive at a selection.
Only one winner bigger than 3/1, four winning favourites….three in the last four running’s and five of the six winners were front two in the market at the off.
I’m going to row in with MY ASTRA.
She has raced five times and gone off favourite for every race. Four of those races have been on turf and she has won three of them, placed in the other. Last time out she won a Listed raced by 12 lengths.
Her only defeat on turf came on heavy ground and her only run on an all-weather surface resulted in a defeat when she was third of seven.
The favourite, I should add, has never yet finished out of the first two in this race and she is a Placepot banker, if nothing else but I’ll say she beats the 1000Gns seventh, ROGUE MILLENIUM.
RON – MY ASTRA
SEAN – POPTRONIC E.W.
Juvenile races and I never see eye to eye, especially those that don’t produce solid trends.
When I’m working on such races, even for The Specials, I cringe…but this has me hiding behind the couch. Obviously they are all the same age, carrying the same weight so, my only port of call is the market.
Five of the last 10 winners went of favourite, or joint favourite, but four of the last eight winners returned SP’s of 25/1, 8/1, 9/1 and last year, 22/1.
The Hannon clan have won four of the last 10, Richard Junior nailing a pair of the last five, including that 22/1 shot.
His MINNETONKA opened short @ 6/4 but I’m now seeing 11/4 but markets this early are always wrong.
The last five winners arrived having won or finishing second last time out. Three of the last four winners had only seen a racecourse once and I’m going to suggest this lies between MINNETONKA and LEZOO.
They are trained by the blokes that trained the last two winners of this, Hannon and Beckett, both one run, both won. They are the only horses in this race that do qualify.
I’m going to run with MINNETONKA. Hannon has the third home in the race win by LEZOO at Bath and his horse is also a distance winner on debut.
Fair to say Hannon targets this race, too….nine runners, two winners, two placed.
Straight win for me.
RON – MINNETONKA
SEAN – MINNETONKA
Currently 12 going to post, which makes a pleasant change!
The 3-y-o’s perform well in this, given the low number that have tried to win it in the last 10 years. Only 14 of that age group have come for this, two have won, three have placed but the same can be said for 4-y-o’s which have seen 27 turn up, four win it and a further four placing.
The last 3-y-o to win it was KOROPICK in 2017 and before that, DANZENO in 2014.
I have to go with older horses based on the age trends.
Only two of the last 10 winners were outside the front five on the tissue and interestingly, the only two that went off clear favourite in the last decade, won at odds on.
We will not have an odds on shot on Saturday and so what I’m going to do is work with older horses, front five on the tissue, but not the favourite.
- GLEN SHIEL
The current odds allow a dutch but for a solo punt for Podcast purposes, I’ll put up SPYCATCHER.
I’m noticing that six of the last 10 winners arrived having failed to finish front four and only the Karl Burke runner fits that criteria.
SPYCATCHER opened 7/1 for this and is being supported so let’s go 20/80.
RON – SPYCATCHER – 20/80
SEAN – SENSE OF DUTY
What a horrible little runt of a race this has turned into.
Five runner Listed race, none having visited a winner’s enclosure this season, only a pair of them even placing and one of those is the 20/1 outsider, who probably finished second in a trolley dash around Tesco.
Godolphin and Appleby are responsible for the front two on the tissue, KEMARI and REBEL’S ROMANCE and the second named is currently put in a favourite…never won on the going as is currently described, never won at the trip….or the track.
The winner of this in 2020 UNIVERSAL ORDER, tries again and I’m thinking that, for a laugh, I put him up on account of his trainer’s brilliant record in the race.
David Simcock has sent five for this, won it with three but a word of warning. His yard is not in great form, a RTF%age figure of 50% not telling the whole truth. In the last 14 days he has sent out 12 runners….no winners.
Most likely Godolphin win it but I’ll take UNIVERSAL ORDER simply because of Simcock’s record in the race.
RON – UNIVERSAL ORDER
SEAN – KEMARI
In the last 10 years, if you had simply Dutched the front two in the market as they were loading the stalls, you would have achieved a profit nine times.
The winner, if the market is as it is now when they kick off, is one of LANEQASH or SUNRAY MAJOR.
You do not want to arrive a winner last time out, and as only one of the last 10 winners carried more than 9st 7lb, a horse you draw a stats line through is POGO….a winner last time out, carrying 9st 10lb.
Of the two named I’d have to go with SUNRAY MAJOR as he’s a five year old who didn’t finish front three last time out. LANEQASH is just four and only one of that age group has pulled this off in the last five years….and he placed last time we saw him….six of the last 10 winners didn’t do that.
All the trends point to the Gosden runner, who wears cheekpieces first time.
RON – SUNRAY MAJOR 20/80
SEAN – ART DU VAL E.W
£24K and just five runners. I do not have a market right now but what you want to be doing here is looking for a 4-y-o, trading front two on the tissue. Seven times in the last nine years Dutching the front pair would have produced a profit and also for the last five consecutive seasons, too.
Four year olds have won three of the last five.
The current tissue suggests the winner is one of MODERN NEWS and MY OBERON. The current odds produce a profit on the Dutch and I’m all for that but I have to go with the younger horse, MODERN NEWS. A previous course and distance winner, I know he’s officially 5lb wrong with the Haggas runner but he’s back in his right grade after running well last time out in a Group 3 and I’ll take him to win this.
RON – MODERN NEWS
SEAN – MY OBERON
3.45pm The Curragh
Very interesting that they’ve decided to put TUESDAY in against the boys and the second they did that, she was made favourite to win the Irish Derby.
That tells me two things. I’m right about the Epsom Derby being bog standard, and that TUESDAY, now having reached the age of three by birth date, is going to simply keep on improving.
I wonder if Gosden considered sending EMILY UPJOHN….she would have been odds on!
In my review of the Derby I said WESTOVER might well have won with a better run in the race but still sad to see Hornby jocked off.
Aiden O’Brien has won five of the last 10 Irish Derby’s and I think his not having a colt in it tells us he’ has no decent ones of this age, this year.
It is 9/1 bar the pair that ran at Epsom, 33/1 bar the front five on the current tissue and I’ll be stunned if one of TUESDAY/WESTOVER doesn’t win it.
I think WESTOVER will win the St Leger and is a stronger stayer that TUESDAY. I didn’t think we’d see her over further than 10 furlongs after Epsom and I’ll take the colt to beat her over 12 furlongs.
RON – WESTOVER
SEAN – WESTOVER
4.20pm The Curragh
A Group 3, seven runners, five of which have yet to hit the frame this season, including the current tissue favourite MAC SWINEY, who won last years Irish 2000Gns and has won nothing since.
Thing is, his form when losing is better than the form of those that have won recently?
He gives 3lb to the second favourite, RUMBLES OF THUNDER, and yet is officially rated 15lb the better horse.
MAC SWINEY has been taking in Group 1 races around the globe in recent times and if he cannot win this little Group 3 at home then I imagine he’ll be packed off to stud!
RON – MAC SWINEY
SEAN – MAC SWINEY
- PERFECT POWER – 6/1 > 4/1 – WON 7/2
- LATIN LOVER – 25/1 > 10/1 – WON 5/1
- CANDLEFORD 9/1 > 13/2 – AJERO – 25/1 > 10/1 – CONTACT 10/1 > 15/2 – 767/1 TRIFECTA!
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND
RON – WESTOVER / MAC SWINEY – E.W. DOUBLE
SEAN – WESTOVER