A Podcast full of things to think about and are the OMMS the reason we may lose BOG?
Please find the text of my side of the racing chat below, with Sean’s selections added.
I’m sorry Oisin Murphy isn’t riding here because he has won three of the last four of these, for different trainers….I wonder which trainer his agent would have been calling?
Punters thinking of getting involved here need to be aware we’ve seen five of the last eight winners returning SP’s of 10/1 or bigger, and that includes four of the last five winners.
I am not a fan of juvenile races, as you know. That’s because I know nothing like enough about them. Going back to our conversation earlier about horses not maturing until they are five years of age, the improvement a horse can show after one or two runs makes them impossible to predict.
If I apply trends….or try to….all I have here is previous market position because they are all 2-y-o’s carrying the same weight.
If I try to use just the markets I’m seeing three winning favourites in the first five of the last 10 running’s, before the market became clueless and we saw these big priced winners.
I have spotted a couple of things that have me looking at a double figure priced one.
The current favourite is MAYLANDSEA at around 5/2…not to be taken as Gospel right now but that’s what I have. However, he went off 11/5 last time, finished last of six, with CARMELA over two lengths ahead of the Bell trained filly.
Now this is silly, I know, but what else can I do here?….four of the last five winners have been named just one word, consisting of no fewer than six letters and no more than seven. They have all been a double figure price.
CARMELA is 12/1, ridden by Hollie Doyle and was ridden in that previous race by her now husband, Tom Marquand, so he’ll hopefully have been telling his missus a little about the horse. I ask the question though, why is the horse that finished two plus lengths behind her 5/2 favourite, with 12/1 available about Loughnane’s filly? Obviously her Queen Mary second is the best form here but she blew out big time next time out and I wonder was she simply an early juvenile who is now going backwards?
I’d not have a bet in a race like this to save my life but for Podcast purposes, I’ll suggest CARMELA 20/80 but definitely advise you wait until you see what the OMMS tell us.
RON – CARMELA 20/80
SEAN – MAYLANDSEA
Joseph O’Brien won this last year with SNAPRAETEREA, who runs again this year. However, the ground in 2021 soft, whilst tomorrow, it’ll be much faster and he’s 0-7 on the genuine good ground they say they have right now.
The trainer is also represented by the 6-y-o SAN ANDREAS and, as only one horse older than five has won this in the last 10 years, I have to rule both out.
Before 2020 this race went to seven favourites in the previous eight years, and it was won by six of them on the bounce 2014 – 2019 inclusive.
Six of the last seven winners were aged three, or four and eight of the last 10 winners also carried more than 9st.
The most logical selection right now would be MUTASARREF. He is the current favourite, a 4-y-o, and is 3-5 ground, 4-6 trip.
His trainer, Ger Lyons, won this with BRENDAN BRACKEN back in 2014, ridden by Colin Keane, and I think that pair will do it again.
RON – MUTASARREF
SEAN – CIGAMIA
Three year olds have dominated this in the last decade, winning eight of the last 10 renewals.
Dermot Weld (6), and Aiden O’Brien (3) have won nine of those last 10 races and with Weld not represented here, I must select the currently unbeaten 3-y-o PEROTAN, trained by O’Brien and ridden by Wayne Lordan, who rode the filly to win last time out at Down Royal.
She drops back in trip tomorrow but won over 12 furlongs on debut. However, that was on soft ground and her win over 14 furlongs came on good. It could be she has her ground but not her trip?
Six of the last nine winners all carried less than 9st and only two of the last 10 winners went off bigger than 6/1.
PEROTAN is currently the 10/3 second favourite, is unexposed, unbeaten in two previous races, racing for the top yard in Ireland and I see no reason to oppose her.
RON – PEROTAN
SEAN – PEROTAN
Newbury 1.55pm (5 runners)
Another juvenile race and given how I work, a nightmare. Now only five go to post and if I tell you the winner is usually found in the front four on the tissue, you’re going to think, “he’s being a smart wotsit!”.
The favourite has won six of the last nine and I’m going to assume that will be VICTORY DANCE who is the best horse in here, “officially”.
But how good are the three at the bottom of the weights, that arrive here unbeaten so far?
My selection here is simply “unnamed favourite”. Whichever the market points to is the one I’ll be with but I’d not bet a bean on it.
RON – UNNAMED FAVOURITE
SEAN – FERRARI QUEEN
Newbury 2.30pm (5 runners)
Have you ever seen a worse Group 3 paying £40k to the winner? It should have been sent to it’s room and told it was not getting any dinner!
Another five runner race, this time over very nearly 14 furlongs and if they have this heat, they go no pace, it’ll turn into a sprint and the form will be worth absolutely nowt….plus we’ll have most likely backed a loser.
No horse arrives here for this race in any form at all.
