Please find below the text of my side of the Podcast chat with Sean’s selections added to each of the races discussed plus, his Something for the Weekend!
A good size field for this Group 3 with 10 runners currently going to post.
I’m seeing no age trends here other than I don’t want to be with anything aged older than five. Three, four- and five-year-olds have dominated this in the last decade.
They all carry 9st 7lb so my next port of call has to be the markets.
Six of the last 10 winners, and the last three, went off a single figure price, and we’ve had two winning favourites in the last three years, too.
That lot automatically narrows this down to a pair:
- GROCER JACK
The first named was having his third run for Haggas last time out and I wrote in my notebook, “the most impressive winner I have seen this season”.
He took a Listed race apart, winning it by nine lengths and looked Group 1 material in doing it. That got him an official rating of 118 which means that ANMAAT, rated 109, has to give him 9lb tomorrow.
GROCER JACK has an entry in the Champion Stakes at the end of the season and the 33/1 he is currently priced up at for that Group 1, will go up in smoke if he wins this by nine lengths!
Has to be GROCER JACK for me.
RON – GROCER JACK
SEAN – GROCER JACK
3.15pm The Curragh
UK trainers have won two of the last six running’s of this and are well represented tomorrow. They saddle two of the front three in the market and three of the first eight on that tissue.
It’s another good, competitive race, with 12 going to post as I type, and I’m seeing a definite age bias towards three and four year olds, eight of the last 10 winners heading their way.
We do get the odd long priced winner, two of the last three winners priced 16/1 and 12/1 but usually it’s something currently trading shorter than 11/2. In fact, six of the last 10 winners returned SP’s shorter than 9/2.
Right now my trends narrow this down to GO BEARS GO and the Ger Lyons trained POWER UNDER ME.
On official figures there should be a cigarette paper between them and because of that, and the current tissue prices, GO BEARS GO 11/4 and POWER UNDER ME 9/2, I have to go with the Irish trained horse 20/80.
Trainer RTF%age figures also suggest that Lyons (56%) has his running better than Loughnane (39%) right now and if he hits the frame, I draw a profit.
RON – POWER UNDER ME – 20/80
SEAN – GO BEARS GO
Lovely. A double figure field Handicap for me to get stuck into. Obviously the figures will go out to subscribed members tomorrow and if the run of recent results they are producing continues, we’ll draw a profit.
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For Podcast purposes I’ll produce Scribblings.
Six of the nine running’s of this have been aged four. Twenty five of that age group have tried to win this in those nine years and four more have also placed.
The logical selection….I stress again for Podcast purposes only, is A BOY NAMED IVY. Four years of age, drawn in stall one, a previous course and distance winner, and Michael Dodds has sent five for this, placed with three so the 20/80 @ 13/2 looks pretty well sure to produce a profit off the “80”.
Like I say, check the Ratings tomorrow and if top three, have a proper punt.
RON – A BOY NAMED IVY – 20/80
SEAN – PARK STREET E.W.
Another double figure field….we are being spoiled this weekend!
Nine of the last 10 winners of this were aged three or four. Prior to 2018 the younger horses dominated it, winning six on the bounce but the last four years have seen three go to four-year-olds, one to a five year old.
Interestingly, the market in the last five years has produced a winning favourites.
Now comes the conundrum.
The front four on the tissue right now are 3-y-o’s and they are all trained by Newmarket trainers, who have dominated this winning the last nine of them.
The draw on slower ground at Haydock tends to favour lower drawn runners and seven of the last 10 winners were drawn six, or lower.
The only horse winking at me right now is OSCULA, who did us a good turn last time out at Goodwood, an OMM 14/1 > 5/1, that won @ 10/3F
Ultra consistent, hard as nails, and a bargain buy at 4000GNS, I’ll take her to win again.
RON – OSCULA
SEAN – OSCULA
Me and juvenile races will never get on for obvious reasons and here we have nine of the critters lining up, none of which has ever raced more than three times. Three have only seen a racecourse once!
So, 2-y-o’s, all carrying 9st 2lb and all I can do is look to see what the market made of it. We had a 66/1 winner two seasons back and a 10/1 winner in 2017 but generally speaking you do not want a price tag bigger than 7/1 and you also want to be trained by either Mark Johnston (three of the last eight winners and two of the last four), or Richard Hannon (two of the last six winners).
We have a Mark Johnston runner, LAKOTA SIOUX, currently the 10/3f and with nothing else trends/stats related for me to work with, that filly gets my vote.
She broke her maiden winning by over six lengths before running a cracker in the Chesham finishing third @ 33/1. It could be said that form is pants because the winner, second and fourth, fifth have all been beaten since but I’ll put it up….not betting a bean though!
RON – LAKOTA SIOUX
SEAN – NOVAKAI
4.15pm The Curragh
Hollie Doyle has been given the leg up again on BRADSELL, the easy winner of this season’s Coventry Stakes which, unlike the Chesham, has seen the form franked by the runner up who recently won a Group 2 easily.
That horse, PERSIAN FORCE, is currently third favourite tomorrow, BRADSELL trading the 7/4 favourite, with the Aiden O’Brien runner LITTLE BIG BEAR, a winner of his last three, the 5/2 second favourite.
One heck of a race this but I’m definitely favourite the Coventry form over the Windsor Castle won by Aiden’s horse. He beat ROCKET RODNEY by a neck that day and that horse failed at Group 3 level last time up.
I have to go with BRADSELL to confirm form with PERSIAN FORCE as that was just the second run for the Watson trained colt and I see no reason why he will not beat the runner up again.
RON – BRADSELL
SEAN – SHARTASH
- REEL ROSIE – 14/1 > 5/1 – WON 11/2
- GEORGIA MADELAINE – 11/1 > 7/2 – WON 10/3
- MISS ATTITUDE – 10/1 > 5/1 – WON 16/1
Something for the weekend!
RON – A BOY NAMED IVY 20/80
SEAN – OSCULA