Plenty of chat, six races covered over the next two days and a selection from both Sean and myself which we hope pays for the weekend.
All the text of my side of the conversation below, for our hard of hearing listeners.
BAAEED won this last year, TILSIT the year before. One is now a superstar, the other has only won once since, and not seen since July last year.
In 2019 it was won by DUKE OF HAZARD, who won once more but has not won since his 3-y-o season.
I’m inclined to think the winner of this will emulate those winners that arrived before BAAEED!
Seven go to post, and as they are all 3-y-o’s, carrying 9st 3lb, so all I can do with this is look at previous winners and their market positions.
You need to be front three on the tissue and five of the last nine favourites have obliged so you have to think BAYSIDE BOY has a chance based on those stats. His form ain’t bad, either!
He may have been only seventh in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes but he was just two lengths off the winner….but a neck behind the current third best on the tissue, BERKSHIRE SHADOW.
I’m going with BERKSHIRE SHADOW. The reason being trainer form in this race. Varian trains the favourite and he has sent six for this, placed with three, no winners. Balding trains BERKSHIRE SHADOW and he has sent two for it, won with one.
Also, you ideally need to be arriving having won or placed last time out as eight of the last 10 winners had done so.
RON – BERKSHIRE SHADOW
SEAN – BAYSIDE BOY
A double figure field and I have given it a big hug!
However, from a trends perspective it is skewed like a skewed thing because BATTAASH won it four years on the bounce between 2-17 and 2020, and TAKE COVER won it twice….2014 and 2016.
All that makes it nigh on impossible for me to apply age groupings, market position and, as they all bar one carry in excess of 9st, weight ranges are null.
I recall watching EQUILATERAL running at Sandown on July 2nd, when he finished sixth to RAASEL, and thinking, “what an unlucky loser that was!” But he only wins in autumn, or winter….and only in winter because they’ve packed him off to Dubai.
I’m going to suggest MITBAAHY. He is one of those pesky 3-y-o’s and was second to RAASEL in that same Sandown race. Watch it back and you’ll see how unlucky he was, too!
The Racing Post says, “….not clear run from over 1f out, ridden when switched left and bumped inside final furlong, squeezed through and went second on far rail inside final 110 yards, ran on, did well in the circumstances”
Given a clean run he gets his revenge on RAASEL tomorrow and 3-y-o’s do well in this race. Only 38 have tried to win it in the last 10 years, three have done so, three more placing.
MITBAAHY for me.
RON – MITBAAHY
SEAN – PONNTOS E.W.
Sir Michael Stoute farmed this in recent times, three winners in 2016, 2017 and 2018. Given he has only sent five for this in the last decade, to win with three and place with another suggests he knows what he needs to have one involved at the finish.
Traditionally you want a four or five year old onside. They have won seven of the last 10.
Everything carts more than 9st so no clues there but the market does give us a clue or two. No winners priced bigger than 15/2 in the last decade and right now we have two market qualifiers:
- REBEL’S ROMANCE – 4-Y-O
- REGAL REALITY – 7-YO
The first named is clear favourite @ 13/8, and it’s 6/1 REGAL REALITY (the Stoute representative). It’s 8/1 bar the pair.
You could dutch to make a profit but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest a 20/80 REGAL REALITY.
The favourite has not won in the UK since 2020, four of his five wins to date coming on “sand”. The same thing applies to REGAL REALITY….not won since 2020 (it’s a bad race in truth), and I’d rather have 6/1 about a horse in a race like this, that 13/8.
That record Stoute has also suggests a run for my money.
RON – REGAL REALITY – 20/80
SEAN – REBEL’S ROMANCE
The third largest field on the Newmarket card on Saturday, as seven go to post. Newmarket has definitely fallen foul of the small field syndrome this season.
Three year olds have won six of the last 10 running’s of this….and also the last three and the pair of Gosden’s EMOTION and ELEGANT VERSE, are the ones interesting me most.
Since this market opened it’s EMOTION for money 12/1 > 7/2, and whilst the tissue favourite, ROSE OF KILDARE, has also seen plenty of interest 11/2 > 9/4F, she’s a five year old. Seven of that age have tried winning this in the last 10 years, only one has even placed.
Favourites also have a poor record, just two winning in that time span.
I’m going for EMOTION.
RON – EMOTION
SEAN – ROSE OF KILDARE
This should be very easy to sort out as the winner will be aged four or five, carrying more than 9st and trading front three on the tissue….four of the last five favourites….and six of the last nine….have won this race and everything points to SEA LA ROSA.
There has actually been just one winner priced bigger than 6/1 in the last 10 years and nothing bigger than 9/2 since 2016.
Several things suggest taking 13/8 is lunacy though. First, she arrives having been beaten last time out. Six of the last 10 winners, and three of the last four, arrived having won.
Second….Haggas cannot buy the winner of this race. He has sent five for it in those 10 years I work with and only one has placed.
Will she stay the 14 furlongs? She is the only runner in here never having tried it. Of those that have, only YESYES has won…1-2 at it.
The trainer of YESYES won this with 3-y-o in 2015 and from 10 entries has also saddled a pair to come second. Thing is, they are only offering you 7/1 about a horse that has been missing for 301 days….but that last run came in a French Group 1 when beaten five lengths and inches by LOVING DREAM.
In three runs at this trip or further, she has finished 1, 3, 7….if I must have a bet here, then I’d go 20/80 YESYES but to buttons.
The best horse at the weights is EMILY DICKINSON who is rated 3lb behind the favourite but gets 12lb.
I’ll go place only YESYES but to buttons.
RON – YESYES (PLACE ONLY)
SEAN – YESYES
Goodwood 3.20pm Stewards Cup
I will profile this but it’s all a bit like chucking dice up a table.
From an age grouping perspective, we learn nothing, as 3-y-o’s have won three, 4-y-o’s three and older horses four, of the last 10.
I do not want to be carrying less than 9st but neither do I want a horse carrying my bet, having more than 9st 6lb on it’s back, either.
Perhaps surprisingly, three of the last seven favourites have won and five o the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue, too.
Equally, I can tell you three of the last five winners returned SP’s of 25/1, 20/1 and 22/1.
Right now they go 10/1 the field but if I apply a few things to this, we might have something to punt.
Nothing older than six, nothing carrying less than 9st, nothing carrying more than 9st 6lb. Nothing priced bigger than 20/1. Drawn low, or drawn high….not middle.
Four of the last six winners were drawn 4, 1, 4, 3….another four drawn 26, 22, 25, 23
- INVER PARK (15)
- WHENTHEDEALISDONE (25)
- FIRST FOLIO (4)
- POPMASTER (3)
They are all positioned spot on in the market and right now, I’m liking POPMASTER, drawn in three. INVER PARK, the tissue favourite, has 15 and slap bang middle is dodgy ground.
For Podcast purposes, Ed Walkers gelding gets a shekel e.w. thrown at it but a dutch WHENTHEDEALISDONE, FIRST FOLIO and POPMASTER looks a play.
RON – POPMASTER 20/80
SEAN – COMMANCHE FALLS E.W.
- OSCULA – 14/1 > 5/1 – WON 10/3F
- LORD RIDDIFOR – 16/1 > 8/1 – WON 10/1
- SANDRINE – 20/1 > 12/1 – WON 12/1
Something for the weekend
RON – MITBAAHY
SEAN – LETHAL LEVI