Seven of the last 10 winners were front three on the tissue (me being a smart “wotsit” again) and only OUTBOX has won over this trip. I’m thinking though, that ZECHARIAH has improved for it and, if they go a crawl, and having been beaten only six + lengths in the Craven by NATIVE TRAIL, he might be the one with a bit of speed about him.
He is the most likely favourite, his nose defeat at big odds in the Queens Vase is probably the best form on offer and purely because we’ve turned up to do the Podcast, I’ll put him up
RON – ZECHARIAH
SEAN – ZECHARIAH
Newbury 3.00pm (7 runners)
A little handicap has been thrown into the mix and I’ll have figures for it on the day (if all seven go to post) and I note Clive Cox has won the last two running’s of this race, both aged three. He saddles DANCE FEVER, aged five, who has only won a pair of his 14 career starts on turf to date, finishing placed six times….clearly prefers running with the herd as opposed to leading it. Probably better on all weather tracks, where he is 2-4.
Cox has actually has two winners and two placed from six runners in this, in the last decade and whilst I need to see how the market forms tomorrow evening, if I were betting now it would be a place only DANCE FEVER.
RON – DANCE FEVER (PLACE ONLY)
SEAN – DANCE FEVER
The Curragh 3.30pm (7 runners)
I have issues with juveniles races, as you will have already gathered and here we have seven of the critters going to post, a few already exposed though.
Age and weight ranges tell me nothing but what does is who trained previous winners.
Ger Lyons has targeted this race….and farmed it. He has saddled he last two winners and, five of the last eight. On Saturday he saddles MAUIEWOWIE, a winner on debut, who subsequently ran well to finish second to the Alice Haynes trained LADY HOLLYWOOD.
He was beaten at slight odds on that day but the English raider is very well thought of and MAUIEWOWIE finished clear of the third best.
Eight of the last 10 winners have gone off 3/1 or shorter and whilst I have no tissue for this race right now, if the Lyons runner first the bill from the market perspective, that’s my selection.
RON – MAUIEWOWIE
SEAN – BADB
Newbury 3.35pm (10 runners)
The only proper race being run on Saturday but every horse is currently on the drift.
It could be lightning fast ground by the time the gates open but something has to win it and all I can do is cast the runes and see what happens.
It’ll be won by a three or four year old. They have won nine of the last 10, with six going to those older horses. Thirteen of the 29 runners that have represented four year olds in the last 10 years have won (6), or placed (7).
Seven have carried no more than 9st 6lb but no less than 9st and, the returned SP’s of the last 10 winners suggests 6/1 or shorter is our price range. The last four winners all returned 6/1 or shorter as have six of the last 10 winners.
William Haggas has trained two of the last seven winners but considering he has only saddled three for the race in the last 10 years, 2-3 is red hot….he saddles the current 3-Y-O favourite TIBER FLOW.
If we accept the runes speak true, then this rests between that one, and CHINDIT.
Hannon, the trainer of that one, has sent five for this in the last decade and only managed to have one hit the frame.
With absolutely no confidence at all, I’ll pop TIBER FLOW up for a 20/80 but it’s another race I want to see how the market is reacting to underfoot conditions, before betting.
RON – TIBER FLOW
SEAN – TIBER FLOW
The Curragh 4.40pm (6 runners)
Only six runners, two trained by Joseph O’Brien, one by Aiden and another by Donnacha O’Brien.
Aiden won seven of these on the bounce between 2014 and 2020 inclusive before that run was stopped last year by Joseph.
We have seen no winner bigger than 5/1….TWILIGHT PAYMENT last year being that 5/1 winner….who also just happened to be the oldest winner at the age of eight, to have seen the winners enclosure in the last decade.
Generally you want to be with three and four year olds but I need to have a bet in a race like this, like I need a hole in the head. The best of the three year olds would appear to be TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS, who won for Aiden at Chester, before then transferring to Joseph. Aiden saddles HONEYCOMBE who, to date, looks worse than bog standard.
Beaten 22 lengths in a maiden last time out on soft ground over 12 furlongs, on Saturday they go up to 14 furlongs on good. What difference will that make? You tell me.
I have to put one up so will say TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS but again, with absolutely no confidence in the horse at all.
RON – TEMPLE OF ARTEMIS
SEAN – SEARCH FOR A SONG
- BAILEYSGUTFEELING – 6/1 > 4/1 > 3/1 (STRONG) – WON 3/1
- SILVER DOLLAR – 10/1 > 7/1 – WON 8/1
- DOUBLE LEGEND – 12/1 > 11/2 > 10/1 – WON 22/1
SOMETHING FOR THE WEEKEND?
RON – ZECHARIAH / MAUIEWOWIE – E.W. DOUBLESEAN – SEARCH FOR A SONG